Experience with Carbon Taxes and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Systems

Carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETSs) to limit emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are increasingly common. At the end of 2015, 17 GHG ETSs were operational in 55 jurisdictions, and 18 jurisdictions collected at least one carbon tax. This paper assesses the performance of carbon taxes and ETSs with respect to environmental effectiveness (reduction of emissions regulated by the instrument), cost-effectiveness (marginal abatement cost), economic efficiency, public finance, and administrative issues. Data on emissions subject to carbon taxes are rarely reported. We estimate the taxed emissions for 17 taxes in 12 jurisdictions from 1991 through the end of 2015. All 17 taxes have reduced emissions relative to business-as-usual. Six of the jurisdictions actually reduced emissions, although in at least three of those jurisdictions the reductions appear to be due to other policies. The small sizes of reduction in almost all 17 cases are partially due to the low tax rates; the modest and uncertain changes in tax rates over time; and the limited response of taxed sources, such as fossil fuels, to price changes. Actual emissions declined for at least six of 10 ETSs. Other policies and developments, such as the 2009 recession, contributed to the reductions, but estimates of the share of the reduction attributable to the instrument are rare. All of the ETSs have accumulated banks of surplus allowances and most have implemented measures to reduce these banks. On average, the marginal cost of compliance is substantially lower for ETSs than carbon taxes. ETS experience has been shared bilaterally and via dedicated institutions. As a result, most ETSs have increased the share of allowances auctioned; adopted declining emissions caps; specified future caps and floor prices several years into the future; shifted to benchmarking for free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) sources; reduced accessibility to foreign offset credits; and established market stability reserves. By contrast, there is little evidence of shared learning and virtually no change to the design of carbon taxes. We found no jurisdiction that routinely tracks the taxed emissions. Very few jurisdictions regularly assess the effectiveness of the tax in achieving emission reductions. Additionally, adjustments to the tax rate often are unpredictable after an introductory period of three to five years. Both instruments reduce emissions, but ETSs have performed better than carbon taxes on the principal criteria of environmental effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Many jurisdictions have implemented both a carbon tax and a GHG ETS, and every jurisdiction that has adopted either instrument has also implemented other policies. More research is needed to improve the design of both instruments and their interaction with non-market-based carbon policies because the use of multiple instruments produces complex interactive and distributional effects. While economically inefficient, market-based policies should be supplemented by non-market-based policies to ensure sustained political support

Optimal Time-Series Selection of Quasars

We present a novel method for the optimal selection of quasars using time-series observations in a single photometric bandpass. Utilizing the damped random walk model of Kelly et al. (2009), we parameterize the ensemble quasar structure function in Sloan Stripe 82 as a function of observed brightness. The ensemble model fit can then be evaluated rigorously for and calibrated with individual light curves with no parameter fitting. This yields a classification in two statistics --- one describing the fit confidence and one describing the probability of a false alarm --- which can be tuned, a priori, to achieve high quasar detection fractions (99% completeness with default cuts), given an acceptable rate of false alarms. We establish the typical rate of false alarms due to known variable stars as <3% (high purity). Applying the classification, we increase the sample of potential quasars relative to those known in Stripe 82 by as much as 29%, and by nearly a factor of two in the redshift range 2.5<z<3, where selection by color is extremeley inefficient. This represents 1875 new quasars in a 290 deg^2 field. The observed rates of both quasars and stars agree well with the model predictions, with >99% of quasars exhibiting the expected variability profile. We discus the utility of the method at high-redshift and in the regime of noisy and sparse data. Our time series selection complements well independent selection based on quasar colors and has strong potential for identifying high redshift quasars for BAO and other cosmology studies in the LSST era.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables; Accepted to A

Downsizing of supermassive black holes from the SDSS quasar survey (II). Extension to z~4

Starting from the quasar sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) for which the CIV line is observed, we use an analysis scheme to derive the z-dependence of the maximum mass of active black holes, which overcomes the problems related to the Malmquist bias. The same procedure is applied to the low redshift sample of SDSS quasars for which Hbeta measurements are available. Combining with the results from the previously studied MgII sample, we find that the maximum mass of the quasar population increases as (1+z)^(1.64+/-0.04) in the redshift range 0.1<z<4, which includes the epoch of maximum quasar activity.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures. To appear in MNRA

