Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.This study was supported by the research projects BIONOVEL (CGL2011-29539/BOS) and MONTES (CSD2008-00040) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science

Caution Is Needed When Using Niche Models to Infer Changes in Species Abundance: The Case of Two Sympatric Raptor Populations

Despite the mounting evidence supporting positive relationships between species abundance and habitat suitability, the capacity of ecological niche models (ENMs) to capture variations in population abundance remains largely unexplored. This study focuses on sympatric populations of hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and Montagu’s harrier (Circus pygargus), surveyed in 1997 and 2017 in an upland moor area in northwestern Spain. The ENMs performed very well for both species (with area under the ROC curve and true skill statistic values of up to 0.9 and 0.75). The presence of both species was mainly correlated with heathlands, although the normalized difference water index derived from Landsat images was the most important for hen harrier, indicating a greater preference of this species for wet heaths and peat bogs. The findings showed that ENM-derived habitat suitability was significantly correlated with the species abundance, thus reinforcing the use of ENMs as a proxy for species abundance. However, the temporal variation in species abundance was not significantly explained by changes in habitat suitability predicted by the ENMs, indicating the need for caution when using these types of models to infer changes in population abundanceThis work received funding from Xunta de Galicia through the grant to structure and consolidate competitive research groups of Galicia (ED431B 2018/36). A.R. was funded by the Xunta de Galicia, Spain (postdoctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0)S

Monitoring protected areas from space: A multi-temporal assessment using raptors as biodiversity surrogates

Monitoring protected areas (PAs) is essential for systematic evaluation of their effectiveness in terms of habitat protection, preservation and representativeness. This study illustrates how the use of species distribution models that combine remote sensing data and information about biodiversity surrogates can contribute to develop a systematic protocol for monitoring PAs. In particular, we assessed the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000) network, for conserving and preserving the representativeness of seven raptor species in a highly-dynamic landscape in northwest Spain between 2001 and 2014. We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the N2000 network by using the total area under protection as a proxy for conservation costs. Overall, the N2000 network was found to poorly represent the habitats of the raptor species. Despite the low representativeness, this network showed a high degree of effectiveness due to increased overall habitat availability for generalist and forest specialist species between 2001 and 2014. Nevertheless, additional protected areas should be established in the near future to increase their representativeness, and thus ensure the protection of open-habitat specialist species and their priority habitats. In addition, proactive conservation measures in natural and semi-natural ecosystems (in particular, montane heathlands) will be essential for long-term protection of Montagu’s harrier (species listed in the Annex I of the Bird Directive), and thus complying with the current European Environmental Legislation. This study sheds light on how the development and application of new protected area indices based on the combined use of freely-available satellite data and species distribution models may contribute substantially to the cost-efficiency of the PA monitoring systems, and to the ‘Fitness Check’ process of EU Nature DirectivesThis work was partly funded by the EU BON (308454; FP7-ENV-2012, European Commission), FORESTCAST (CGL2014-59742) and NEWFORESTS (EU Seventh Framework Programme, PIRSES-GA-2013-612645) projects. A.R. was funded by the Xunta de Galicia (post-doctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0). Fieldwork was partially supported by the Department of Environment of Galician Government through the PGIDTO1MAM20001PR (Xunta de Galicia) projectS

Climatic variables and ecological modelling data for birds, amphibians and reptiles in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain)

