Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by transient perturbations to the hydrological cycle

We reconsider the problem of the stability of the thermohaline circulation as described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq model with mixed boundary conditions. We determine how the stability properties of the system depend on the intensity of the hydrological cycle. We define a two-dimensional parameters' space descriptive of the hydrology of the system and determine, by considering suitable quasi-static perturbations, a bounded region where multiple equilibria of the system are realized. We then focus on how the response of the system to finite-amplitude surface freshwater forcings depends on their rate of increase. We show that it is possible to define a robust separation between slow and fast regimes of forcing. Such separation is obtained by singling out an estimate of the critical growth rate for the anomalous forcing, which can be related to the characteristic advective time scale of the system.Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Clim. Dy

Solution of a Model for the Oceanic Pycnocline Depth: Scaling of Overturning Strength and Meridional Pressure Difference

We present an analysis of the model by Gnanadesikan [1999] for the pycnocline depth in the ocean. An analytic solution for the overturning strength as a function of the meridional pressure difference is derived and used to discuss their mutual scaling. We show that scaling occurs only in two unphysical regimes of the model. In the absence of the Southern Ocean (SO) processes, i.e. for a northern overturning cell, the volume transport is proportional to the square root of the pressure difference. Linear scaling is seen when the overturning is restricted entirely to the SO, i.e. when no northern downwelling exists. For comparison, we present simulations with the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3$\alpha$ which show linear scaling over a large regime of pressure differences in the North Atlantic (NA). We conclude that the pycnocline model is not able to reproduce the linear scaling between its two central variables, pressure and volume transport.Comment: Geophysical Research Letters (2004), accepted. See also http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~ander

An indicator of the multiple equilibria regime of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Recent model results have suggested that there may be a scalar indicator ? monitoring whether the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is in a multiple equilibrium regime. The quantity ? is based on the net freshwater transport by the MOC into the Atlantic basin. It changes sign as soon as the steady Atlantic MOC enters the multiple equilibrium regime because of an increased freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic. This paper addresses the issue of why the sign of ? is such a good indicator for the multiple equilibrium regime. Changes in the Atlantic freshwater budget over a complete bifurcation diagram and in finite amplitude perturbation experiments are analyzed in a global ocean circulation model. The authors show that the net anomalous freshwater transport into or out of the Atlantic, resulting from the interactions of the velocity perturbations and salinity background field, is coupled to the background (steady state) state freshwater budget and hence to ?. The sign of ? precisely shows whether this net anomalous freshwater transport is stabilizing or destabilizing the MOC. Therefore, it can indicate whether the MOC is in a single or multiple equilibrium regime.<br/

Remarks on Semantic Information Description by Noun Phrases

This paper summarizes some ideas about a new method for information retrieval and data description based on natural language features, which is applicable to both formatted and textual data. The language's ability to express specific terms by noun phrases is particularly useful for describing information requests (queries) and data related to interdisciplinary fields, i.e. energy or environmental research. These fields are characterized by a fluctuating terminology, variety of different data and by information requests, which are difficult to predict. Therefore, it is expected that the proposed information retrieval and data description method will be more efficient than the currently used methods, which are based on Boolean expressions

Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to South Atlantic freshwater anomalies

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater budget strongly affect the stability of the AMOC in numerical models. The impact of these biases is investigated, by adding local anomaly patterns in the South Atlantic to the freshwater fluxes at the surface. These anomalies impact the freshwater and salt transport by the different components of the ocean circulation, in particular the basin-scale salt-advection feedback, completely changing the response of the AMOC to arbitrary perturbations. It is found that an appropriate dipole anomaly pattern at the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean can collapse the AMOC entirely even without a further hosing. The results suggest a new view on the stability of the AMOC, controlled by processes in the South Atlantic. <br/

Fast northward energy transfer in the Atlantic due to Agulhas rings

The adiabatic transit time of wave energy radiated by an Agulhas ring released in the South Atlantic Ocean to the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated in a two-layer ocean model. Of particular interest is the arrival time of baroclinic energy in the northern part of the Atlantic, because it is related to variations in the meridional overturning circulation. The influence of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is also studied, because it allows for the conversion from barotropic to baroclinic wave energy and the generation of topographic waves. Barotropic energy from the ring is present in the northern part of the model basin within 10 days. From that time, the barotropic energy keeps rising to attain a maximum 500 days after initiation. This is independent of the presence or absence of a ridge in the model basin. Without a ridge in the model, the travel time of the baroclinic signal is 1300 days. This time is similar to the transit time of the ring from the eastern to the western coast of the model basin. In the presence of the ridge, the baroclinic signal arrives in the northern part of the model basin after approximately 10 days, which is the same time scale as that of the barotropic signal. It is apparent that the ridge can facilitate the energy conversion from barotropic to baroclinic waves and the slow baroclinic adjustment can be bypassed. The meridional overturning circulation, parameterized in two ways as either a purely barotropic or a purely baroclinic phenomenon, also responds after 1300 days. The ring temporarily increases the overturning strength. Th presence of the ridge does not alter the time scales