Soft clustering analysis of galaxy morphologies: A worked example with SDSS

Context: The huge and still rapidly growing amount of galaxies in modern sky surveys raises the need of an automated and objective classification method. Unsupervised learning algorithms are of particular interest, since they discover classes automatically. Aims: We briefly discuss the pitfalls of oversimplified classification methods and outline an alternative approach called "clustering analysis". Methods: We categorise different classification methods according to their capabilities. Based on this categorisation, we present a probabilistic classification algorithm that automatically detects the optimal classes preferred by the data. We explore the reliability of this algorithm in systematic tests. Using a small sample of bright galaxies from the SDSS, we demonstrate the performance of this algorithm in practice. We are able to disentangle the problems of classification and parametrisation of galaxy morphologies in this case. Results: We give physical arguments that a probabilistic classification scheme is necessary. The algorithm we present produces reasonable morphological classes and object-to-class assignments without any prior assumptions. Conclusions: There are sophisticated automated classification algorithms that meet all necessary requirements, but a lot of work is still needed on the interpretation of the results.Comment: 18 pages, 19 figures, 2 tables, submitted to A

Quasar Selection Based on Photometric Variability

We develop a method for separating quasars from other variable point sources using SDSS Stripe 82 light curve data for ~10,000 variable objects. To statistically describe quasar variability, we use a damped random walk model parametrized by a damping time scale, tau, and an asymptotic amplitude (structure function), SF_inf. With the aid of an SDSS spectroscopically confirmed quasar sample, we demonstrate that variability selection in typical extragalactic fields with low stellar density can deliver complete samples with reasonable purity (or efficiency, E). Compared to a selection method based solely on the slope of the structure function, the inclusion of the tau information boosts E from 60% to 75% while maintaining a highly complete sample (98%) even in the absence of color information. For a completeness of C=90%, E is boosted from 80% to 85%. Conversely, C improves from 90% to 97% while maintaining E=80% when imposing a lower limit on tau. With the aid of color selection, the purity can be further boosted to 96%, with C= 93%. Hence, selection methods based on variability will play an important role in the selection of quasars with data provided by upcoming large sky surveys, such as Pan-STARRS and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). For a typical (simulated) LSST cadence over 10 years and a photometric accuracy of 0.03 mag (achieved at i~22), C is expected to be 88% for a simple sample selection criterion of tau>100 days. In summary, given an adequate survey cadence, photometric variability provides an even better method than color selection for separating quasars from stars.Comment: (v2) 50 pages, accepted to Ap

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Velocity Shifts of Quasar Emission Lines

Quasar emission lines are often shifted from the systemic velocity due to various dynamical and radiative processes in the line-emitting region. The level of these velocity shifts depends both on the line species and on quasar properties. We study velocity shifts for the line peaks of various narrow and broad quasar emission lines relative to systemic using a sample of 849 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping (SDSS-RM) project. The coadded (from 32 epochs) spectra of individual quasars have sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to measure stellar absorption lines to provide reliable systemic velocity estimates, as well as weak narrow emission lines. The sample also covers a large dynamic range in quasar luminosity (~2 dex), allowing us to explore potential luminosity dependence of the velocity shifts. We derive average line peak velocity shifts as a function of quasar luminosity for different lines, and quantify their intrinsic scatter. We further quantify how well the peak velocity can be measured for various lines as a function of continuum SNR, and demonstrate there is no systematic bias in the line peak measurements when the spectral quality is degraded to as low as SNR~3 per SDSS pixel. Based on the observed line shifts, we provide empirical guidelines on redshift estimation from [OII]3728, [OIII]5008, [NeV]3426, MgII, CIII], HeII1640, broad Hbeta, CIV, and SiIV, which are calibrated to provide unbiased systemic redshifts in the mean, but with increasing intrinsic uncertainties of 46, 56, 119, 205, 233, 242, 400, 415, and 477 km/s, in addition to the measurement uncertainties. These more realistic redshift uncertainties are generally much larger than the formal uncertainties reported by the redshift pipelines for spectroscopic quasar surveys, and demonstrate the infeasibility of measuring quasar redshifts to better than ~200 km/s with only broad lines.Comment: matched to the published version; minor changes and conclusions unchange

A modified Delphi study to enhance and gain international consensus on the Physical Activity Messaging Framework (PAMF) and Checklist (PAMC)

Abstract Introduction Physical activity messaging is an important step in the pathway towards improving population physical activity levels, but best practice is not yet understood. A gap in the literature exists for a physical activity messaging framework to help guide creation and evaluation of messages. This study aimed to further develop and improve, and gain international expert consensus on, a standardised Physical Activity Messaging Framework and Checklist. Methods A modified Delphi study consisting of three online survey rounds was conducted. Each survey gathered feedback from an international expert panel using quantitative and qualitative methods. The framework and checklist were amended between each round based on survey results until consensus (defined a priori as 80% agreement) was reached. Results The final expert panel (n = 40, 55% female) came from nine countries and comprised academics (55%), healthcare and other professionals (22.5%) and government officials or policymakers (22.5%). Consensus was reached in survey 3 with 85 and 87.5% agreement on the framework and checklist, respectively. Conclusion This study presents an expert- and evidence-informed framework and checklist for physical activity messaging. If used consistently, the Physical Activity Messaging Framework and Checklist may improve practice by encouraging evidence-based and target audience-focused messages, as well as enhance the research base on physical activity messaging by harmonising key terminologies and improving quality of reporting. Key next steps include further refining the Physical Activity Messaging Framework and Checklist based on their use in real-world settings

