Top secret training data? External training loads of a cup winning English Super League rugby league team

This study quantified the field-based external training loads of professional rugby league players using global positioning systems technology across a playing season. Eleven professional rugby league players were monitored during all field-based training activities during the 2014 Super League season. Training sessions undertaken in preseason (n = 211 observations), early (n = 194 observations), middle (n = 171 observations) and late (n = 206 observations) phases of the in-season were averaged for each player and used in the analyses. Large reductions in external training loads between preseason and in-season periods were observed. Within season, a decrease in intensity (relative distance, absolute and relative total-HSR) with a limited change in training duration was observed. These data provide a useful reference for coaches working with similar cohorts, while future research should quantify the adequacy of the training loads reported, considering impact on performance and injury

Light echoes reveal an unexpectedly cool Eta Carinae during its 19th-century Great Eruption

Eta Carinae (Eta Car) is one of the most massive binary stars in the Milky Way. It became the second-brightest star in the sky during its mid-19th century "Great Eruption," but then faded from view (with only naked-eye estimates of brightness). Its eruption is unique among known astronomical transients in that it exceeded the Eddington luminosity limit for 10 years. Because it is only 2.3 kpc away, spatially resolved studies of the nebula have constrained the ejected mass and velocity, indicating that in its 19th century eruption, Eta Car ejected more than 10 M_solar in an event that had 10% of the energy of a typical core-collapse supernova without destroying the star. Here we report the discovery of light echoes of Eta Carinae which appear to be from the 1838-1858 Great Eruption. Spectra of these light echoes show only absorption lines, which are blueshifted by -210 km/s, in good agreement with predicted expansion speeds. The light-echo spectra correlate best with those of G2-G5 supergiant spectra, which have effective temperatures of ~5000 K. In contrast to the class of extragalactic outbursts assumed to be analogs of Eta Car's Great Eruption, the effective temperature of its outburst is significantly cooler than allowed by standard opaque wind models. This indicates that other physical mechanisms like an energetic blast wave may have triggered and influenced the eruption.Comment: Accepted for publication by Nature; 4 pages, 4 figures, SI: 6 pages, 3 figures, 5 table

Are there gender differences in the geography of alcohol-related mortality in Scotland? An ecological study

<b>Background</b> There is growing concern about alcohol-related harm, particularly within Scotland which has some of the highest rates of alcohol-related death in western Europe. There are large gender differences in alcohol-related mortality rates in Scotland and in other countries, but the reasons for these differences are not clearly understood. In this paper, we aimed to address calls in the literature for further research on gender differences in the causes, contexts and consequences of alcohol-related harm. Our primary research question was whether the kind of social environment which tends to produce higher or lower rates of alcohol-related mortality is the same for both men and women across Scotland. <b>Methods</b> Cross-sectional, ecological design. A comparison was made between spatial variation in men's and women's age-standardised alcohol-related mortality rates in Scotland using maps, Moran's Index, linear regression and spatial analyses of residuals. Directly standardised mortality rates were derived from individual level records of death registration, 2000–2005 (n = 8685). <b>Results</b> As expected, men's alcohol-related mortality rate substantially exceeded women's and there was substantial spatial variation in these rates for both men and women within Scotland. However, there was little spatial variation in the relationship between men's and women's alcohol-mortality rates (r2 = 0.73); areas with relatively high rates of alcohol-related mortality for men tended also to have relatively high rates for women. In a small number of areas (8 out of 144) the relationship between men's and women's alcohol-related mortality rates was significantly different. <b>Conclusion</b> In as far as geographic location captures exposure to social and economic environment, our results suggest that the relationship between social and economic environment and alcohol-related harm is very similar for men and women. The existence of a small number of areas in which men's and women's alcohol-related mortality had an different relationship suggests that some places may have unusual drinking cultures. These might prove useful for further investigations into the factors which influence drinking behaviour in men and women

Caterpillars and fungal pathogens: two co-occurring parasites of an ant-plant mutualism