Background: Climate change has been widely accepted as one of the major threats for global biodiversity and understanding its potential effects on species distribution is crucial to optimise conservation planning in future scenarios under global change. Integrating detailed climatic data across spatial and temporal scales into species distribution modelling can help to predict potential changes in biodiversity. Consequently, this type of data can be useful for developing efficient biodiversity management and conservation planning. The provision of such data becomes even more important in highly biodiverse regions, currently suffering from climatic and landscape changes. The Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (BRMI; Portugal-Spain) is one of the most relevant reserves for wildlife in Europe. This highly diverse region is of great ecological and socio-economical interest, suffering from synergistic processes of rural land abandonment and climatic instabilities that currently threaten local biodiversity. Aiming to optimise conservation planning in the Reserve, we provide a complete dataset of historical and future climate models (1 x 1 km) for the BRMI, used to build a series of distribution models for 207 vertebrate species. These models are projected for 2050 under two climate change scenarios. The climatic suitability of 52% and 57% of the species are predicted to decrease under the intermediate and extreme climatic scenarios, respectively. These models constitute framework data for improving local conservation planning in the Reserve, which should be further supported by implementing climate and land-use change factors to increase the accuracy of future predictions of species distributions in the study areaThis research was supported by Portuguese national funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., under the FirESmart project (PCIF/MOG/0083/2017) and by project INMODES (CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. AR was supported by the Xunta de Galicia (ED481B2016/084-0) and the IACOBUS programme (INTERREG V-A España–Portugal, POCTEP 2014-2020). This work was also supported by National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020S

Global change and the uncertain future of biodiversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems : insights from a strategic foresight process /

La conservación requiere una previsión estratégica que permita abordar con eficacia los retos actuales que plantea el cambio global. La cuenca Mediterránea ha sido identificada como área prioritaria para la conservación, particularmente vulnerable al efecto combinado del cambio climático, el cambio de los usos del suelo y el régimen de perturbaciones por incendios forestales. Los efectos de la interacción de estos factores de cambio y las grandes incertidumbres asociadas a su predicción, también pueden ser vistas como una oportunidad para intervenir a través de mejores políticas de conservación. Los ejercicios de previsión estratégica pueden ofrecer a los responsables de la toma de decisiones herramientas para pensar de forma creativa y proactiva sobre el futuro y tomar decisiones que creen un futuro más deseable. En esta tesis ilustramos el papel de las actividades de 'horizon scanning', planificación y análisis de escenarios basados en simulación, en los que se sustenta el enfoque de previsión estratégica, y en la que usamos escenarios conceptuales como líneas argumentales y simulaciones como estimaciones numéricas de los futuros cambios ambientales. En particular, este ejercicio de previsión estratégica contribuye a la apertura de dos opciones de políticas de manejo del fuego prometedoras ('dejar quemar los incendios no planificados' y 'la extracción de biomasa forestal para bioenergía') alternativas al paradigma actual de 'apagar todos los incendios'. Ambas políticas de manejo del fuego podrían combinarse estratégicamente con el fin de alcanzar los objetivos de reducción de combustible requeridas para mitigar el creciente impacto de los grandes incendios causados por el cambio global. La planificación de la conservación puede ser mejorada considerablemente mediante la aplicación de estas estrategias de manejo del fuego. Dos principales oportunidades de conservación emergentes han sido identificados y deben ser priorizadas a fin de proteger de forma efectiva las especies de aves de interés comunitario en un futuro próximo: 1) la creación de etapas tempranas de sucesión de la vegetación para especies de hábitat abierto a través de políticas de 'dejar quemar incendios no planificados'; y 2) el aumento de la capacidad de resiliencia frente al cambio climático de los hábitats forestales claves para las especies más forestales. En esta tesis se hace hincapié en la necesidad de una perspectiva de conservación integral en donde las políticas agrícolas, forestales y de manejo de fuego deben ser consideradas explícitamente para preservar eficazmente hábitats clave para las aves más amenazadas en sistemas altamente dinámicos propensos al fuego. Nuestros resultados también arrojan luz sobre la importancia de considerar la dinámica del paisaje y las sinergias entre las diferentes fuerzas motrices a la hora de evaluar a largo plazo la eficacia de la gestión del fuego en la reducción del riesgo de incendios y la protección de la biodiversidad en los ecosistemas de tipo mediterráneoConservation needs strategic foresight leading to effectively address the ongoing challenges posed by global change. Mediterranean Basin has been identified as priority area for conservation, particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change, land-use change and fire disturbance regime. The interacting effects of these drivers, and the large uncertainties associated to their forecasting, might also bring conservation opportunities to intervene through better policies. Strategic foresight exercises may offer decision-makers with tools to creatively think about the future and make decisions that create a more desirable future. In this thesis, we illustrate the role for horizon scanning, scenario planning and simulation-based scenario analysis in underpinning the strategic foresight approach - using storylines as conceptual scenarios, and simulations as numerical estimates of future environmental changes. In particular, this strategic foresight exercise contributes to opening up two promising fire management policy options ('letting unplanned fires burn' and 'forest biomass extraction for bioenergy uses') alternatives to the current fire suppression paradigm of "stopping all fires''. Both fire management policies could be strategically combined in order to achieve the fuel reduction objectives required to mitigate the increasing impact of large fires caused by global change. Conservation planning may be considerably improved through the implementation of such fire management strategies. Two main emerging conservation opportunities have been identified and should be prioritized in order to effectively protect community-interest bird species in the near future: 1) promoting early-succession stages of vegetation for open-habitat dwelling species through 'letting unplanned fires burn' policies; and 2) increasing the resilience of key forest habitats to climate change for forest-dwelling species. This thesis emphasizes the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be explicitly considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly-dynamic systems. Our findings also shed light about the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of fire management at reducing fire risk and safeguarding biodiversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems

