An indicator of the multiple equilibria regime of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Recent model results have suggested that there may be a scalar indicator ? monitoring whether the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is in a multiple equilibrium regime. The quantity ? is based on the net freshwater transport by the MOC into the Atlantic basin. It changes sign as soon as the steady Atlantic MOC enters the multiple equilibrium regime because of an increased freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic. This paper addresses the issue of why the sign of ? is such a good indicator for the multiple equilibrium regime. Changes in the Atlantic freshwater budget over a complete bifurcation diagram and in finite amplitude perturbation experiments are analyzed in a global ocean circulation model. The authors show that the net anomalous freshwater transport into or out of the Atlantic, resulting from the interactions of the velocity perturbations and salinity background field, is coupled to the background (steady state) state freshwater budget and hence to ?. The sign of ? precisely shows whether this net anomalous freshwater transport is stabilizing or destabilizing the MOC. Therefore, it can indicate whether the MOC is in a single or multiple equilibrium regime.<br/

Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by transient perturbations to the hydrological cycle

We reconsider the problem of the stability of the thermohaline circulation as described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq model with mixed boundary conditions. We determine how the stability properties of the system depend on the intensity of the hydrological cycle. We define a two-dimensional parameters' space descriptive of the hydrology of the system and determine, by considering suitable quasi-static perturbations, a bounded region where multiple equilibria of the system are realized. We then focus on how the response of the system to finite-amplitude surface freshwater forcings depends on their rate of increase. We show that it is possible to define a robust separation between slow and fast regimes of forcing. Such separation is obtained by singling out an estimate of the critical growth rate for the anomalous forcing, which can be related to the characteristic advective time scale of the system.Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Clim. Dy

Remarks on Semantic Information Description by Noun Phrases

This paper summarizes some ideas about a new method for information retrieval and data description based on natural language features, which is applicable to both formatted and textual data. The language's ability to express specific terms by noun phrases is particularly useful for describing information requests (queries) and data related to interdisciplinary fields, i.e. energy or environmental research. These fields are characterized by a fluctuating terminology, variety of different data and by information requests, which are difficult to predict. Therefore, it is expected that the proposed information retrieval and data description method will be more efficient than the currently used methods, which are based on Boolean expressions

Solution of a Model for the Oceanic Pycnocline Depth: Scaling of Overturning Strength and Meridional Pressure Difference

We present an analysis of the model by Gnanadesikan [1999] for the pycnocline depth in the ocean. An analytic solution for the overturning strength as a function of the meridional pressure difference is derived and used to discuss their mutual scaling. We show that scaling occurs only in two unphysical regimes of the model. In the absence of the Southern Ocean (SO) processes, i.e. for a northern overturning cell, the volume transport is proportional to the square root of the pressure difference. Linear scaling is seen when the overturning is restricted entirely to the SO, i.e. when no northern downwelling exists. For comparison, we present simulations with the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3$\alpha$ which show linear scaling over a large regime of pressure differences in the North Atlantic (NA). We conclude that the pycnocline model is not able to reproduce the linear scaling between its two central variables, pressure and volume transport.Comment: Geophysical Research Letters (2004), accepted. See also http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~ander

Ocean Circulation

The ocean moderates the Earth's climate due to its vast capacity to store and transport heat; the influence of the large-scale ocean circulation on changes in climate is considered in this chapter. The ocean experiences both buoyancy forcing (through heating/cooling and evaporation/precipitation) and wind forcing. Almost all ocean forcing occurs at the surface, but these changes are communicated throughout the entire depth of the ocean through the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). In a few localized regions, water become sufficiently dense to penetrate thousands of meters deep, where it spreads, providing a continuous source of deep dense water to the entire ocean. Dense water returns to the surface and thus closes the MOC, either through density modification due to diapycnal mixing or by upwelling along sloping isopycnals across the Southern Ocean. Determination of the relative contributions of these two processes in the MOC remains an active area of research. Observations obtained primarily from isotopic compositions in ocean sediments provide substantial evidence that the structure of the MOC has changed significantly in the past. Indeed, large and abrupt changes to the Earth's climate during the past 120,000 years can be linked to either a reorganization or a complete collapse of the MOC. Two of the more dramatic instances of abrupt change include Dansgaard-Oeschger events, abrupt warmings that could exceed 10°C over a period as short as a few decades, and Heinrich events, which are associated with massive freshwater fluxes due to rapid iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic. Numerical models of varying complexity that have captured these abrupt transitions all underscore that the MOC is a highly nonlinear system with feedback loops, multiple equilibria, and hysteresis effects. Prediction of future abrupt shifts in the MOC or “tipping points” remains uncertain. However, the inferred behavior of the MOC during glacial climates suggests that significant modifications to the present circulation are possible and that any change is likely to have a large effect on the Earth's climate

Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to South Atlantic freshwater anomalies

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater budget strongly affect the stability of the AMOC in numerical models. The impact of these biases is investigated, by adding local anomaly patterns in the South Atlantic to the freshwater fluxes at the surface. These anomalies impact the freshwater and salt transport by the different components of the ocean circulation, in particular the basin-scale salt-advection feedback, completely changing the response of the AMOC to arbitrary perturbations. It is found that an appropriate dipole anomaly pattern at the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean can collapse the AMOC entirely even without a further hosing. The results suggest a new view on the stability of the AMOC, controlled by processes in the South Atlantic. <br/

Record monthly-temperature extremes

Póster presentado en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012

Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low

On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming

According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing i