Statistical relational learning with soft quantifiers

Quantification in statistical relational learning (SRL) is either existential or universal, however humans might be more inclined to express knowledge using soft quantifiers, such as ``most'' and ``a few''. In this paper, we define the syntax and semantics of PSL^Q, a new SRL framework that supports reasoning with soft quantifiers, and present its most probable explanation (MPE) inference algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, PSL^Q is the first SRL framework that combines soft quantifiers with first-order logic rules for modelling uncertain relational data. Our experimental results for link prediction in social trust networks demonstrate that the use of soft quantifiers not only allows for a natural and intuitive formulation of domain knowledge, but also improves the accuracy of inferred results

Markov propagation of allosteric effects in biomolecular systems: application to GroEL–GroES

We introduce a novel approach for elucidating the potential pathways of allosteric communication in biomolecular systems. The methodology, based on Markov propagation of ‘information' across the structure, permits us to partition the network of interactions into soft clusters distinguished by their coherent stochastics. Probabilistic participation of residues in these clusters defines the communication patterns inherent to the network architecture. Application to bacterial chaperonin complex GroEL–GroES, an allostery-driven structure, identifies residues engaged in intra- and inter-subunit communication, including those acting as hubs and messengers. A number of residues are distinguished by their high potentials to transmit allosteric signals, including Pro33 and Thr90 at the nucleotide-binding site and Glu461 and Arg197 mediating inter- and intra-ring communication, respectively. We propose two most likely pathways of signal transmission, between nucleotide- and GroES-binding sites across the cis and trans rings, which involve several conserved residues. A striking observation is the opposite direction of information flow within cis and trans rings, consistent with negative inter-ring cooperativity. Comparison with collective modes deduced from normal mode analysis reveals the propensity of global hinge regions to act as messengers in the transmission of allosteric signals

30 days wild: development and evaluation of a large-scale nature engagement campaign to improve well-being

There is a need to increase people’s engagement with and connection to nature, both for human well-being and the conservation of nature itself. In order to suggest ways for people to engage with nature and create a wider social context to normalise nature engagement, The Wildlife Trusts developed a mass engagement campaign, 30 Days Wild. The campaign asked people to engage with nature every day for a month. 12,400 people signed up for 30 Days Wild via an online sign-up with an estimated 18,500 taking part overall, resulting in an estimated 300,000 engagements with nature by participants. Samples of those taking part were found to have sustained increases in happiness, health, connection to nature and pro-nature behaviours. With the improvement in health being predicted by the improvement in happiness, this relationship was mediated by the change in connection to nature

Country differences in the diagnosis and management of coronary heart disease : a comparison between the US, the UK and Germany

Background The way patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) are treated is partly determined by non-medical factors. There is a solid body of evidence that patient and physician characteristics influence doctors' management decisions. Relatively little is known about the role of structural issues in the decision making process. This study focuses on the question whether doctors' diagnostic and therapeutic decisions are influenced by the health care system in which they take place. This non-medical determinant of medical decision-making was investigated in an international research project in the US, the UK and Germany. Methods Videotaped patients within an experimental study design were used. Experienced actors played the role of patients with symptoms of CHD. Several alternative versions were taped featuring the same script with patients of different sex, age and social status. The videotapes were shown to 384 randomly selected primary care physicians in the three countries under study. The sample was stratified on gender and duration of professional experience. Physicians were asked how they would diagnose and manage the patient after watching the video vignette using a questionnaire with standardised and open-ended questions. Results Results show only small differences in decision making between British and American physicians in essential aspects of care. About 90% of the UK and US doctors identified CHD as one of the possible diagnoses. Further similarities were found in test ordering and lifestyle advice. Some differences between the US and UK were found in the certainty of the diagnoses, prescribed medications and referral behaviour. There are numerous significant differences between Germany and the other two countries. German physicians would ask fewer questions, they would order fewer tests, prescribe fewer medications and give less lifestyle advice. Conclusion Although all physicians in the three countries under study were presented exactly the same patient, some disparities in the diagnostic and patient management decisions were evident. Since other possible influences on doctors treatment decisions are controlled within the experimental design, characteristics of the health care system seem to be a crucial factor within the decision making process

Biological and technical variables affecting immunoassay recovery of cytokines from human serum and simulated vaginal fluid: A multicenter study

