Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar

One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics, because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits, these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However, there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here, we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif), which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar, and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates, these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17–74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period, we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements, based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species, representing five families of reptiles and amphibians, we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19–51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29–114 m; mean upper elevation limit −8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial, but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 °C ‘dangerous’ warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution, but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently, we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages, which should also include, when possible, the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74789/1/j.1365-2486.2008.01596.x.pd

The impact of natural resource use on bird and reptile communities within multiple-use protected areas: evidence from sub-arid southern Madagascar

Multiple-use protected areas, in which sustainable levels of extractive livelihood activities are permitted, play an increasingly important role in the global protected area estate, and are expected to rise in prevalence. However, we know little about their effectiveness at conserving biodiversity. We surveyed bird and reptile communities in three areas across a forest disturbance gradient resulting from charcoal production and shifting cultivation within a multiple-use protected area in Madagascar’s sub-arid spiny forest. We scored individual species using a Conservation Value Index (CVI; a simple metric based on rarity, threat and distinctiveness), and estimated the total conservation value of each treatment by calculating the sum of frequency-weighted CVI scores across all present species. Bird and reptile community responses to forest disturbance were idiosyncratic. Bird richness was greatest in the moderate-disturbance treatment, but the low-disturbance treatment had the superior conservation value due to higher frequencies of locally-endemic species. Reptile richness was the same in low- and moderate-disturbance treatments, but the conservation value of the latter was greater. The high-disturbance areas had lowest richness and conservation value for both groups. For birds, increasing disturbance levels were accompanied by community turnover from high-value to low-value species, a pattern highlighted by CVI that is masked by assessing species richness alone. Although some endemic species appear to be resilient to degradation, multiple-use protected areas in Madagascar may lose biodiversity since most endemic species are forest-dependent. Stricter protected area models may be more appropriate in areas where much of the high-value biodiversity is sensitive to habitat degradation