Model-Assisted Bird Monitoring Based on Remotely Sensed Ecosystem Functioning and Atlas Data

Urgent action needs to be taken to halt global biodiversity crisis. To be effective in the implementation of such action, managers and policy-makers need updated information on the status and trends of biodiversity. Here, we test the ability of remotely sensed ecosystem functioning attributes (EFAs) to predict the distribution of 73 bird species with different life-history traits. We run ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) trained with bird atlas data and 12 EFAs describing different dimensions of carbon cycle and surface energy balance. Our ensemble SDMs—exclusively based on EFAs—hold a high predictive capacity across 71 target species (up to 0.94 and 0.79 of Area Under the ROC curve and true skill statistic (TSS)). Our results showed the life-history traits did not significantly affect SDM performance. Overall, minimum Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and maximum Albedo values (descriptors of primary productivity and energy balance) were the most important predictors across our bird community. Our approach leverages the existing atlas data and provides an alternative method to monitor inter-annual bird habitat dynamics from space in the absence of long-term biodiversity monitoring schemes. This study illustrates the great potential that satellite remote sensing can contribute to the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and to the Essential Biodiversity Variables framework (EBV class “Species distribution”)Fieldwork campaigns were carried out within the project “Estudios sobre a biodiversidade do Macizo Central Galego. Lugar de Importancia Comunitaria” (PGIDT99PXI20002B) and “Caracterización de los vertebrados del LIC Macizo Central e Bidueiral de Montederramo”, code: 2008-CE227”, funded by SAYFOR S.L. This work also received funding from Xunta de Galicia through the grant to structure and consolidate competitive research groups of Galicia (ED431B 2018/36). A.R. was funded by the Xunta de Galicia, Spain (post-doctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0). S.A.-C. was financially supported by PORBIOTA—E-Infraestrutura Portuguesa de Informação e Investigação em Biodiversidade (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-022127)S

Climate- and fire-smart landscape scenarios call for redesigning protection regimes to achieve multiple management goals