Ocean Circulation

The ocean moderates the Earth's climate due to its vast capacity to store and transport heat; the influence of the large-scale ocean circulation on changes in climate is considered in this chapter. The ocean experiences both buoyancy forcing (through heating/cooling and evaporation/precipitation) and wind forcing. Almost all ocean forcing occurs at the surface, but these changes are communicated throughout the entire depth of the ocean through the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). In a few localized regions, water become sufficiently dense to penetrate thousands of meters deep, where it spreads, providing a continuous source of deep dense water to the entire ocean. Dense water returns to the surface and thus closes the MOC, either through density modification due to diapycnal mixing or by upwelling along sloping isopycnals across the Southern Ocean. Determination of the relative contributions of these two processes in the MOC remains an active area of research. Observations obtained primarily from isotopic compositions in ocean sediments provide substantial evidence that the structure of the MOC has changed significantly in the past. Indeed, large and abrupt changes to the Earth's climate during the past 120,000 years can be linked to either a reorganization or a complete collapse of the MOC. Two of the more dramatic instances of abrupt change include Dansgaard-Oeschger events, abrupt warmings that could exceed 10°C over a period as short as a few decades, and Heinrich events, which are associated with massive freshwater fluxes due to rapid iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic. Numerical models of varying complexity that have captured these abrupt transitions all underscore that the MOC is a highly nonlinear system with feedback loops, multiple equilibria, and hysteresis effects. Prediction of future abrupt shifts in the MOC or “tipping points” remains uncertain. However, the inferred behavior of the MOC during glacial climates suggests that significant modifications to the present circulation are possible and that any change is likely to have a large effect on the Earth's climate

Reply to Comment on "Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate"

In our analysis [Rahmstorf et al., 2004], we arrived at two main conclusions: the data of Shaviv and Veizer [2003] do not show a significant correlation of cosmic ray flux (CRF) and climate, and the authors' estimate of climate sensitivity to CO2 based on a simple regression analysis is questionable. After careful consideration of Shaviv and Veizer's comment, we want to uphold and reaffirm these conclusions. Concerning the question of correlation, we pointed out that a correlation arose only after several adjustments to the data, including shifting one of the four CRF peaks and stretching the time scale. To calculate statistical significance, we first need to compute the number of independent data points in the CRF and temperature curves being correlated, accounting for their autocorrelation. A standard estimate [Quenouille, 1952] of the number of effective data points is urn:x-wiley:00963941:media:eost14930:eost14930-math-0001 where N is the total number of data points and r1, r2 are the autocorrelations of the two series. For the curves of Shaviv and Veizer [2003], the result is NEFF = 4.8. This is consistent with the fact that these are smooth curves with four humps, and with the fact that for CRF the position of the four peaks is determined by four spiral arm crossings or four meteorite clusters, respectively; that is, by four independent data points. The number of points that enter the calculation of statistical significance of a linear correlation is (NEFF− 2), since any curves based on only two points show perfect correlation; at least three independent points are needed for a meaningful result

Interdecadal variability and oceanic thermohaline adjustment

Changes in the strength of the thermohaline overturning circulation are associated, by geostrophy, with changes in the east-west pressure difference across an ocean basin. The tropical-polar density contrast and the east-west pressure difference are connected by an adjustment process. In flat-bottomed ocean models the adjustment is associated with viscous, baroclinic Kelvin wave propagation. Weak-high latitude stratification leads to the adjustment having an interdecadal timescale. We reexamine model interdecadal oscillations in the context of the adjustment process, for both constant flux and mixed surface boundary conditions. Under constant surface flux, interdecadal oscillations are associated with the passage of a viscous Kelvin wave around the model domain. Our results suggest the oscillations can be self-sustained by perturbations to the western boundary current arising from the southward boundary wave propagation. Mixed boundary condition oscillations are characterized by the eastward, cross-basin movement of salinity-dominated density anomalies, and the westward return of these anomalies along the northern boundary. We suggest the latter is associated with viscous Kelvin wave propagation. Under both types of boundary conditions, the strength of the thermohaline overturning and the tropical-polar density contrast vary out of phase. We show how the phase relationship is related to the boundary wave propagation. The importance of boundary regions indicates an urgent need to examine the robustness of interdecadal variability in models as the resolution is increased, and as the representation of the coastal, shelf/slope wave guide is improved. (Abriged abstract)Comment: 20 pages, AGU LaTeX, 12 figures included using epsfig, to appear in JGR, complete manuscript also available at ftp://crosby.physics.mun.ca/pub/drew/papers/gp1.ps.g

Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands

This international scientific assessment has been carried out at the request of the Dutch Delta Committee. The "Deltacommissie" requested that the assessment explore the high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands. It is a state-of–the art scientific assessment of the upper bound values and longer term projections (for sea level rise up to 2200) of climate induced sea level rise, changing storm surge conditions and peak discharge of river Rhine. It comprises a review of recent studies, model projections and expert opinions of more than 20 leading climate scientists from different countries around the North Sea, Australia and the US