The impact of home energy efficiency interventions and winter fuel payments on winter- and cold-related mortality and morbidity in England: a natural equipment mixed-methods study

Background England, and the UK more generally, has a large burden of winter- and cold-related mortality/morbidity in comparison with nearby countries in continental Europe. Improving the energy efficiency of the housing stock may help to reduce this, as well as being important for climate change and energy security objectives. Objectives To evaluate the impact of home energy efficiency (HEE) interventions on winter- and cold-related mortality/morbidity, including assessing the impact of winter fuel payments (WFPs) and fuel costs. Design A mixed-methods study – an epidemiological time-series analysis, an analysis of data on HEE interventions, the development and application of modelling methods including a multicriteria decision analysis and an in-depth interview study of householders. Setting England, UK. Participants The population of England. In-depth interviews were conducted with 12 households (2–4 participants each) and 41 individuals in three geographical regions. Interventions HEE interventions. Main outcome measures Mortality, morbidity and intervention-related changes to the home indoor environment. Data sources The Homes Energy Efficiency Database, mortality and hospital admissions data and weather (temperature) data. Results There has been a progressive decline in cold-related deaths since the mid-1970s. Since the introduction of WFPs, the gradient of association between winter cold and mortality [2.00%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.74% to 2.28%] per degree Celsius fall in temperature is somewhat weaker (i.e. that the population is less vulnerable to cold) than in earlier years (2.37%, 95% CI 0.22% to 2.53%). There is also evidence that years with above-average fuel costs were associated with higher vulnerability to outdoor cold. HEE measures installed in England in 2002–10 have had a relatively modest impact in improving the indoor environment. The gains in winter temperatures (around +0.09 °C on a day with maximum outdoor temperature of 5 °C) are associated with an estimated annual reduction of ≈280 cold-related deaths in England (an eventual maximum annual impact of 4000 life-years gained), but these impacts may be appreciably smaller than those of changes in indoor air quality. Modelling studies indicate the potential importance of the medium- and longer-term impacts that HEE measures have on health, which are not observable in short-term studies. They also suggest that HEE improvements of similar annualised cost to current WFPs would achieve greater improvements in health while reducing (rather than increasing) carbon dioxide emissions. In-depth interviews suggest four distinct householder framings of HEE measures (as home improvement, home maintenance, subsidised public goods and contributions to sustainability), which do not dovetail with current ‘consumerist’ national policy and may have implications for the uptake of HEE measures. Limitations The quantification of intervention impacts in this national study is reliant on various indirect/model-based assessments. Conclusions Larger-scale changes are required to the housing stock in England if the full potential benefits for improving health and for reaching increasingly important climate change mitigation targets are to be realised. Future work Studies based on data linkage at individual dwelling level to examine health impacts. There is a need for empirical assessment of HEE interventions on indoor air quality. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 6, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. </jats:sec

Kailo: a systemic approach to addressing the social determinants of young people’s mental health and wellbeing at the local level [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

The mental health and wellbeing of children and young people is deteriorating. It is increasingly recognised that mental health is a systemic issue, with a wide range of contributing and interacting factors. However, the vast majority of attention and resources are focused on the identification and treatment of mental health disorders, with relatively scant attention on the social determinants of mental health and wellbeing and investment in preventative approaches. Furthermore, there is little attention on how the social determinants manifest or may be influenced at the local level, impeding the design of contextually nuanced preventative approaches. This paper describes a major research and design initiative called Kailo that aims to support the design and implementation of local and contextually nuanced preventative strategies to improve children's and young people’s mental health and wellbeing. The Kailo Framework involves structured engagement with a wide range of local partners and stakeholders - including young people, community partners, practitioners and local system leaders - to better understand local systemic influences and support programmes of youth-centred and evidence-informed co-design, prototyping and testing. It is hypothesised that integrating different sources of knowledge, experience, insight and evidence will result in better embedded, more sustainable and more impactful strategies that address the social determinants of young people’s mental health and wellbeing at the local level

Clarifying life lost due to cold and heat: a new approach using annual time series.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify whether deaths associated with hot and cold days are among the frail who would have died anyway in the next few weeks or months. DESIGN: Time series regression analysis of annual deaths in relation to annual summaries of cold and heat. SETTING: London, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 3 530 280 deaths from all natural causes among London residents between October 1949 and September 2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in annual risk of death (all natural cause, cardiovascular and respiratory) associated with each additional 1°C of average cold (or heat) below (above) the threshold (18°C) across each year. RESULTS: Cold years were associated with increased deaths from all causes. For each additional 1° of cold across the year, all-cause mortality increased by 2.3% (95% CI 0.7% to 3.8%), after adjustment for influenza and secular trends. The estimated association between hot years and all-cause mortality was very imprecise and thus inconclusive (effect estimate 1.7%, -2.9% to 6.5%). These estimates were broadly robust to changes in the way temperature and trend were modelled. Estimated risk increments using weekly data but otherwise comparable were cold: 2.0% (2.0% to 2.1%) and heat: 3.9% (3.4% to 3.8%). CONCLUSIONS: In this London annual series, we saw an association of cold with mortality which was broadly similar in magnitude to that found in published daily studies and our own weekly analysis, suggesting that most deaths due to cold were among individuals who would not have died in the next 6 months. The estimated association with heat was imprecise, with the CI including magnitudes found in daily studies but also including zero

London annual analysis core code_BMJ Open

STATA core code to be used with London annual analysis dataset. STATA file

London annual analysis dataset_BMJ Open

Dataset containing natural deaths (number of) and temperature (summary statistic) for London, October 1949 to September 2006.Data aggregated for each12 month period (October to September). Mortality data obtained from Registrar's weekly summaries (1949 to 1975) and Office for National Statistics (1976 to 2006). Temperature data derived from baseline data courtesy of the British Atmospheric Data Centre. Excel 2010 file

Data from: Clarifying life lost due to cold and heat: a new approach using annual time series.

Objective: To clarify whether deaths associated with hot and cold days are among the frail who would have died anyway in the next few weeks or months. Design: Time series regression analysis of annual deaths in relation to annual summaries of cold and heat. Setting: London, UK. Participants: 3 530 280 deaths from all natural causes among London residents between October 1949 and September 2006. Main outcome measures: Change in annual risk of death (all natural cause, cardiovascular and respiratory) associated with each additional 1°C of average cold (or heat) below (above) the threshold (18°C) across each year. Results: Cold years were associated with increased deaths from all causes. For each additional 1° of cold across the year, all-cause mortality increased by 2.3% (95% CI 0.7% to 3.8%), after adjustment for influenza and secular trends. The estimated association between hot years and all-cause mortality was very imprecise and thus inconclusive (effect estimate 1.7%, −2.9% to 6.5%). These estimates were broadly robust to changes in the way temperature and trend were modelled. Estimated risk increments using weekly data but otherwise comparable were cold: 2.0% (2.0% to 2.1%) and heat: 3.9% (3.4% to 3.8%). Conclusions: In this London annual series, we saw an association of cold with mortality which was broadly similar in magnitude to that found in published daily studies and our own weekly analysis, suggesting that most deaths due to cold were among individuals who would not have died in the next 6 months. The estimated association with heat was imprecise, with the CI including magnitudes found in daily studies but also including zero

Ealing positive parenting pilot: evaluation

This is an evaluation of a positive parenting interventio