METHODOLOGY OF MODELLING: SIMULATION OF URBAN SCENARIOS

ABSTRACTUrbanization has led to a series of problems in medium and large cities, resulting from a lack of planning and technologies to support decision making. This work aims to contribute to the methodology of modeling by cellular automata, aiming the study of the processes that condition the expansion of the urban area. Having as a study case of the municipality of Novo Hamburgo, RS, Brazil. For this purpose, the urban areas of 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, 2009 and 2015 were used, totalling a historical analysis of 48 years, besides the thematic maps: Declivities, Hypsometric, Land Use, Water Resources and Road System. The compiled data was inserted in the environment of the platform Dinamica EGO, which is a free software that uses the system of Cellular Automata. The software employs a set of input maps composed of an initial landscape, a final landscape and a compilation of thematic variables that are combined from the definition of weights of evidence to generate the transition probability maps. The results showed similarity indexes of 0.9 for the first three models, 1977, 1987 and 1997, as well as 0.83 for the simulation of 2015. It was also possible to analyze the predominant factors for each expansion process, besides the simulation of areas of prognosis for short and medium term, that is, 5, 10 and 15 years.Keywords: Urban expansion. Simulation of scenarios. Cellular automata.RESUMOA urbanização alavancou uma série de problemas nas cidades de médio e grande porte, resultado da falta de planejamento e de tecnologias para apoiar a tomada de decisões. Neste sentido, este trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir para a metodologia de modelagem por autômatos celulares, visando o estudo dos processos que condicionam a expansão da mancha urbana. Tendo como estudo de caso o município de Novo Hamburgo, RS. Para tanto foram utilizadas as manchas urbana de 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, 2009 e 2015, totalizando uma análise histórica de 48 anos, além dos mapas temáticos: Declividades, Hipsométrico, Uso do Solo, Recursos Hídricos e Sistema Viário. Os dados compilados foram inseridos no ambiente da plataforma Dinamica EGO, que é um software livre que utiliza o sistema de Autômatos Celulares. O software, emprega um conjunto de mapas de entrada, composto por uma paisagem inicial, uma paisagem final e um compilado de variáveis temáticas que são combinadas a partir da definição de pesos de evidência visando gerar os mapas de probabilidade de transição. Os resultados apresentaram índices de similaridade superior 0,9 para as três primeiras modelagem 1977, 1987 e 1997, além de 0,83 para a simulação de 2015. Também foi possível analisar os fatores predominantes para cada processo de expansão, além da simulação de manchas de prognóstico para curto e médio prazo, ou seja 5, 10 e 15 anos. Palavras-chave: Expansão urbana. Simulação de cenários. Autômatos celulares

MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND USE OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN RAW WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT

This study aimed to apply a methodology for evaluating raw water quality and its relationship with land uses and occupations through multivariate statistical analysis and Geographic Information System. Hydrogenic potential, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and E. coli were monitored from August 2012 until March 2013. The geoprocessing tool enabled delimiting the contribution areas of each sampling site, as well as the individual identification of land use of each area. Principal Component Analysis resulted in: domestic sewage, domestic sewage/agriculture, and industrial discharge. Significant correlations were identified between the variable urban area and hydrogenionic potential (ρ = 0.446; p = 0.049), dissolved oxygen (ρ = -0.625; p = 0.003), total nitrogen (ρ = 0.649; p = 0.002), and E. coli (ρ = 0.932; p < 0.001). The methodology enabled to identify the contribution of land use factors as to water quality

Source apportionment of metallic elements in urban atmospheric particulate matter and assessment of its water-soluble fraction toxicity

Clean air is essential for the maintenance of human life and environmental balance. The atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is one of the main air pollutants and is characterized by the heterogeneity of its composition, being able to accumulate numerous components, such as metallic elements, which contribute to increasing its toxicity. The objectives of this study were to assess of the air quality in two urban environments, to carry out the source apportionment of the metallic elements Al, Ba, Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, and Zn in the PM2.5 and PM2.5-10, and evaluate the toxicity of PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 water-soluble fractions using Lactuca sativa as bioindicator. The collection of PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 was performed using a dichotomous stacked filter unit (SFU) sampler. The source apportionment was carried out using the EPA PMF 5.0 receptor model and the toxicity tests followed the EPA Ecological Effects Test Guidelines OPPTS 850.4200: Seed Germination/Root Elongation Toxicity Test. The source apportionment demonstrated that vehicular and industrial emissions are the main anthropogenic sources contributing to the concentration of metallic elements to thePM(2.5) and PM2.5-10. The studied sites did not show statistically significant differences in terms of phytotoxicity to the Lactuca sativa seeds. Cd and Cu were identified as the main metallic elements which able to cause negative effects on seed germination and root elongation, respectively. The presence of cadmium and copper in the atmospheric particulate matter is one of the main causes of the phytotoxicity affecting the Lactuca sativa seed germination and root elongationCAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal e Nível Superior26/201