Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems: A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation

It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools’ ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation to various factors such as school quality and parents’ income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated

Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems: A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation

It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools’ ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation to various factors such as school quality and parents’ income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated

Frost maintains forests and grasslands as alternate states in a montane tropical forest–grassland mosaic; but alien tree invasion and warming can disrupt this balance

1. Forest–grassland mosaics, with abrupt boundaries between the two vegetation types, occur across the globe. Fire and herbivory are widely considered primary drivers that maintain these mosaics by limiting tree establishment in grasslands, while edaphic factors and frosts are generally considered to be secondary factors that reinforce these effects. However, the relative importance of these drivers likely varies across systems. In particular, although frost is known to occur in many montane tropical mosaics, experimental evidence for its role as a driving factor is limited. 2. We used replicated in situ transplant and warming experiments to examine the role of microclimate (frost and freezing temperatures) and soil in influencing germination and seedling survival of both native forest trees and alien invasive Acacia trees in grasslands of a tropical montane forest–grassland mosaic in the Western Ghats of southern India. 3. Seed germination of both native and alien tree species was higher in grasslands regardless of soil type, indicating that germination was not the limiting stage to tree establishment. However, irrespective of soil type, native seedlings in grasslands incurred high mortality following winter frosts and freezing temperatures relative to native seedlings in adjoining forests where freezing temperatures did not occur. Seedling survival through the tropical winter was thus a primary limitation to native tree establishment in grasslands. In contrast, alien Acacia seedlings in grasslands incurred much lower levels of winter mortality. Experimental night‐time warming in grasslands significantly enhanced over‐winter survival of all tree seedlings, but increases were much greater for alien Acacia than for native tree seedlings. 4. Synthesis. Our results provide evidence for a primary role for frost and freezing temperatures in limiting tree establishment in grasslands of this tropical montane forest–grassland mosaic. Future increases in temperature are likely to release trees from this limitation and favour tree expansion into grasslands, with rates of expansion of non‐native Acacia likely to be much greater than that of native trees. We suggest that studies of frost limitation to plant establishment are needed across a range of tropical ecosystems to re‐evaluate the general importance of frost as a driver of vegetation transitions in the tropics

An Infinite Dimensional Symmetry Algebra in String Theory

Symmetry transformations of the space-time fields of string theory are generated by certain similarity transformations of the stress-tensor of the associated conformal field theories. This observation is complicated by the fact that, as we explain, many of the operators we habitually use in string theory (such as vertices and currents) have ill-defined commutators. However, we identify an infinite-dimensional subalgebra whose commutators are not singular, and explicitly calculate its structure constants. This constitutes a subalgebra of the gauge symmetry of string theory, although it may act on auxiliary as well as propagating fields. We term this object a {\it weighted tensor algebra}, and, while it appears to be a distant cousin of the $W$-algebras, it has not, to our knowledge, appeared in the literature before.Comment: 14 pages, Plain TeX, report RU93-8, CTP-TAMU-2/94, CERN-TH.7022/9

Age-Related Attenuation of Dominant Hand Superiority

The decline of motor performance of the human hand-arm system with age is well-documented. While dominant hand performance is superior to that of the non-dominant hand in young individuals, little is known of possible age-related changes in hand dominance. We investigated age-related alterations of hand dominance in 20 to 90 year old subjects. All subjects were unambiguously right-handed according to the Edinburgh Handedness Inventory. In Experiment 1, motor performance for aiming, postural tremor, precision of arm-hand movement, speed of arm-hand movement, and wrist-finger speed tasks were tested. In Experiment 2, accelerometer-sensors were used to obtain objective records of hand use in everyday activities

A bibliography of parasites and diseases of marine and freshwater fishes of India

With the increasing demand for fish as human food, aquaculture both in freshwater and salt water is rapidly developing over the world. In the developing countries, fishes are being raised as food. In many countries fish farming is a very important economic activity. The most recent branch, mariculture, has shown advances in raising fishes in brackish, estuarine and bay waters, in which marine, anadromous and catadromous fishes have successfully been grown and maintained

Highly efficient separation of actinides from lanthanides by a phenanthroline-derived bis-triazine ligand

The synthesis, lanthanide complexation, and solvent ex- traction of actinide(III) and lanthanide(III) radiotracers from nitric acid solutions by a phenanthroline-derived quadridentate bis-triazine ligand are described. The ligand separates Am(III) and Cm(III) from the lanthanides with remarkably high efficiency, high selectivity, and fast extraction kinetics compared to its 2,2'-bipyridine counterpart. Structures of the 1:2 bis-complexes of the ligand with Eu(III) and Yb(III) were elucidated by X-ray crystallography and force field calculations, respec-tively. The Eu(III) bis-complex is the first 1:2 bis-complex of a quadridentate bis-triazine ligand to be characterized by crystallography. The faster rates of extraction were verified by kinetics measurements using the rotating membrane cell technique in several diluents. The improved kinetics of metal ion extraction are related to the higher surface activity of the ligand at the phase interface. The improvement in the ligand's properties on replacing the bipyridine unit with a phenanthroline unit far exceeds what was anticipated based on ligand design alone

Structural diversity of biologically interesting datasets: a scaffold analysis approach

ABSTRACT:The recent public availability of the human metabolome and natural product datasets has revitalized "metabolite-likeness" and "natural product-likeness" as a drug design concept to design lead libraries targeting specific pathways. Many reports have analyzed the physicochemical property space of biologically important datasets, with only a few comprehensively characterizing the scaffold diversity in public datasets of biological interest. With large collections of high quality public data currently available, we carried out a comparative analysis of current day leads with other biologically relevant datasets.In this study, we note a two-fold enrichment of metabolite scaffolds in drug dataset (42%) as compared to currently used lead libraries (23%). We also note that only a small percentage (5%) of natural product scaffolds space is shared by the lead dataset. We have identified specific scaffolds that are present in metabolites and natural products, with close counterparts in the drugs, but are missing in the lead dataset. To determine the distribution of compounds in physicochemical property space we analyzed the molecular polar surface area, the molecular solubility, the number of rings and the number of rotatable bonds in addition to four well-known Lipinski properties. Here, we note that, with only few exceptions, most of the drugs follow Lipinski's rule. The average values of the molecular polar surface area and the molecular solubility in metabolites is the highest while the number of rings is the lowest. In addition, we note that natural products contain the maximum number of rings and the rotatable bonds than any other dataset under consideration.Currently used lead libraries make little use of the metabolites and natural products scaffold space. We believe that metabolites and natural products are recognized by at least one protein in the biosphere therefore, sampling the fragment and scaffold space of these compounds, along with the knowledge of distribution in physicochemical property space, can result in better lead libraries. Hence, we recommend the greater use of metabolites and natural products while designing lead libraries. Nevertheless, metabolites have a limited distribution in chemical space that limits the usage of metabolites in library design.14 page(s

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation