Comment on “Exceptionally high heat flux needed to sustain the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream” by Smith-Johnsen et al. (2020)

Smith-Johnsen et al. (The Cryosphere, 14, 841–854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-841-2020, 2020) model the effect of a potential hotspot on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS). They argue that a heat flux of at least 970 mW m−2 is required to have initiated or to control NEGIS. Such an exceptionally high heat flux would be unique in the world and is incompatible with known geological processes that can raise the heat flux. Fast flow at NEGIS must thus be possible without the extraordinary melt rates invoked in Smith-Johnsen et al. (2020)

Can changes in deformation regimes be inferred from crystallographic preferred orientations in polar ice?

Creep due to ice flow is generally thought to be the main cause for the formation of crystallographic preferred orientations (CPOs) in polycrystalline anisotropic ice. However, linking the development of CPOs to the ice flow history requires a proper understanding of the ice aggregate's microstructural response to flow transitions. In this contribution the influence of ice deformation history on the CPO development is investigated by means of full-field numerical simulations at the microscale. We simulate the CPO evolution of polycrystalline ice under combinations of two consecutive deformation events up to high strain, using the code VPFFT (visco-plastic fast Fourier transform algorithm) within ELLE. A volume of ice is first deformed under coaxial boundary conditions, which results in a CPO. The sample is then subjected to different boundary conditions (coaxial or non-coaxial) in order to observe how the deformation regime switch impacts the CPO. The model results indicate that the second flow event tends to destroy the first, inherited fabric with a range of transitional fabrics. However, the transition is slow when crystallographic axes are critically oriented with respect to the second imposed regime. Therefore, interpretations of past deformation events from observed CPOs must be carried out with caution, particularly in areas with complex deformation histories

Can changes in deformation regimes be inferred from crystallographic preferred orientations in polar ice?

Creep due to ice flow is generally thought to be the main cause for the formation of crystallographic preferred orientations (CPOs) in polycrystalline anisotropic ice. However, linking the development of CPOs to the ice flow history requires a proper understanding of the ice aggregate's microstructural response to flow transitions. In this contribution the influence of ice deformation history on the CPO development is investigated by means of full-field numerical simulations at the microscale. We simulate the CPO evolution of polycrystalline ice under combinations of two consecutive deformation events up to high strain, using the code VPFFT (visco-plastic fast Fourier transform algorithm) within ELLE. A volume of ice is first deformed under coaxial boundary conditions, which results in a CPO. The sample is then subjected to different boundary conditions (coaxial or non-coaxial) in order to observe how the deformation regime switch impacts the CPO. The model results indicate that the second flow event tends to destroy the first, inherited fabric with a range of transitional fabrics. However, the transition is slow when crystallographic axes are critically oriented with respect to the second imposed regime. Therefore, interpretations of past deformation events from observed CPOs must be carried out with caution, particularly in areas with complex deformation histories

Das Konzept für ein FDM-Kompetenznetzwerk an der Universität zu Köln

Forschungsdatenmanagement (FDM) hat sich innerhalb der letzten Jahre zunehmend als integraler Bestandteil von Forschungsprozessen etabliert. Durch diesen Umstand stellt es eine gemeinschaftliche Herausforderung in einem komplexen sozio-technologischen Umfeld dar. Das 2018 an der Universität zu Köln (UzK) gegründete Cologne Competence Center for Research Data Management (C3RDM) legt u. a. einen Fokus auf die stärkere Vernetzung der FDM-Akteur*innen auf dem Campus. Diese erscheint notwendig, da FDM an vielen Stellen der Universität in einer nur sehr lose gekoppelten Art und Weise stattfindet, bspw. in Forschungsprojekten, in Instituten, an Fakultäten usw. Der hier vorgestellte Ansatz geht von den zentralen Infrastruktureinrichtungen (Universitäts- und Stadtbibliothek, Regionales Rechenzentrum, Forschungsmanagement) aus, die im C3RDM kooperieren und ein strukturelles Modell für ein universitätsweites FDM konzipieren sollen, das sowohl Policies, Entwicklungskonzepte, als auch ein Service-Portfolio zum FDM umfasst. Die bereits vorhandenen und noch aufzubauenden Services auf Seiten des C3RDM sollen möglichst generisch sein und in die Breite wirken. Für den weiteren Aufbau ist es außerdem wichtig, eine gezielte Vernetzung zwischen allen Stakeholdern voranzutreiben, um Fachspezifika und lokale Strukturen zu berücksichtigen. Zur systematischen Förderung des fakultätsübergreifenden Erfahrungsaustausches zwischen den FDM-Akteur*innen gibt das C3RDM zukünftig Impulse, um Synergien zu identifizieren und nachhaltige FDM-Strukturen aufzubauen. Ausgehend von einem generischen FDM-Service-Portfolio präsentieren wir ein initiales Konzept für die Vernetzung an der UzK und erste Erfahrungen bei deren Umsetzung. Bei der Größe des Standortes und der Komplexität der Aufgabe ist eine wichtige Charakteristik in diesem Zusammenhang der experimentelle Charakter, d. h., die iterative Erprobung und Anpassung an spezifische Bedingungen (lokal oder fachspezifisch)

Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions

Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes

Genetic insights into resting heart rate and its role in cardiovascular disease

Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development

Genome-wide analysis in over 1 million individuals of European ancestry yields improved polygenic risk scores for blood pressure traits

Hypertension affects more than one billion people worldwide. Here we identify 113 novel loci, reporting a total of 2,103 independent genetic signals (P < 5 × 10−8) from the largest single-stage blood pressure (BP) genome-wide association study to date (n = 1,028,980 European individuals). These associations explain more than 60% of single nucleotide polymorphism-based BP heritability. Comparing top versus bottom deciles of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) reveals clinically meaningful differences in BP (16.9 mmHg systolic BP, 95% CI, 15.5–18.2 mmHg, P = 2.22 × 10−126) and more than a sevenfold higher odds of hypertension risk (odds ratio, 7.33; 95% CI, 5.54–9.70; P = 4.13 × 10−44) in an independent dataset. Adding PRS into hypertension-prediction models increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) from 0.791 (95% CI, 0.781–0.801) to 0.826 (95% CI, 0.817–0.836, ∆AUROC, 0.035, P = 1.98 × 10−34). We compare the 2,103 loci results in non-European ancestries and show significant PRS associations in a large African-American sample. Secondary analyses implicate 500 genes previously unreported for BP. Our study highlights the role of increasingly large genomic studies for precision health research