X-ray Emission from Optically Selected Radio-Intermediate and Radio-Loud Quasars

We present the results of an investigation into the X-ray properties of radio-intermediate and radio-loud quasars (RIQs and RLQs, respectively). We combine large, modern optical (e.g., SDSS) and radio (e.g., FIRST) surveys with archival X-ray data from Chandra, XMM-Newton, and ROSAT to generate an optically selected sample that includes 188 RIQs and 603 RLQs. This sample is constructed independently of X-ray properties but has a high X-ray detection rate (85%); it provides broad and dense coverage of the l-z plane, including at high redshifts (22% of objects have z=2-5), and it extends to high radio-loudness values (33% of objects have R*=3-5, using logarithmic units). We measure the "excess" X-ray luminosity of RIQs and RLQs relative to radio-quiet quasars (RQQs) as a function of radio loudness and luminosity, and parameterize the X-ray luminosity of RIQs and RLQs both as a function of optical/UV luminosity and also as a joint function of optical/UV and radio luminosity. RIQs are only modestly X-ray bright relative to RQQs; it is only at high values of radio-loudness (R*>3.5) and radio luminosity that RLQs become strongly X-ray bright. We find no evidence for evolution in the X-ray properties of RIQs and RLQs with redshift (implying jet-linked IC/CMB emission does not contribute substantially to the nuclear X-ray continuum). Finally, we consider a model in which the nuclear X-ray emission contains both disk/corona-linked and jet-linked components and demonstrate that the X-ray jet-linked emission is likely beamed but to a lesser degree than applies to the radio jet. This model is used to investigate the increasing dominance of jet-linked X-ray emission at low inclinations.Comment: Accepted to ApJ; 42 pages, 21 figures, 10 tables; version with full-res figures at http://www.astro.lsa.umich.edu/~mbrendan/rlqx.htm

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Ensemble Spectroscopic Variability of Quasar Broad Emission Lines

We explore the variability of quasars in the MgII and Hbeta broad emission lines and UV/optical continuum emission using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project (SDSS-RM). This is the largest spectroscopic study of quasar variability to date: our study includes 29 spectroscopic epochs from SDSS-RM over $6$ months, containing 357 quasars with MgII and 41 quasars with Hbeta . On longer timescales, the study is also supplemented with two-epoch data from SDSS-I/II. The SDSS-I/II data include an additional $2854$ quasars with MgII and 572 quasars with Hbeta. The MgII emission line is significantly variable ($\Delta f/f$ 10% on 100-day timescales), a necessary prerequisite for its use for reverberation mapping studies. The data also confirm that continuum variability increases with timescale and decreases with luminosity, and the continuum light curves are consistent with a damped random-walk model on rest-frame timescales of $\gtrsim 5$ days. We compare the emission-line and continuum variability to investigate the structure of the broad-line region. Broad-line variability shows a shallower increase with timescale compared to the continuum emission, demonstrating that the broad-line transfer function is not a $\delta$-function. Hbeta is more variable than MgII (roughly by a factor of $1.5$), suggesting different excitation mechanisms, optical depths and/or geometrical configuration for each emission line. The ensemble spectroscopic variability measurements enabled by the SDSS-RM project have important consequences for future studies of reverberation mapping and black hole mass estimation of $1<z<2$ quasars.Comment: 20 pages, 25 figures. ApJ accepted: minor revisions following referee repor

Observational Limits on Type 1 AGN Accretion Rate in COSMOS

We present black hole masses and accretion rates for 182 Type 1 AGN in COSMOS. We estimate masses using the scaling relations for the broad Hb, MgII, and CIV emission lines in the redshift ranges 0.16<z<0.88, 1<z<2.4, and 2.7<z<4.9. We estimate the accretion rate using an Eddington ratio L_I/L_Edd estimated from optical and X-ray data. We find that very few Type 1 AGN accrete below L_I/L_Edd ~ 0.01, despite simulations of synthetic spectra which show that the survey is sensitive to such Type 1 AGN. At lower accretion rates the BLR may become obscured, diluted or nonexistent. We find evidence that Type 1 AGN at higher accretion rates have higher optical luminosities, as more of their emission comes from the cool (optical) accretion disk with respect to shorter wavelengths. We measure a larger range in accretion rate than previous works, suggesting that COSMOS is more efficient at finding low accretion rate Type 1 AGN. However the measured range in accretion rate is still comparable to the intrinsic scatter from the scaling relations, suggesting that Type 1 AGN accrete at a narrow range of Eddington ratio, with L_I/L_Edd ~ 0.1.Comment: Accepted for pulication in ApJ. 7 pages, 5 figures, table 1 available on reques