ESTIMATING PRICE VARIABILITY IN AGRICULTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION MAKERS

Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998-2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986-96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.POLYSYS model, Price variability, Stochastic simulation, Crop Production/Industries,

Thermal Properties of Lunar Regolith Simulants

Various high temperature chemical processes have been developed to extract oxygen and metals from lunar regolith. These processes are tested using terrestrial analogues of the regolith. But all practical terrestrial analogs contain H2O and/or OH-, the presence of which has substantial impact on important system behaviors. We have undertaken studies of lunar regolith simulants to determine the limits of the simulants to validate key components for human survivability during sustained presence on the Moon. Differential Thermal Analysis (DTA) yields information on phase transitions and melting temperatures. Thermo-Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) with Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) analysis provides information on evolved gas species and their evolution temperature profiles. The DTA and TGA studies included JSC-1A fine (Johnson Space Center Mare Type 1A simulant), NU-LHT-2M (National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-- United States Geological Survey (USGS)--Lunar Highlands Type 2M simulant) and its proposed feedstocks: anorthosite; dunite; high quality (HQ) glass and the norite from which HQ glass is produced. As an example, the DTA and TGA profiles for anorthosite follow. The DTA indicates exothermic transitions at 355 and 490 C and endothermic transitions at 970 and 1235 C. Below the 355 C transition, water is lost accounting for approximately 0.1 percent mass loss. Just above 490 C a second type of water is lost, presumably bound in lattices of secondary minerals along with other volatile oxides. Limited TGA-FTIR data is available at the time of this writing. For JSC-1A fine, the TGA-FTIR indicates at least two kinds of water are evolved in the 100 to 500 and the 700 to 900 C ranges. Evolution of carbon dioxide types occurs in the 250 to 545, 545 to 705, and 705 to 985 C ranges. Geologically, the results are consistent with the evolution of "water" in its several forms, CO2 from break down of secondary carbonates and magmatic, dissolved gas and glass recrystallizatio

Functional network changes and cognitive control in schizophrenia

Cognitive control is a cognitive and neural mechanism that contributes to managing the complex demands of day-to-day life. Studies have suggested that functional impairments in cognitive control associated brain circuitry contribute to a broad range of higher cognitive deficits in schizophrenia. To examine this issue, we assessed functional connectivity networks in healthy adults and individuals with schizophrenia performing tasks from two distinct cognitive domains that varied in demands for cognitive control, the RiSE episodic memory task and DPX goal maintenance task. We characterized general and cognitive control-specific effects of schizophrenia on functional connectivity within an expanded frontal parietal network (FPN) and quantified network topology properties using graph analysis. Using the network based statistic (NBS), we observed greater network functional connectivity in cognitive control demanding conditions during both tasks in both groups in the FPN, and demonstrated cognitive control FPN specificity against a task independent auditory network. NBS analyses also revealed widespread connectivity deficits in schizophrenia patients across all tasks. Furthermore, quantitative changes in network topology associated with diagnostic status and task demand were observed. The present findings, in an analysis that was limited to correct trials only, ensuring that subjects are on task, provide critical insights into network connections crucial for cognitive control and the manner in which brain networks reorganize to support such control. Impairments in this mechanism are present in schizophrenia and these results highlight how cognitive control deficits contribute to the pathophysiology of this illness

Gemini Deep Deep Survey VI: Massive Hdelta-strong galaxies at z=1

We show that there has been a dramatic decline in the abundance of massive galaxies with strong Hdelta stellar absorption lines from z=1.2 to the present. These ``Hdelta-strong'', or HDS, galaxies have undergone a recent and rapid break in their star-formation activity. Combining data from the Gemini Deep Deep and the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys to make mass-matched samples (M*>=10^10.2 Msun), with 25 and 50,255 galaxies, respectively), we find that the fraction of galaxies in an HDS phase has decreased from about 50% at z=1.2 to a few percent today. This decrease in fraction is due to an actual decrease in the number density of massive HDS systems by a factor of 2-4, coupled with an increase in the number density of massive galaxies by about 30 percent. We show that this result depends only weakly on the threshold chosen for the Hdelta equivalent width to define HDS systems (if greater than 4 A) and corresponds to a (1+z)^{2.5\pm 0.7} evolution. Spectral synthesis studies of the high-redshift population using the PEGASE code, treating Hdelta_A, EW[OII], Dn4000, and rest-frame colors, favor models in which the Balmer absorption features in massive Hdelta-strong systems are the echoes of intense episodes of star-formation that faded about 1 Gyr prior to the epoch of observation. The z=1.4-2 epoch appears to correspond to a time at which massive galaxies are in transition from a mode of sustained star formation to a relatively quiescent mode with weak and rare star-formation episodes. We argue that the most likely local descendants of the distant massive HDS galaxies are passively evolving massive galaxies in the field and small groups.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, uses emulateapj.sty; updated to match the version accepted by ApJ. One figure added, conclusions unchange

Association Between Residential Greenness and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Background Exposure to green vegetation has been linked to positive health, but the pathophysiological processes affected by exposure to vegetation remain unclear. To study the relationship between greenness and cardiovascular disease, we examined the association between residential greenness and biomarkers of cardiovascular injury and disease risk in susceptible individuals. Methods and Results In this cross-sectional study of 408 individuals recruited from a preventive cardiology clinic, we measured biomarkers of cardiovascular injury and risk in participant blood and urine. We estimated greenness from satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index ( NDVI ) in zones with radii of 250 m and 1 km surrounding the participants' residences. We used generalized estimating equations to examine associations between greenness and cardiovascular disease biomarkers. We adjusted for residential clustering, demographic, clinical, and environmental variables. In fully adjusted models, contemporaneous NDVI within 250 m of participant residence was inversely associated with urinary levels of epinephrine (-6.9%; 95% confidence interval, -11.5, -2.0/0.1 NDVI ) and F2-isoprostane (-9.0%; 95% confidence interval, -15.1, -2.5/0.1 NDVI ). We found stronger associations between NDVI and urinary epinephrine in women, those not on β-blockers, and those who had not previously experienced a myocardial infarction. Of the 15 subtypes of circulating angiogenic cells examined, 11 were inversely associated (8.0-15.6% decrease/0.1 NDVI ), whereas 2 were positively associated (37.6-45.8% increase/0.1 NDVI ) with contemporaneous NDVI . Conclusions Independent of age, sex, race, smoking status, neighborhood deprivation, statin use, and roadway exposure, residential greenness is associated with lower levels of sympathetic activation, reduced oxidative stress, and higher angiogenic capacity

Incentive-based approaches to sustainable fisheries (now replaced by EEN0508)

Using examples from more than a dozen fisheries, we highlight the failures of ‘command control’ management and show that approaches that empower fishers with the incentives and the mandate to be co-custodians of the marine environment can promote sustainability. Evidence is provided that where harvesters share well-defined management responsibilities over fish, and experience both the pain of overexploitation and the gains from conservation, they are much more likely to protect fish stocks and habitat. The key insight is that to maintain marine ecosystems for present and future generations, fishing incentives must be compatible with long-term goals of sustainability.incentives, sustainability, rights, fisheries management

Incentive-based approaches to sustainable fisheries

The failures of traditional target-species management have led many to propose an ecosystem approach to fisheries to promote sustainability. The ecosystem approach is necessary, especially to account for fishery-ecosystem interactions, but by itself is not sufficient to address two important factors contributing to unsustainable fisheries — inappropriate incentives bearing on fishers, and the ineffective governance that frequently exists in commercial, developed fisheries managed primarily by total harvest limits and input-controls. We contend that much greater emphasis must be placed on fisher motivation when managing fisheries. Using evidence from more than a dozen ‘natural experiments’ in commercial fisheries, we argue that incentive-based approaches that better specify community, individual harvest, or territorial rights and also price ecosystem services — coupled with public research, monitoring and effective oversight — promote sustainable fisheries.incentives, sustainability, rights, fisheries management

Alterations of immune response of non-small lung cancer with azacytidine

Innovative therapies are needed for advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). We have undertaken a genomics based, hypothesis driving, approach to query an emerging potential that epigenetic therapy may sensitize to immune checkpoint therapy targeting PD-L1/PD-1 interaction. NSCLC cell lines were treated with the DNA hypomethylating agent azacytidine (AZA - Vidaza) and genes and pathways altered were mapped by genome-wide expression and DNA methylation analyses. AZA-induced pathways were analyzed in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project by mapping the derived gene signatures in hundreds of lung adeno (LUAD) and squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) samples. AZA up-regulates genes and pathways related to both innate and adaptive immunity and genes related to immune evasion in a several NSCLC lines. DNA hypermethylation and low expression of IRF7, an interferon transcription factor, tracks with this signature particularly in LUSC. In concert with these events, AZA up-regulates PD-L1 transcripts and protein, a key ligand-mediator of immune tolerance. Analysis of TCGA samples demonstrates that a significant proportion of primary NSCLC have low expression of AZA-induced immune genes, including PD-L1. We hypothesize that epigenetic therapy combined with blockade of immune checkpoints - in particular the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway - may augment response of NSCLC by shifting the balance between immune activation and immune inhibition, particularly in a subset of NSCLC with low expression of these pathways. Our studies define a biomarker strategy for response in a recently initiated trial to examine the potential of epigenetic therapy to sensitize patients with NSCLC to PD-1 immune checkpoint blockade

Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years

We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed to two fundamental mechanisms that have not changed for many centuries: an innate preference for trend following and the collective tendency to exploit as much as possible detectable price arbitrage, which leads to destabilizing feedback loops.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

Multi-Messenger Gravitational Wave Searches with Pulsar Timing Arrays: Application to 3C66B Using the NANOGrav 11-year Data Set

When galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes in their centers may form binaries and, during the process of merger, emit low-frequency gravitational radiation in the process. In this paper we consider the galaxy 3C66B, which was used as the target of the first multi-messenger search for gravitational waves. Due to the observed periodicities present in the photometric and astrometric data of the source of the source, it has been theorized to contain a supermassive black hole binary. Its apparent 1.05-year orbital period would place the gravitational wave emission directly in the pulsar timing band. Since the first pulsar timing array study of 3C66B, revised models of the source have been published, and timing array sensitivities and techniques have improved dramatically. With these advances, we further constrain the chirp mass of the potential supermassive black hole binary in 3C66B to less than $(1.65\pm0.02) \times 10^9~{M_\odot}$ using data from the NANOGrav 11-year data set. This upper limit provides a factor of 1.6 improvement over previous limits, and a factor of 4.3 over the first search done. Nevertheless, the most recent orbital model for the source is still consistent with our limit from pulsar timing array data. In addition, we are able to quantify the improvement made by the inclusion of source properties gleaned from electromagnetic data to `blind' pulsar timing array searches. With these methods, it is apparent that it is not necessary to obtain exact a priori knowledge of the period of a binary to gain meaningful astrophysical inferences.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. Accepted by Ap