Do CMIP6 Climate Models Simulate Global or Regional Compound Events Skillfully?

Compound events have the potential to cause high socioeconomic and environmental losses. We examine the ability of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models to capture two bivariate compound events: the co-occurrence of heavy rain and strong wind, and heat waves and meteorological drought. We evaluate the models over North America, Europe, Eurasia, and Australia using observations and reanalysis data set spanning 1980-2014. Some of the CMIP6 models capture the return periods of both bivariate compound events over North America, Europe, and Eurasia surprisingly well but perform less well over Australia. For heavy rain and strong wind, this poor performance was particularly clear in northern Australia which suggests limits in simulating tropical and extratropical cyclones, local convection, and mesoscale convective systems. We did not find higher model resolution improved performance in any region. Overall, our results show some CMIP6 models can be used to examine compound events, particularly over North America, Europe, and Eurasia. Plain Language Summary Compound events, such as the co-occurrence of heavy rain and strong wind or heat waves and drought, can have major economic, social, and environmental consequences. We therefore ask the question whether the new generation of climate models represented by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) can simulate the occurrence of these important events. We found that some of the CMIP6 models do simulate these compound events surprisingly well over North America, Europe, and Eurasia. Unfortunately, they perform less well over Australia which is likely associated with the problem of simulating extratropical cyclones, local convection, and mesoscale convective systems. Our results suggest that some CMIP6 models can be used to examine these two compound events particularly over North America, Europe, and Eurasia. Key Points . Some CMIP6 models reproduce observed return periods of co-occurring rain and wind extremes and co-occurring heat waves and droughts well CMIP6 models simulate these compound events over North America, Europe, or Eurasia with similar levels of skill CMIP6 models simulate these compound events over Australia with lower skill than the other regions analyzedThe research was funded by the Australian Research Council Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) and was support-ed in part by the New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry and Environment

Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events

Compound events (CEs) are weather and climate events that result from multiple hazards or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic impacts. Compared with isolated hazards, the multiple hazards/drivers associated with CEs can lead to higher economic losses and death tolls. Here, we provide the first analysis of multiple multivariate CEs potentially causing high-impact floods, droughts, and fires. Using observations and reanalysis data during 1980–2014, we analyse 27 hazard pairs and provide the first spatial estimates of their occurrences on the global scale. We identify hotspots of multivariate CEs including many socio-economically important regions such as North America, Russia and western Europe. We analyse the relative importance of different multivariate CEs in six continental regions to highlight CEs posing the highest risk. Our results provide initial guidance to assess the regional risk of CE events and an observationally-based dataset to aid evaluation of climate models for simulating multivariate CEs.The research was funded by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) and was supported in part by the New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. H.X.D. is currently funded by School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan (U064474). J.Z. acknowledges funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (Ambizione grant 179876). N.N.R. and J.Z. acknowledge the European COST Action DAMOCLES (CA17109)

Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events

Compound events (CEs) are weather and climate events that result from multiple hazards or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic impacts. Compared with isolated hazards, the multiple hazards/drivers associated with CEs can lead to higher economic losses and death tolls. Here, we provide the first analysis of multiple multivariate CEs potentially causing high-impact floods, droughts, and fires. Using observations and reanalysis data during 1980–2014, we analyse 27 hazard pairs and provide the first spatial estimates of their occurrences on the global scale. We identify hotspots of multivariate CEs including many socio-economically important regions such as North America, Russia and western Europe. We analyse the relative importance of different multivariate CEs in six continental regions to highlight CEs posing the highest risk. Our results provide initial guidance to assess the regional risk of CE events and an observationally-based dataset to aid evaluation of climate models for simulating multivariate CEs

A typology of compound weather and climate events

Compound weather and climate events describe combinations of multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Although many climate-related disasters are caused by compound events, the understanding, analysis, quantification and prediction of such events is still in its infancy. In this Review, we propose a typology of compound events and suggest analytical and modelling approaches to aid in their investigation. We organize the highly diverse compound event types according to four themes: preconditioned, where a weather-driven or climate-driven precondition aggravates the impacts of a hazard; multivariate, where multiple drivers and/or hazards lead to an impact; temporally compounding, where a succession of hazards leads to an impact; and spatially compounding, where hazards in multiple connected locations cause an aggregated impact. Through structuring compound events and their respective analysis tools, the typology offers an opportunity for deeper insight into their mechanisms and impacts, benefiting the development of effective adaptation strategies. However, the complex nature of compound events results in some cases inevitably fitting into more than one class, necessitating soft boundaries within the typology. Future work must homogenize the available analytical approaches into a robust toolset for compound-event analysis under present and future climate conditions.Jakob Zscheischler, Olivia Martius, Seth Westra, Emanuele Bevacqua, Colin Raymond, Radley M. Horton ... et al

Patterns, processes and vulnerability of Southern Ocean benthos: a decadal leap in knowledge and understanding

In the Southern Ocean, that is areas south of the Polar Front, long-term oceanographic cooling, geographic separation, development of isolating current and wind systems, tectonic drift and fluctuation of ice sheets amongst others have resulted in a highly endemic benthic fauna, which is generally adapted to the long-lasting, relatively stable environmental conditions. The Southern Ocean benthic ecosystem has been subject to minimal direct anthropogenic impact (compared to elsewhere) and thus presents unique opportunities to study biodiversity and its responses to environmental change. Since the beginning of the century, research under the Census of Marine Life and International Polar Year initiatives, as well as Scientific Committee of Antarctic Research biology programmes, have considerably advanced our understanding of the Southern Ocean benthos. In this paper, we evaluate recent progress in Southern Ocean benthic research and identify priorities for future research. Intense efforts to sample and describe the benthic fauna, coupled with coordination of information in global databases, have greatly enhanced understanding of the biodiversity and biogeography of the region. Some habitats, such as chemosynthetic systems, have been sampled for the first time, while application of new technologies and methods are yielding new insights into ecosystem structure and function. These advances have also highlighted important research gaps, notably the likely consequences of climate change. In a time of potentially pivotal environmental change, one of the greatest challenges is to balance conservation with increasing demands on the Southern Ocean's natural resources and services. In this context, the characterization of Southern Ocean biodiversity is an urgent priority requiring timely and accurate species identifications, application of standardized sampling and reporting procedures, as well as cooperation between disciplines and nations. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.0SCOPUS: re.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe