The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic, and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error (FE) is the usual measure of success; however model predictions provide no insights into the potential for improvement. In short, the realized predictability of a specific model is uninformative about whether the system is inherently predictable or whether the chosen model is a poor match for the system and our observations thereof. Ideally, model proficiency would be judged with respect to the systems’ intrinsic predictability, the highest achievable predictability given the degree to which system dynamics are the result of deterministic vs. stochastic processes. Intrinsic predictability may be quantified with permutation entropy (PE), a model‐free, information‐theoretic measure of the complexity of a time series. By means of simulations, we show that a correlation exists between estimated PE and FE and show how stochasticity, process error, and chaotic dynamics affect the relationship. This relationship is verified for a data set of 461 empirical ecological time series. We show how deviations from the expected PE–FE relationship are related to covariates of data quality and the nonlinearity of ecological dynamics. These results demonstrate a theoretically grounded basis for a model‐free evaluation of a system's intrinsic predictability. Identifying the gap between the intrinsic and realized predictability of time series will enable researchers to understand whether forecasting proficiency is limited by the quality and quantity of their data or the ability of the chosen forecasting model to explain the data. Intrinsic predictability also provides a model‐free baseline of forecasting proficiency against which modeling efforts can be evaluated

A comparative analysis of phenylpropanoid metabolism, N utilization, and carbon partitioning in fast- and slow-growing Populus hybrid clones

The biosynthetic costs of phenylpropanoid-derived condensed tannins (CTs) and phenolic glycosides (PGs) are substantial. However, despite reports of negative correlations between leaf phenolic content and growth of Populus, it remains unclear whether or how foliar biosynthesis of CT/PG interferes with tree growth. A comparison was made of carbon partitioning and N content in developmentally staged leaves, stems, and roots of two closely related Populus hybrid genotypes. The genotypes were selected as two of the most phytochemically divergent from a series of seven previously analysed clones that exhibit a range of height growth rates and foliar amino acid, CT, and PG concentrations. The objective was to analyse the relationship between leaf phenolic content and plant growth, using whole-plant carbon partitioning and N distribution data from the two divergent clones. Total N as a percentage of tissue dry mass was comparatively low, and CT and PG accrual comparatively high in leaves of the slow-growing clone. Phenylpropanoid accrual and N content were comparatively high in stems of the slow-growing clone. Carbon partitioning within phenylpropanoid and carbohydrate networks in developing stems differed sharply between clones. The results did not support the idea that foliar production of phenylpropanoid defence chemicals was the primary cause of reduced plant growth in the slow-growing clone. The findings are discussed in the context of metabolic mechanism(s) which may contribute to reduced N delivery from roots to leaves, thereby compromising tree growth and promoting leaf phenolic accrual in the slow-growing clone

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

Beyond Genetic Factors in Familial Amyloidotic Polyneuropathy: Protein Glycation and the Loss of Fibrinogen's Chaperone Activity

Familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy (FAP) is a systemic conformational disease characterized by extracellular amyloid fibril formation from plasma transthyretin (TTR). This is a crippling, fatal disease for which liver transplantation is the only effective therapy. More than 80 TTR point mutations are associated with amyloidotic diseases and the most widely accepted disease model relates TTR tetramer instability with TTR point mutations. However, this model fails to explain two observations. First, native TTR also forms amyloid in systemic senile amyloidosis, a geriatric disease. Second, age at disease onset varies by decades for patients bearing the same mutation and some mutation carrier individuals are asymptomatic throughout their lives. Hence, mutations only accelerate the process and non-genetic factors must play a key role in the molecular mechanisms of disease. One of these factors is protein glycation, previously associated with conformational diseases like Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. The glycation hypothesis in FAP is supported by our previous discovery of methylglyoxal-derived glycation of amyloid fibrils in FAP patients. Here we show that plasma proteins are differentially glycated by methylglyoxal in FAP patients and that fibrinogen is the main glycation target. Moreover, we also found that fibrinogen interacts with TTR in plasma. Fibrinogen has chaperone activity which is compromised upon glycation by methylglyoxal. Hence, we propose that methylglyoxal glycation hampers the chaperone activity of fibrinogen, rendering TTR more prone to aggregation, amyloid formation and ultimately, disease

