External validation of the Garvan nomograms for predicting absolute fracture risk: The Tromso study

Background: Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort. Methods: The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed.Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance. Results: The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture. Conclusions: The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction

The association between timed up and go test and history of falls: The Tromsø study

BACKGROUND: Fall-related injuries in older adults are a major health problem. Although the aetiology of falls is multifactorial, physical factors are assumed to contribute significantly. The "Timed up and go test" (TUG) is designed to measure basic mobility function. This report evaluates the association between TUG times and history of falls. METHODS: A retrospective, observational, population-based study was conducted on 414 men and 560 women with mean age 77.5 (SD 2.3). TUG time and falls during the previous 12 months were recorded. Covariates were age, sex, medical history and health-related mobility problems. Means, confidence intervals and test characteristics for TUG were calculated. Odds ratios and influence of covariates were examined by logistic regression. RESULTS: The mean TUG time was 11.1s (SD 2.5) among male non-fallers and 13.0s (SD 7.8) among fallers. The difference was 1.9s (95%CI 0.9–3.0). The odds ratio for fallers being in the upper quartile was 2.1 (95%CI 1.4–3.3). Adjusted for covariates, the odds ratio was (OR = 1.8, 95%CI 1.1–2.9). The corresponding mean was 13.0s (SD 5.74) among female non-fallers and 13.9s (SD 8.5) among fallers. The difference was 0.9 (95%CI -0.3–2.1). The odds ratio for fallers being in upper quartile was 1.0 (95%CI 0.7–1.4). The area under the ROC curve was 0.50 (95%CI 0.45–0.55) in women and 0.56 (95%CI 0.50–0.62) in men. CONCLUSION: TUG is statistically associated with a history of falls in men but not in women. The ability to classify fallers is poor, and the clinical value of the association is therefore limited

Effect of genetically low 25-hydroxyvitamin D on mortality risk: Mendelian randomization analysis in 3 large European cohorts

Source at https://doi.org/10.3390/nu11010074.The aim of this study was to determine if increased mortality associated with low levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) reflects a causal relationship by using a Mendelian randomisation (MR) approach with genetic variants in the vitamin D synthesis pathway. Individual participant data from three European cohorts were harmonized with standardization of 25(OH)D according to the Vitamin D Standardization Program. Most relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms of the genes CYP2R1 (rs12794714, rs10741657) and DHCR7/NADSYN1 (rs12785878, rs11234027), were combined in two allelic scores. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used with the ratio estimator and the delta method for calculating the hazards ratio (HR) and standard error of genetically determined 25(OH)D effect on all-cause mortality. We included 10,501 participants (50.1% females, 67.1±10.1 years) of whom 4003 died during a median follow-up of 10.4 years. The observed adjusted HR for all-cause mortality per decrease in 25(OH)D by 20 nmol/L was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.15–1.25). The HR per 20 nmol/L decrease in genetically determined 25(OH)D was 1.32 (95% CI: 0.80–2.24) and 1.35 (95% CI of 0.81 to 2.37) based on the two scores. In conclusion, the results of this MR study in a combined sample from three European cohort studies provide further support for a causal relationship between vitamin D deficiency and increased all-cause mortality. However, as the current study, even with ~10,000 participants, was underpowered for the study of the effect of the allele score on mortality, larger studies on genetics and mortality are needed to improve the precision

Vitamin D and mortality: Individual participant data meta-analysis of standardized 25-hydroxyvitamin D in 26916 individuals from a European consortium

Source at http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170791Background:Vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for mortality but previous meta-analyses lacked standardization of laboratory methods for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and used aggregate data instead of individual participant data (IPD). We therefore performed an IPD meta-analysis on the association between standardized serum 25(OH)D and mortality.Methods:In a European consortium of eight prospective studies, including seven general population cohorts, we used the Vitamin D Standardization Program (VDSP) protocols to standardize 25(OH)D data. Meta-analyses using a one step procedure on IPD were performed to study associations of 25(OH)D with all-cause mortality as the primary outcome, and with cardiovascular and cancer mortality as secondary outcomes. This meta-analysis is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02438488.Findings:We analysed 26916 study participants (median age 61.6 years, 58% females) with a median 25(OH)D concentration of 53.8 nmol/L. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 6802 persons died. Compared to participants with 25(OH)D concentrations of 75 to 99.99 nmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) for mortality in the 25(OH)D groups with 40 to 49.99, 30 to 39.99, and Interpretation:In the first IPD meta-analysis using standardized measurements of 25(OH)D we observed an association between low 25(OH)D and increased risk of all-cause mortality. It is of public health interest to evaluate whether treatment of vitamin D deficiency prevents premature deaths

General principles to consider when designing a clinical communication assessment program

Objectives: Assessment of clinical communication helps teachers in healthcare education determine whether their learners have acquired sufficient skills to meet the demands of clinical practice. The aim of this paper is to give input to educators when planning how to incorporate assessment into clinical communication teaching by building on the authors’ experience and current literature. Methods: A summary of the relevant literature within healthcare education is discussed, focusing on what and where to assess, how to implement assessment and how to choose appropriate methodology. Results: Establishing a coherent approach to teaching, training, and assessment, including assessing communication in the clinical context, is discussed. Key features of how to implement assessment arepresented including: establishing a system with both formative and summative approaches, providing feedback that enhances learning and establishing a multi-source and longitudinal assessment program. Conclusions: The implementation of a reliable, valid, credible, feasible assessment method with specific educational relevance is essential for clinical communication teaching. Practice implications: All assessment methods have strengths and limitations. Since assessment drives learning, assessment should be aligned with the purpose of the teaching program. Combining the use of different assessment formats, multiple observations, and independent measurements in different settings is advised.status: publishe

Progressively Increasing Fracture Risk With Advancing Age After Initial Incident Fragility Fracture: The Tromso Study

The risk of subsequent fracture is increased after initial fractures; however, proper understanding of its magnitude is lacking. This population-based study examines the subsequent fracture risk in women and men by age and type of initial incident fracture. All incident nonvertebral fractures between 1994 and 2009 were registered in 27,158 participants in the TromsO Study, Norway. The analysis included 3108 subjects with an initial incident fracture after the age of 49 years. Subsequent fracture (n=664) risk was expressed as rate ratios (RR) and absolute proportions irrespective of death. The rates of both initial and subsequent fractures increased with age, the latter with the steepest curve. Compared with initial incident fracture rate of 30.8 per 1000 in women and 12.9 per 1000 in men, the overall age-adjusted RR of subsequent fracture was 1.3 (95% CI, 1.2-1.5) in women, and 2.0 (95% CI, 1.6-2.4) in men. Although the RRs decreased with age, the absolute proportions of those with initial fracture who suffered a subsequent fracture increased with age; from 9% to 30% in women and from 10% to 26% in men, between the age groups 50-59 to 80+ years. The type of subsequent fracture varied by age from mostly minor fractures in the youngest to hip or other major fractures in the oldest age groups, irrespective of type and severity of initial fracture. In women and men, 45% and 38% of the subsequent hip or other major fractures, respectively, were preceded by initial minor fractures. The risk of subsequent fracture is high in all age groups. At older age, severe subsequent fracture types follow both clinically severe and minor initial incident fractures. Any fragility fracture in the elderly reflects the need for specific osteoporosis management to reduce further fracture risk