The vector innovation structural time series framework: a simple approach to multivariate forecasting

The vector innovation structural time series framework is proposed as a way of modelling a set of related time series. Like all multi-series approaches, the aim is to exploit potential inter-series dependencies to improve the fit and forecasts. A key feature of the framework is that the series are decomposed into common components such as trend and seasonal effects. Equations that describe the evolution of these components through time are used as the sole way of representing the inter-temporal dependencies. The approach is illustrated on a bivariate data set comprising Australian exchange rates of the UK pound and US dollar. Its forecasting capacity is compared to other common single- and multi-series approaches in an experiment using time series from a large macroeconomic database.Vector innovation structural time series, state space model, multivariate time series, exponential smoothing, forecast comparison, vector autoregression.

Serum hepcidin levels in cognitively normal older adults with high neocortical amyloid-beta load

Background/Objective: Hepcidin, an iron-regulating hormone, suppresses the release of iron by binding to the iron exporter protein, ferroportin, resulting in intracellular iron accumulation. Given that iron dyshomeostasis has been observed in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) together with elevated serum hepcidin levels, the current study examined whether elevated serum hepcidin levels are an early event in AD pathogenesis by measuring the hormone in cognitively normal older adults at risk of AD, based on high neocortical amyloid-β load (NAL). Methods: Serum hepcidin levels in cognitively normal participants (n = 100) aged between 65–90 years were measured using ELISA. To evaluate NAL, all participants underwent 18F-florbetaben positron emission tomography. A standard uptake value ratio (SUVR) \u3c 1.35 was classified as low NAL (n = 65) and ≥ 1.35 (n = 35) was classified as high NAL. Results: Serum hepcidin was significantly higher in participants with high NAL compared to those with low NAL before and after adjusting for covariates: age, gender, and APOE ɛ4 carriage (p  \u3c  0.05). A receiver operating characteristic curve based on a logistic regression of the same covariates, the base model, distinguished high from low NAL (area under the curve, AUC  =  0.766), but was outperformed when serum hepcidin was added to the base model (AUC = 0.794) and further improved with plasma Aβ42/40 ratio (AUC = 0.829). Conclusion: The present findings indicate that serum hepcidin is increased in individuals at risk for AD and contribute to the body of evidence supporting iron dyshomeostasis as an early event of AD. Further, hepcidin may add value to a panel of markers that contribute toward identifying individuals at risk of AD; however, further validation studies are required

Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Plasma neurofilament light chain and amyloid-β are associated with the kynurenine pathway metabolites in preclinical Alzheimer\u27s disease

BACKGROUND: Blood markers indicative of neurodegeneration (neurofilament light chain; NFL), Alzheimer\u27s disease amyloid pathology (amyloid-β; Aβ), and neuroinflammation (kynurenine pathway; KP metabolites) have been investigated independently in neurodegenerative diseases. However, the association of these markers of neurodegeneration and AD pathology with neuroinflammation has not been investigated previously. Therefore, the current study examined whether NFL and Aβ correlate with KP metabolites in elderly individuals to provide insight on the association between blood indicators of neurodegeneration and neuroinflammation. METHODS: Correlations between KP metabolites, measured using liquid chromatography and gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry, and plasma NFL and Aβ concentrations, measured using single molecule array (Simoa) assays, were investigated in elderly individuals aged 65-90 years, with normal global cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination Score ≥ 26) from the Kerr Anglican Retirement Village Initiative in Ageing Health cohort. RESULTS: A positive correlation between NFL and the kynurenine to tryptophan ratio (K/T) reflecting indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase activity was observed (r = .451, p \u3c .0001). Positive correlations were also observed between NFL and kynurenine (r = .364, p \u3c .0005), kynurenic acid (r = .384, p \u3c .0001), 3-hydroxykynurenine (r = .246, p = .014), anthranilic acid (r = .311, p = .002), and quinolinic acid (r = .296, p = .003). Further, significant associations were observed between plasma Aβ40 and the K/T (r = .375, p \u3c .0005), kynurenine (r = .374, p \u3c .0005), kynurenic acid (r = .352, p \u3c .0005), anthranilic acid (r = .381, p \u3c .0005), and quinolinic acid (r = .352, p \u3c .0005). Significant associations were also observed between plasma Aβ42 and the K/T ratio (r = .215, p = .034), kynurenic acid (r = .214, p = .035), anthranilic acid (r = .278, p = .006), and quinolinic acid (r = .224, p = .027) in the cohort. On stratifying participants based on their neocortical Aβ load (NAL) status, NFL correlated with KP metabolites irrespective of NAL status; however, associations between plasma Aβ and KP metabolites were only pronounced in individuals with high NAL while associations in individuals with low NAL were nearly absent. CONCLUSIONS: The current study shows that KP metabolite changes are associated with biomarker evidence of neurodegeneration. Additionally, the association between KP metabolites and plasma Aβ seems to be NAL status dependent. Finally, the current study suggests that an association between neurodegeneration and neuroinflammation manifests in the periphery, suggesting that preventing cytoskeleton cytotoxicity by KP metabolites may have therapeutic potential