Integrated management of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) in heterogeneous landscapes requires considering the potential trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The UNESCO's Biosphere Reserve zoning scheme is a suitable context to address these trade-offs by considering multiple management zones that aim to minimise conflicts between management objectives. Moreover, in Mediterranean ecosystems, management and planning also needs to consider drivers of landscape dynamics such as wildfires and traditional farming and forestry practices that have historically shaped landscapes and the biodiversity they host. In this study, we applied a conservation planning approach to prioritise the allocation of management zones under future landscape and climate scenarios. We tested different landscape management scenarios reflecting the outcomes of climate-smart and fire-smart policies. We projected the expected landscape dynamics and associated changes on the distribution of 207 vertebrate species, 4 ES and fire hazard under each scenario. We used Marxan with Zones to allocate three management zones, replicating the Biosphere Reserves zoning scheme (“Core area”, “Buffer zone” and “Transition area”) to address the various management objectives within the Biosphere Reserve. Our results show that to promote ES supply and biodiversity conservation, while also minimising fire hazard, the reserve will need to: i) Redefine its zoning, especially regarding Core Areas, which need a considerable expansion to help mitigate changes in biodiversity and accommodate ES supply under expected changes in climate and species distribution. ii) Revisit current management policies that will result in encroached landscapes prone to high intensity, uncontrollable wildfires with the potential to heavily damage ecosystems and compromise the supply of ES. Our results support that both climate- and fire-smart policies in the Meseta Ibérica can help develop multifunctional landscapes that help mitigate and adapt to climate change and ensure the best possible maintenance of biodiversity and ES supply under uncertain future climate conditions.This study was supported by national funds - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the “FirESmart” project (PCIF/MOG/ 0083/2017), and the project UIDB/04033/2020. CCS is supported by the “Financiamento Programatico” UIDP/04050/2020 funded by national funds through the FCT I.P. VH was funded by the Junta de Andalucía through an Emergia contract (EMERGIA20_00135). AR is supported by ‘Juan de la Cierva’ fellowship program funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (IJC2019-041033-I). AS ˆ received support from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through Ph.D. Grant SFRH/BD/132838/2017, funded by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education, and by the European Social Fund - Operational Program Human Capital within the 2014–2020 EU Strategic Framework. We thank ZASNET European Grouping of Territorial Cooperation for providing us with data on the zonation of the RBTMI

Global change and the uncertain future of biodiversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems: insights from a strategic foresight process

La conservación requiere una previsión estratégica que permita abordar con eficacia los retos actuales que plantea el cambio global. La cuenca Mediterránea ha sido identificada como área prioritaria para la conservación, particularmente vulnerable al efecto combinado del cambio climático, el cambio de los usos del suelo y el régimen de perturbaciones por incendios forestales. Los efectos de la interacción de estos factores de cambio y las grandes incertidumbres asociadas a su predicción, también pueden ser vistas como una oportunidad para intervenir a través de mejores políticas de conservación. Los ejercicios de previsión estratégica pueden ofrecer a los responsables de la toma de decisiones herramientas para pensar de forma creativa y proactiva sobre el futuro y tomar decisiones que creen un futuro más deseable. En esta tesis ilustramos el papel de las actividades de ‘horizon scanning’, planificación y análisis de escenarios basados en simulación, en los que se sustenta el enfoque de previsión estratégica, y en la que usamos escenarios conceptuales como líneas argumentales y simulaciones como estimaciones numéricas de los futuros cambios ambientales. En particular, este ejercicio de previsión estratégica contribuye a la apertura de dos opciones de políticas de manejo del fuego prometedoras ('dejar quemar los incendios no planificados' y 'la extracción de biomasa forestal para bioenergía') alternativas al paradigma actual de 'apagar todos los incendios'. Ambas políticas de manejo del fuego podrían combinarse estratégicamente con el fin de alcanzar los objetivos de reducción de combustible requeridas para mitigar el creciente impacto de los grandes incendios causados por el cambio global. La planificación de la conservación puede ser mejorada considerablemente mediante la aplicación de estas estrategias de manejo del fuego. Dos principales oportunidades de conservación emergentes han sido identificados y deben ser priorizadas a fin de proteger de forma efectiva las especies de aves de interés comunitario en un futuro próximo: 1) la creación de etapas tempranas de sucesión de la vegetación para especies de hábitat abierto a través de políticas de 'dejar quemar incendios no planificados'; y 2) el aumento de la capacidad de resiliencia frente al cambio climático de los hábitats forestales claves para las especies más forestales. En esta tesis se hace hincapié en la necesidad de una perspectiva de conservación integral en donde las políticas agrícolas, forestales y de manejo de fuego deben ser consideradas explícitamente para preservar eficazmente hábitats clave para las aves más amenazadas en sistemas altamente dinámicos propensos al fuego. Nuestros resultados también arrojan luz sobre la importancia de considerar la dinámica del paisaje y las sinergias entre las diferentes fuerzas motrices a la hora de evaluar a largo plazo la eficacia de la gestión del fuego en la reducción del riesgo de incendios y la protección de la biodiversidad en los ecosistemas de tipo mediterráneo.Conservation needs strategic foresight leading to effectively address the ongoing challenges posed by global change. Mediterranean Basin has been identified as priority area for conservation, particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change, land-use change and fire disturbance regime. The interacting effects of these drivers, and the large uncertainties associated to their forecasting, might also bring conservation opportunities to intervene through better policies. Strategic foresight exercises may offer decision-makers with tools to creatively think about the future and make decisions that create a more desirable future. In this thesis, we illustrate the role for horizon scanning, scenario planning and simulation-based scenario analysis in underpinning the strategic foresight approach — using storylines as conceptual scenarios, and simulations as numerical estimates of future environmental changes. In particular, this strategic foresight exercise contributes to opening up two promising fire management policy options (‘letting unplanned fires burn’ and ‘forest biomass extraction for bioenergy uses’) alternatives to the current fire suppression paradigm of “stopping all fires’’. Both fire management policies could be strategically combined in order to achieve the fuel reduction objectives required to mitigate the increasing impact of large fires caused by global change. Conservation planning may be considerably improved through the implementation of such fire management strategies. Two main emerging conservation opportunities have been identified and should be prioritized in order to effectively protect community-interest bird species in the near future: 1) promoting early-succession stages of vegetation for open-habitat dwelling species through ‘letting unplanned fires burn’ policies; and 2) increasing the resilience of key forest habitats to climate change for forest-dwelling species. This thesis emphasizes the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be explicitly considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly-dynamic systems. Our findings also shed light about the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of fire management at reducing fire risk and safeguarding biodiversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems

Cartography of area burned in Galicia in the 21st century: presentation of the product and webmapping application

O obxectivo deste traballo é obter unha cartografía actualizada das áreas afectadas por incendios forestais en Galicia (período 2001-2017), así como facilitar a súa dispoñibilidade a través dunha aplicación web mapping. A información de base é o produto de áreas queimadas do sensor MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), dos satélites Terra e Aqua da NASA. A partir desta información xeráronse os seguintes subprodutos: 1) área queimada anual, 2) total queimado para o período 2001-2017, 3) recorrencia de incendios e 4) tempo transcorrido dende o último incendio; todos eles dispoñibles a 500 m de resolución, en formato ráster e vectorial. A área queimada anual foi comparada coas estatísticas oficiais de incendios dispoñibles a nivel provincial. Os resultados amosan unha alta correlación entre a área queimada estimada a partir do produto MODIS e a obtida a partir das estatísticas oficiais (coef. de Pearson = 0.92). Porén, o produto MODIS tende a sobreestimar a área oficialmente queimada (media = 2.76%), aínda que isto depende fortemente do ano e da provincia (desv. estándar = ±103%). A pesar destas limitacións, esta cartografía constitúe unha fonte moi valiosa de información espacial con múltiples aplicacións no eido da conservación da biodiversidade, da xestión forestal e do territorio.The main objective of this work is to produce an updated cartography of areas affected by wildfires in Galicia(between 2001 and 2017), as well as to ensure potential users free accessibility to this spatial dataset through a webmapping application. The baseline information is the Burned Area product derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, on-board NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. From this information, we generated the following secondary products: 1) annual burned area, 2) total area burned between 2001 and 2017, 3) fire recurrence and 4) time since last fire; at 500-m resolution, in raster and vectorial format. The annual burned area was compared with official fire statistics at the province level from Spanish Government. The results showed a high statistical correlation between the burned area estimated from MODIS product and official fire statistics (Pearson coef. = 0.92). However, MODIS product tends to overestimate the official burned area (mean = 2.76%), but in more or less extent depending on the year and province (SD = ±103%). Despite these limitations, these products constitute a key source of freely-available spatial information on wildfires in Galicia, with a wide range of potential applications for biodiversity conservation, forest management and land planning

Global change and the uncertain future of biodiversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems: insights from a strategic foresight process

La conservación requiere una previsión estratégica que permita abordar con eficacia los retos actuales que plantea el cambio global. La cuenca Mediterránea ha sido identificada como área prioritaria para la conservación, particularmente vulnerable al efecto combinado del cambio climático, el cambio de los usos del suelo y el régimen de perturbaciones por incendios forestales. Los efectos de la interacción de estos factores de cambio y las grandes incertidumbres asociadas a su predicción, también pueden ser vistas como una oportunidad para intervenir a través de mejores políticas de conservación. Los ejercicios de previsión estratégica pueden ofrecer a los responsables de la toma de decisiones herramientas para pensar de forma creativa y proactiva sobre el futuro y tomar decisiones que creen un futuro más deseable. En esta tesis ilustramos el papel de las actividades de ‘horizon scanning’, planificación y análisis de escenarios basados en simulación, en los que se sustenta el enfoque de previsión estratégica, y en la que usamos escenarios conceptuales como líneas argumentales y simulaciones como estimaciones numéricas de los futuros cambios ambientales. En particular, este ejercicio de previsión estratégica contribuye a la apertura de dos opciones de políticas de manejo del fuego prometedoras ('dejar quemar los incendios no planificados' y 'la extracción de biomasa forestal para bioenergía') alternativas al paradigma actual de 'apagar todos los incendios'. Ambas políticas de manejo del fuego podrían combinarse estratégicamente con el fin de alcanzar los objetivos de reducción de combustible requeridas para mitigar el creciente impacto de los grandes incendios causados por el cambio global. La planificación de la conservación puede ser mejorada considerablemente mediante la aplicación de estas estrategias de manejo del fuego. Dos principales oportunidades de conservación emergentes han sido identificados y deben ser priorizadas a fin de proteger de forma efectiva las especies de aves de interés comunitario en un futuro próximo: 1) la creación de etapas tempranas de sucesión de la vegetación para especies de hábitat abierto a través de políticas de 'dejar quemar incendios no planificados'; y 2) el aumento de la capacidad de resiliencia frente al cambio climático de los hábitats forestales claves para las especies más forestales. En esta tesis se hace hincapié en la necesidad de una perspectiva de conservación integral en donde las políticas agrícolas, forestales y de manejo de fuego deben ser consideradas explícitamente para preservar eficazmente hábitats clave para las aves más amenazadas en sistemas altamente dinámicos propensos al fuego. Nuestros resultados también arrojan luz sobre la importancia de considerar la dinámica del paisaje y las sinergias entre las diferentes fuerzas motrices a la hora de evaluar a largo plazo la eficacia de la gestión del fuego en la reducción del riesgo de incendios y la protección de la biodiversidad en los ecosistemas de tipo mediterráneo.Conservation needs strategic foresight leading to effectively address the ongoing challenges posed by global change. Mediterranean Basin has been identified as priority area for conservation, particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change, land-use change and fire disturbance regime. The interacting effects of these drivers, and the large uncertainties associated to their forecasting, might also bring conservation opportunities to intervene through better policies. Strategic foresight exercises may offer decision-makers with tools to creatively think about the future and make decisions that create a more desirable future. In this thesis, we illustrate the role for horizon scanning, scenario planning and simulation-based scenario analysis in underpinning the strategic foresight approach — using storylines as conceptual scenarios, and simulations as numerical estimates of future environmental changes. In particular, this strategic foresight exercise contributes to opening up two promising fire management policy options (‘letting unplanned fires burn’ and ‘forest biomass extraction for bioenergy uses’) alternatives to the current fire suppression paradigm of “stopping all fires’’. Both fire management policies could be strategically combined in order to achieve the fuel reduction objectives required to mitigate the increasing impact of large fires caused by global change. Conservation planning may be considerably improved through the implementation of such fire management strategies. Two main emerging conservation opportunities have been identified and should be prioritized in order to effectively protect community-interest bird species in the near future: 1) promoting early-succession stages of vegetation for open-habitat dwelling species through ‘letting unplanned fires burn’ policies; and 2) increasing the resilience of key forest habitats to climate change for forest-dwelling species. This thesis emphasizes the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be explicitly considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly-dynamic systems. Our findings also shed light about the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of fire management at reducing fire risk and safeguarding biodiversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems