The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility

Rising global temperatures are threatening biodiversity. Studies on the impact of temperature on natural populations usually use lethal or viability thresholds, termed the ‘critical thermal limit’ (CTL). However, this overlooks important sublethal impacts of temperature that could affect species’ persistence. Here we discuss a critical but overlooked trait: fertility, which can deteriorate at temperatures less severe than an organism’s lethal limit. We argue that studies examining the ecological and evolutionary impacts of climate change should consider the ‘thermal fertility limit’ (TFL) of species; we propose that a framework for the design of TFL studies across taxa be developed. Given the importance of fertility for population persistence, understanding how climate change affects TFLs is vital for the assessment of future biodiversity impacts

Plastic responses of survival and fertility following heat stress in pupal and adult Drosophila virilis

The impact of rising global temperatures on survival and reproduction is putting many species at risk of extinction. In particular, it has recently been shown that thermal effects on reproduction, especially limits to male fertility, can underpin species distributions in insects. However, the physiological factors influencing fertility at high temperatures are poorly understood. Key factors that affect somatic thermal tolerance such as hardening, the ability to phenotypically increase thermal tolerance after a mild heat shock, and the differential impact of temperature on different life stages are largely unexplored for thermal fertility tolerance. Here, we examine the impact of high temperatures on male fertility in the cosmopolitan fruit fly Drosophila virilis. We first determined whether temperature stress at either the pupal or adult life history stage impacts fertility. We then tested the capacity for heat-hardening to mitigate heat-induced sterility. We found that thermal stress reduces fertility in different ways in pupae and adults. Pupal heat stress delays sexual maturity, whereas males heated as adults can reproduce initially following heat stress, but become sterile within seven days. We also found evidence that while heat-hardening in D. virilis can improve high temperature survival, there is no significant protective impact of this same hardening treatment on fertility. These results suggest that males may be unable to prevent the costs of high temperature stress on fertility through heat-hardening, which limits a species’ ability to quickly and effectively reduce fertility loss in the face of short-term high temperature events

Why do women not use antenatal services in low and middle income countries? A metasynthesis of qualitative studies

Background: Almost 50% of women in low & middle income countries (LMIC’s) don’t receive adequate antenatal care. Women’s views can offer important insights into this problem. Qualitative studies exploring inadequate use of antenatal services have been undertaken in a range of countries, but the findings are not easily transferable. We aimed to inform the development of future antenatal care programmes through a synthesis of findings in all relevant qualitative studies. Methods and Findings: Using a pre-determined search strategy, we identified robust qualitative studies reporting on the views and experiences of women in LMIC’s who received inadequate antenatal care. We used meta-ethnographic techniques to generate themes and a line of argument synthesis. We derived policy relevant hypotheses from the findings. We included 21 papers representing the views of more than 1230 women from 15 countries. Three key themes were identified: ‘Pregnancy as socially risky and physiologically healthy’; ‘Resource use and survival in conditions of extreme poverty’and ‘Not getting it right first time’. The line of argument synthesis describes a dissonance between programme design and cultural contexts that may restrict access and discourage return visits. We hypothesize that centralized, risk-focused antenatal care programmes may be at odds with the resources, beliefs and experiences of pregnant women who underuse antenatal services. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that there may be a mis-alignment between current antenatal provision and the social and cultural context of some women in LMIC’s. Antenatal care provision that is theoretically and contextually at odds with local contextual beliefs and experiences are likely to be underused, especially when attendance generates increased personal risks of lost family resource or physical danger during travel; when the promised care is not delivered due to resource constraints; and when women experience covert or overt abuse in care settings

The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study

Background Population-based cancer registries strive to cover all cancer cases diagnosed within the population, but some cases will always be missed and no register is 100 % complete. Many cancer registries use death certificates to identify additional cases not captured through other routine sources, to hopefully add a large proportion of the missed cases. Cases notified through this route, who would not have been captured without death certificate information, are referred to as Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases. Inclusion of DCI cases in cancer registries increases completeness and is important for estimating cancer incidence. However, inclusion of DCI cases will generally lead to biased estimates of cancer survival, but the same is often also true if excluding DCI cases. Missed cases are probably not a random sample of all cancer cases, but rather cases with poor prognosis. Further, DCI cases have poorer prognosis than missed cases in general, since they have all died with cancer mentioned on the death certificates. Methods We performed a simulation study to estimate the impact of including or excluding DCI cases on cancer survival estimates, under different scenarios. Results We demonstrated that including DCI cases underestimates survival. The exclusion of DCI cases gives unbiased survival estimates if missed cases are a random sample of all cancer cases, while survival is overestimated if these have poorer prognosis. Conclusion In our most extreme scenarios, with 25 % of cases initially missed, the usual practice of including DCI cases underestimated 5-year survival by at most 3 percentage points

Exploring the impact of cancer registry completeness on international cancer survival differences: a simulation study

Background Data from population-based cancer registries are often used to compare cancer survival between countries or regions. The ICBP SURVMARK-2 study is an international partnership aiming to quantify and explore the reasons behind survival differences across high-income countries. However, the magnitude and relevance of differences in cancer survival between countries have been questioned, as it is argued that observed survival variations may be explained, at least in part, by differences in cancer registration practice, completeness and the availability and quality of the respective data sources. Methods As part of the ICBP SURVMARK-2 study, we used a simulation approach to better understand how differences in completeness, the characteristics of those missed and inclusion of cases found from death certificates can impact on cancer survival estimates. Results Bias in 1- and 5-year net survival estimates for 216 simulated scenarios is presented. Out of the investigated factors, the proportion of cases not registered through sources other than death certificates, had the largest impact on survival estimates. Conclusion Our results show that the differences in registration practice between participating countries could in our most extreme scenarios explain only a part of the largest observed differences in cancer survival

Speech delays and behavioral problems are the predominant features in individuals with developmental delays and 16p11.2 microdeletions and microduplications

Microdeletions and microduplications encompassing a ~593-kb region of 16p11.2 have been implicated as one of the most common genetic causes of susceptibility to autism/autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We report 45 microdeletions and 32 microduplications of 16p11.2, representing 0.78% of 9,773 individuals referred to our laboratory for microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) testing for neurodevelopmental and congenital anomalies. The microdeletion was de novo in 17 individuals and maternally inherited in five individuals for whom parental testing was available. Detailed histories of 18 individuals with 16p11.2 microdeletions were reviewed; all had developmental delays with below-average intelligence, and a majority had speech or language problems or delays and various behavioral problems. Of the 16 individuals old enough to be evaluated for autism, the speech/behavior profiles of seven did not suggest the need for ASD evaluation. Of the remaining nine individuals who had speech/behavior profiles that aroused clinical suspicion of ASD, five had formal evaluations, and three had PDD-NOS. Of the 19 microduplications with parental testing, five were de novo, nine were maternally inherited, and five were paternally inherited. A majority with the microduplication had delayed development and/or specific deficits in speech or language, though these features were not as consistent as seen with the microdeletions. This study, which is the largest cohort of individuals with 16p11.2 alterations reported to date, suggests that 16p11.2 microdeletions and microduplications are associated with a high frequency of cognitive, developmental, and speech delay and behavior abnormalities. Furthermore, although features associated with these alterations can be found in individuals with ASD, additional factors are likely required to lead to the development of ASD

Variational perturbation theory for electrolyte solutions

In most approaches to the statistical mechanics, the focus is on the particles in the system, where the partition function is given as an integral over their positions and orientations. In this chapter, we consider a field theoretic perspective, where the focus is on the interaction fields generated by the particles in the system, rather than the particles themselves. This approach has some advantages in that it can account for the large scale fluctuations in the system with natural approximation schemes. The two that are considered in this work are the mean-field approximation and variational perturbation theory. For electrolyte solutions, this leads naturally to the Poisson-Boltzmann theory and its improved modifications

High-Density SNP Screening of the Major Histocompatibility Complex in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Demonstrates Strong Evidence for Independent Susceptibility Regions

A substantial genetic contribution to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) risk is conferred by major histocompatibility complex (MHC) gene(s) on chromosome 6p21. Previous studies in SLE have lacked statistical power and genetic resolution to fully define MHC influences. We characterized 1,610 Caucasian SLE cases and 1,470 parents for 1,974 MHC SNPs, the highly polymorphic HLA-DRB1 locus, and a panel of ancestry informative markers. Single-marker analyses revealed strong signals for SNPs within several MHC regions, as well as with HLA-DRB1 (global p = 9.99×10−16). The most strongly associated DRB1 alleles were: *0301 (odds ratio, OR = 2.21, p = 2.53×10−12), *1401 (OR = 0.50, p = 0.0002), and *1501 (OR = 1.39, p = 0.0032). The MHC region SNP demonstrating the strongest evidence of association with SLE was rs3117103, with OR = 2.44 and p = 2.80×10−13. Conditional haplotype and stepwise logistic regression analyses identified strong evidence for association between SLE and the extended class I, class I, class III, class II, and the extended class II MHC regions. Sequential removal of SLE–associated DRB1 haplotypes revealed independent effects due to variation within OR2H2 (extended class I, rs362521, p = 0.006), CREBL1 (class III, rs8283, p = 0.01), and DQB2 (class II, rs7769979, p = 0.003, and rs10947345, p = 0.0004). Further, conditional haplotype analyses demonstrated that variation within MICB (class I, rs3828903, p = 0.006) also contributes to SLE risk independent of HLA-DRB1*0301. Our results for the first time delineate with high resolution several MHC regions with independent contributions to SLE risk. We provide a list of candidate variants based on biologic and functional considerations that may be causally related to SLE risk and warrant further investigation