Using surveillance data to determine treatment rates and outcomes for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection

The aim of this work was to develop and validate an algorithm to monitor rates of, and response to, treatment of patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) across England using routine laboratory HCV RNA testing data. HCV testing activity between January 2002 and December 2011 was extracted from the local laboratory information systems of a sentinel network of 23 laboratories across England. An algorithm based on frequency of HCV RNA testing within a defined time period was designed to identify treated patients. Validation of the algorithm was undertaken for one center by comparison with treatment data recorded in a clinical database managed by the Trent HCV Study Group. In total, 267,887 HCV RNA test results from 100,640 individuals were extracted. Of these, 78.9% (79,360) tested positive for viral RNA, indicating an active infection, 20.8% (16,538) of whom had a repeat pattern of HCV RNA testing suggestive of treatment monitoring. Annual numbers of individuals treated increased rapidly from 468 in 2002 to 3,295 in 2009, but decreased to 3,110 in 2010. Approximately two thirds (63.3%; 10,468) of those treated had results consistent with a sustained virological response, including 55.3% and 67.1% of those with a genotype 1 and non-1 virus, respectively. Validation against the Trent clinical database demonstrated that the algorithm was 95% sensitive and 93% specific in detecting treatment and 100% sensitive and 93% specific for detecting treatment outcome. Conclusions: Laboratory testing activity, collected through a sentinel surveillance program, has enabled the first country-wide analysis of treatment and response among HCV-infected individuals. Our approach provides a sensitive, robust, and sustainable method for monitoring service provision across Englan

Massively Parallel Sequencing and Analysis of the Necator americanus Transcriptome

The blood-feeding hookworm Necator americanus infects hundreds of millions of people. To elucidate fundamental molecular biological aspects of this hookworm, the transcriptome of adult Necator americanus was studied using next-generation sequencing and in silico analyses. Contigs (n = 19,997) were assembled from the sequence data; 6,771 of them had known orthologues in the free-living nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, and most encoded proteins with WD40 repeats (10.6%), proteinase inhibitors (7.8%) or calcium-binding EF-hand proteins (6.7%). Bioinformatic analyses inferred that C. elegans homologues are involved mainly in biological pathways linked to ribosome biogenesis (70%), oxidative phosphorylation (63%) and/or proteases (60%). Comparative analyses of the transcriptomes of N. americanus and the canine hookworm, Ancylostoma caninum, revealed qualitative and quantitative differences. Essential molecules were predicted using a combination of orthology mapping and functional data available for C. elegans. Further analyses allowed the prioritization of 18 predicted drug targets which did not have human homologues. These candidate targets were inferred to be linked to mitochondrial metabolism or amino acid synthesis. This investigation provides detailed insights into the transcriptome of the adult stage of N. americanus

Retrospective evaluation of whole exome and genome mutation calls in 746 cancer samples

Funder: NCI U24CA211006Abstract: The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) curated consensus somatic mutation calls using whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole genome sequencing (WGS), respectively. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, which aggregated whole genome sequencing data from 2,658 cancers across 38 tumour types, we compare WES and WGS side-by-side from 746 TCGA samples, finding that ~80% of mutations overlap in covered exonic regions. We estimate that low variant allele fraction (VAF < 15%) and clonal heterogeneity contribute up to 68% of private WGS mutations and 71% of private WES mutations. We observe that ~30% of private WGS mutations trace to mutations identified by a single variant caller in WES consensus efforts. WGS captures both ~50% more variation in exonic regions and un-observed mutations in loci with variable GC-content. Together, our analysis highlights technological divergences between two reproducible somatic variant detection efforts