A Comparison of Sea Surface Temperature Perturbation Methods for a Convection Permitting Ensemble Prediction System Over the European Arctic

This article investigates two different methods for perturbing sea surface temperature (SST) in a convection permitting ensemble prediction system based on the AROME-Arctic NWP model. The methods are one that results in perturbations that are purely randomly located and one in which the perturbations are targeted towards locations where the SST errors are thought to be largest. The impact of the magnitude of the perturbations is also tested by scaling the randomly located perturbations to have a similar L1 norm to the targeted perturbations. The impact of the SST error estimate is tested by comparing the method of targeting SST perturbations based on different SST uncertainty estimates. The methods are tested for four high impact weather events over the European Arctic – a polar low, two cold air outbreaks and a severe storm and are verified against near surface observations over land, scatterometer wind speeds over the ocean and against the operational analyses of the model under investigation. It is shown that targeted perturbations generally result in better verification scores when compared with randomly located perturbations. Especially over the ocean it appears that targeting the locations of largest uncertainty can lead to an increased spread without impacting the route mean square error. The results suggest that the impact of SST perturbations over land may be more related to the magnitudes of the perturbations regardless of location, while over the ocean the location of the perturbations becomes more important

Effects of infant feeding with goat milk formula or cow milk formula on atopic dermatitis: protocol of the randomised controlled Goat Infant Formula Feeding and Eczema (GIraFFE) trial

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic, inflammatory skin condition significantly affecting quality of life. A small randomised trial showed an approximately one-third lower incidence of AD in goat milk formula-fed compared with cow milk formula-fed infants. However, due to limited statistical power, AD incidence difference was not found to be significant. This study aims to explore a potential risk reduction of AD by feeding a formula based on whole goat milk (as a source of protein and fat) compared with a formula based on cow milk proteins and vegetable oils. Methods and analysis: This two-arm (1:1 allocation), parallel, randomised, double-blind, controlled nutritional trial shall enrol up to 2296 healthy term-born infants until 3 months of age, if parents choose to start formula feeding. Ten study centres in Spain and Poland are participating. Randomised infants receive investigational infant and follow-on formulas either based on whole goat milk or on cow milk until the age of 12 months. The goat milk formula has a whey:casein ratio of 20:80 and about 50% of the lipids are milk fat from whole goat milk, whereas the cow milk formula, used as control, has a whey:casein ratio of 60:40 and 100% of the lipids are from vegetable oils. The energy and nutrient levels in both goat and cow milk formulas are the same. The primary endpoint is the cumulative incidence of AD until the age of 12 months diagnosed by study personnel based on the UK Working Party Diagnostic Criteria. The secondary endpoints include reported AD diagnosis, measures of AD, blood and stool markers, child growth, sleep, nutrition and quality of life. Participating children are followed until the age of 5 years

Otro título: [Tertulia Literaria Hispanoamericana]. Sesión 665, 23 de noviembre de 1971

Presentación de Ramón de Garcíasol – Min. 11.28: Aplausos – Min. 11.40: Toma la palabra el poeta Carlos Pinto Grote, quien inicia la lectura de su libro “Mundo de la memoria” – Min. 32.48: Aplausos – Min. 33.13: Rafael Montesinos anuncia la próxima tertulia.Ramón de Garcíasol. Carlos Pinto Grote. Rafael MontesinosMadrid, Instituto de Cultura Hispánica. Martes, 23 de noviembre a las ocho de la tard

Otro título: [Tertulia Literaria Hispanoamericana]. Sesión 665, 23 de noviembre de 1971

Ramón de Garcíasol. Carlos Pinto Grote. Rafael MontesinosMadrid, Instituto de Cultura Hispánica. Martes, 23 de noviembre a las ocho de la tardePresentación de Ramón de Garcíasol – Min. 11.28: Aplausos – Min. 11.40: Toma la palabra el poeta Carlos Pinto Grote, quien inicia la lectura de su libro “Mundo de la memoria” – Min. 32.48: Aplausos – Min. 33.13: Rafael Montesinos anuncia la próxima tertulia

Studying the role of protein dynamics in an SN2 enzyme reaction using free-energy surfaces and solvent coordinates

Conformational changes are known to be able to drive an enzyme through its catalytic cycle, allowing, for example, substrate binding or product release. However, the influence of protein motions on the chemical step is a controversial issue. One proposal is that the simple equilibrium fluctuations incorporated into transition-state theory are insufficient to account for the catalytic effect of enzymes and that protein motions should be treated dynamically. Here, we propose the use of free-energy surfaces, obtained as a function of both a chemical coordinate and an environmental coordinate, as an efficient way to elucidate the role of protein structure and motions during the reaction. We show that the structure of the protein provides an adequate environment for the progress of the reaction, although a certain degree of flexibility is needed to attain the full catalytic effect. However, these motions do not introduce significant dynamical corrections to the rate constant and can be described as equilibrium fluctuations