In mutualisms, each interacting species obtains resources from its partner that it would obtain less efficiently if alone, and so derives a net fitness benefit. In exchange for shelter (domatia) and food, mutualistic plant-ants protect their host myrmecophytes from herbivores, encroaching vines and fungal pathogens. Although selective filters enable myrmecophytes to host those ant species most favorable to their fitness, some insects can by-pass these filters, exploiting the rewards supplied whilst providing nothing in return. This is the case in French Guiana for Cecropia obtusa (Cecropiaceae) as Pseudocabima guianalis caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Pyralidae) can colonize saplings before the installation of their mutualistic Azteca ants. The caterpillars shelter in the domatia and feed on food bodies (FBs) whose production increases as a result. They delay colonization by ants by weaving a silk shield above the youngest trichilium, where the FBs are produced, blocking access to them. This probable temporal priority effect also allows female moths to lay new eggs on trees that already shelter caterpillars, and so to occupy the niche longer and exploit Cecropia resources before colonization by ants. However, once incipient ant colonies are able to develop, they prevent further colonization by the caterpillars. Although no higher herbivory rates were noted, these caterpillars are ineffective in protecting their host trees from a pathogenic fungus, Fusarium moniliforme (Deuteromycetes), that develops on the trichilium in the absence of mutualistic ants. Therefore, the Cecropia treelets can be parasitized by two often overlooked species: the caterpillars that shelter in the domatia and feed on FBs, delaying colonization by mutualistic ants, and the fungal pathogen that develops on old trichilia. The cost of greater FB production plus the presence of the pathogenic fungus likely affect tree growth

A Blast Wave from the 1843 Eruption of Eta Carinae

Very massive stars shed much of their mass in violent precursor eruptions as luminous blue variables (LBVs) before reaching their most likely end as supernovae, but the cause of LBV eruptions is unknown. The 19th century eruption of Eta Carinae, the prototype of these events, ejected about 12 solar masses at speeds of 650 km/s, with a kinetic energy of almost 10^50 ergs. Some faster material with speeds up to 1000-2000 km/s had previously been reported but its full distribution was unknown. Here I report observations of much faster material with speeds up to 3500-6000 km/s, reaching farther from the star than the fastest material in earlier reports. This fast material roughly doubles the kinetic energy of the 19th century event, and suggests that it released a blast wave now propagating ahead of the massive ejecta. Thus, Eta Car's outer shell now mimics a low-energy supernova remnant. The eruption has usually been discussed in terms of an extreme wind driven by the star's luminosity, but fast material reported here suggests that it was powered by a deep-seated explosion rivalling a supernova, perhaps triggered by the pulsational pair instability. This may alter interpretations of similar events seen in other galaxies.Comment: 10 pages, 3 color figs, supplementary information. Accepted by Natur

Predictive feedback control and Fitts' law

Fitts’ law is a well established empirical formula, known for encapsulating the “speed-accuracy trade-off”. For discrete, manual movements from a starting location to a target, Fitts’ law relates movement duration to the distance moved and target size. The widespread empirical success of the formula is suggestive of underlying principles of human movement control. There have been previous attempts to relate Fitts’ law to engineering-type control hypotheses and it has been shown that the law is exactly consistent with the closed-loop step-response of a time-delayed, first-order system. Assuming only the operation of closed-loop feedback, either continuous or intermittent, this paper asks whether such feedback should be predictive or not predictive to be consistent with Fitts law. Since Fitts’ law is equivalent to a time delay separated from a first-order system, known control theory implies that the controller must be predictive. A predictive controller moves the time-delay outside the feedback loop such that the closed-loop response can be separated into a time delay and rational function whereas a non- predictive controller retains a state delay within feedback loop which is not consistent with Fitts’ law. Using sufficient parameters, a high-order non-predictive controller could approximately reproduce Fitts’ law. However, such high-order, “non-parametric” controllers are essentially empirical in nature, without physical meaning, and therefore are conceptually inferior to the predictive controller. It is a new insight that using closed-loop feedback, prediction is required to physically explain Fitts’ law. The implication is that prediction is an inherent part of the “speed-accuracy trade-off”

Towards emotion recognition for virtual environments: an evaluation of eeg features on benchmark dataset

One of the challenges in virtual environments is the difficulty users have in interacting with these increasingly complex systems. Ultimately, endowing machines with the ability to perceive users emotions will enable a more intuitive and reliable interaction. Consequently, using the electroencephalogram as a bio-signal sensor, the affective state of a user can be modelled and subsequently utilised in order to achieve a system that can recognise and react to the user’s emotions. This paper investigates features extracted from electroencephalogram signals for the purpose of affective state modelling based on Russell’s Circumplex Model. Investigations are presented that aim to provide the foundation for future work in modelling user affect to enhance interaction experience in virtual environments. The DEAP dataset was used within this work, along with a Support Vector Machine and Random Forest, which yielded reasonable classification accuracies for Valence and Arousal using feature vectors based on statistical measurements and band power from the and waves and High Order Crossing of the EEG signal

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Assessing frailty amongst older people admitted to hospital in a low-income setting: a multicentre study in northern Tanzania

\ua9 The Author(s) 2024.Background: Populations are ageing globally and Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) are experiencing the fastest rates of demographic change. Few studies have explored the burden of frailty amongst older people in hospital in LMICs, where healthcare services are having to rapidly adapt to align with the needs of older people. This study aimed to measure the prevalence of frailty amongst older people admitted to hospital in Tanzania and to explore their demographic and clinical characteristics. Methods: This study had a prospective observational design. Over a six-month period, all adults ≥ 60 years old admitted to medical wards in four hospitals in northern Tanzania were invited to participate. They were screened for frailty using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and the Frailty Phenotype (FP). Demographic and clinical characteristics of interest were recorded in a structured questionnaire. These included the Barthel Index, the Identification of Elderly Africans Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADEA-IADL) and Cognitive (IDEA-Cog) screens, the EURO-D depression scale and Confusion Assessment Method. Results: 540 adults aged ≥ 60 were admitted, and 308 completed assessment. Frailty was present in 66.6% using the CFS and participants with frailty were significantly older, with lower levels of education and literacy, greater disability, greater comorbidity, poorer cognition and higher levels of delirium. Using the FP, 57.0% of participants were classed as frail though a majority of participants (n = 159, 51.6%) could not be classified due to a high proportion of missing data. Conclusions: This study indicates that the prevalence of frailty on medical wards in northern Tanzania is high according to the CFS. However, the challenges in operationalising the FP in this setting highlight the need for future work to adapt frailty screening tools for an African context. Future investigations should also seek to correlate frailty status with long-term clinical outcomes after admission in this setting

Formation of regulatory modules by local sequence duplication

Turnover of regulatory sequence and function is an important part of molecular evolution. But what are the modes of sequence evolution leading to rapid formation and loss of regulatory sites? Here, we show that a large fraction of neighboring transcription factor binding sites in the fly genome have formed from a common sequence origin by local duplications. This mode of evolution is found to produce regulatory information: duplications can seed new sites in the neighborhood of existing sites. Duplicate seeds evolve subsequently by point mutations, often towards binding a different factor than their ancestral neighbor sites. These results are based on a statistical analysis of 346 cis-regulatory modules in the Drosophila melanogaster genome, and a comparison set of intergenic regulatory sequence in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In fly regulatory modules, pairs of binding sites show significantly enhanced sequence similarity up to distances of about 50 bp. We analyze these data in terms of an evolutionary model with two distinct modes of site formation: (i) evolution from independent sequence origin and (ii) divergent evolution following duplication of a common ancestor sequence. Our results suggest that pervasive formation of binding sites by local sequence duplications distinguishes the complex regulatory architecture of higher eukaryotes from the simpler architecture of unicellular organisms