The time scale of recombination rate evolution in great apes

We present three linkage-disequilibrium (LD)-based recombination maps generated using whole-genome sequence data from 10 Nigerian chimpanzees, 13 bonobos, and 15 western gorillas, collected as part of the Great Ape Genome Project (Prado-Martinez J, et al. 2013. Great ape genetic diversity and population history. Nature 499:471-475). We also identified species-specific recombination hotspots in each group using a modified LDhot framework, which greatly improves statistical power to detect hotspots at varying strengths. We show that fewer hotspots are shared among chimpanzee subspecies than within human populations, further narrowing the time scale of complete hotspot turnover. Further, using species-specific PRDM9 sequences to predict potential binding sites (PBS), we show higher predicted PRDM9 binding in recombination hotspots as compared to matched cold spot regions in multiple great ape species, including at least one chimpanzee subspecies. We found that correlations between broad-scale recombination rates decline more rapidly than nucleotide divergence between species. We also compared the skew of recombination rates at centromeres and telomeres between species and show a skew from chromosome means extending as far as 10-15Mb from chromosome ends. Further, we examined broad-scale recombination rate changes near a translocation in gorillas and found minimal differences as compared to other great ape species perhaps because the coordinates relative to the chromosome ends were unaffected. Finally, on the basis of multiple linear regression analysis, we found that various correlates of recombination rate persist throughout the African great apes including repeats, diversity, and divergence. Our study is the first to analyze within- And between-species genome-wide recombination rate variation in several close relatives

Insights into hominid evolution from the gorilla genome sequence.

Gorillas are humans' closest living relatives after chimpanzees, and are of comparable importance for the study of human origins and evolution. Here we present the assembly and analysis of a genome sequence for the western lowland gorilla, and compare the whole genomes of all extant great ape genera. We propose a synthesis of genetic and fossil evidence consistent with placing the human-chimpanzee and human-chimpanzee-gorilla speciation events at approximately 6 and 10 million years ago. In 30% of the genome, gorilla is closer to human or chimpanzee than the latter are to each other; this is rarer around coding genes, indicating pervasive selection throughout great ape evolution, and has functional consequences in gene expression. A comparison of protein coding genes reveals approximately 500 genes showing accelerated evolution on each of the gorilla, human and chimpanzee lineages, and evidence for parallel acceleration, particularly of genes involved in hearing. We also compare the western and eastern gorilla species, estimating an average sequence divergence time 1.75 million years ago, but with evidence for more recent genetic exchange and a population bottleneck in the eastern species. The use of the genome sequence in these and future analyses will promote a deeper understanding of great ape biology and evolution

Identification and mitigation of narrow spectral artifacts that degrade searches for persistent gravitational waves in the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO

Searches are under way in Advanced LIGO and Virgo data for persistent gravitational waves from continuous sources, e.g. rapidly rotating galactic neutron stars, and stochastic sources, e.g. relic gravitational waves from the Big Bang or superposition of distant astrophysical events such as mergers of black holes or neutron stars. These searches can be degraded by the presence of narrow spectral artifacts (lines) due to instrumental or environmental disturbances. We describe a variety of methods used for finding, identifying and mitigating these artifacts, illustrated with particular examples. Results are provided in the form of lists of line artifacts that can safely be treated as non-astrophysical. Such lists are used to improve the efficiencies and sensitivities of continuous and stochastic gravitational wave searches by allowing vetoes of false outliers and permitting data cleaning

Quantum correlation measurements in interferometric gravitational-wave detectors

Quantum fluctuations in the phase and amplitude quadratures of light set limitations on the sensitivity of modern optical instruments. The sensitivity of the interferometric gravitational-wave detectors, such as the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), is limited by quantum shot noise, quantum radiation pressure noise, and a set of classical noises. We show how the quantum properties of light can be used to distinguish these noises using correlation techniques. Particularly, in the first part of the paper we show estimations of the coating thermal noise and gas phase noise, hidden below the quantum shot noise in the Advanced LIGO sensitivity curve. We also make projections on the observatory sensitivity during the next science runs. In the second part of the paper we discuss the correlation technique that reveals the quantum radiation pressure noise from the background of classical noises and shot noise. We apply this technique to the Advanced LIGO data, collected during the first science run, and experimentally estimate the quantum correlations and quantum radiation pressure noise in the interferometer.National Science Foundation (U.S.)Kavli Foundation (Kavli Foundation