The increase of proinflammatory cytokines in vaginal secretions may serve as a surrogate marker of unwanted inflammatory reaction to microbicide products topically applied for the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV-1. Interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6 have been proposed as indicators of inflammation and increased risk of HIV-1 transmission; however, the lack of information regarding detection platforms optimal for vaginal fluids and interlaboratory variation limit their use for microbicide evaluation and other clinical applications. This study examines fluid matrix variants relevant to vaginal sampling techniques and proposes a model for interlaboratory comparisons across current cytokine detection technologies. IL-1β and IL-6 standards were measured by 12 laboratories in four countries, using 14 immunoassays and four detection platforms based on absorbance, chemiluminescence, electrochemiluminescence, and fluorescence. International reference preparations of cytokines with defined biological activity were spiked into (1) a defined medium simulating the composition of human vaginal fluid at pH 4.5 and 7.2, (2) physiologic salt solutions (phosphate-buffered saline and saline) commonly used for vaginal lavage sampling in clinical studies of cytokines, and (3) human blood serum. Assays were assessed for reproducibility, linearity, accuracy, and significantly detectable fold difference in cytokine level. Factors with significant impact on cytokine recovery were determined by Kruskal−Wallis analysis of variance with Dunn’s multiple comparison test and multiple regression models. All assays showed acceptable intra-assay reproducibility; however, most were associated with significant interlaboratory variation. The smallest reliably detectable cytokine differences (P < 0.05) derived from pooled interlaboratory data varied from 1.5- to 26-fold depending on assay, cytokine, and matrix type. IL-6 but not IL-1β determinations were lower in both saline and phosphate-buffered saline as compared to vaginal fluid matrix, with no significant effect of pH. The (electro)chemiluminescence-based assays were most discriminative and consistently detected <2-fold differences within each matrix type. The Luminex-based assays were less discriminative with lower reproducibility between laboratories. These results suggest the need for uniform vaginal sampling techniques and a better understanding of immunoassay platform differences and cross-validation before the biological significance of cytokine variations can be validated in clinical trials. This investigation provides the first standardized analytic approach for assessing differences in mucosal cytokine levels and may improve strategies for monitoring immune responses at the vaginal mucosal interface

A cluster randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Intermediate Care Clinics for Diabetes (ICCD) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background World-wide healthcare systems are faced with an epidemic of type 2 diabetes. In the United Kingdom, clinical care is primarily provided by general practitioners (GPs) rather than hospital specialists. Intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCD) potentially provide a model for supporting GPs in their care of people with poorly controlled type 2 diabetes and in their management of cardiovascular risk factors. This study aims to (1) compare patients with type 2 diabetes registered with practices that have access to an ICCD service with those that have access only to usual hospital care; (2) assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention; and (3) explore the views and experiences of patients, health professionals and other stakeholders. Methods/Design This two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial (with integral economic evaluation and qualitative study) is set in general practices in three UK Primary Care Trusts. Practices are randomized to one of two groups with patients referred to either an ICCD (intervention) or to hospital care (control). Intervention group: GP practices in the intervention arm have the opportunity to refer patients to an ICCD - a multidisciplinary team led by a specialist nurse and a diabetologist. Patients are reviewed and managed in the ICCD for a short period with a goal of improving diabetes and cardiovascular risk factor control and are then referred back to practice. or Control group: Standard GP care, with referral to secondary care as required, but no access to ICCD. Participants are adults aged 18 years or older who have type 2 diabetes that is difficult for their GPs to control. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants reaching three risk factor targets: HbA1c (≤7.0%); blood pressure (<140/80); and cholesterol (<4 mmol/l), at the end of the 18-month intervention period. The main secondary outcomes are the proportion of participants reaching individual risk factor targets and the overall 10-year risks for coronary heart disease(CHD) and stroke assessed by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Other secondary outcomes include body mass index and waist circumference, use of medication, reported smoking, emotional adjustment, patient satisfaction and views on continuity, costs and health related quality of life. We aimed to randomize 50 practices and recruit 2,555 patients

Comprehensive Analysis of Market Conditions in the Foreign Exchange Market: Fluctuation Scaling and Variance-Covariance Matrix

We investigate quotation and transaction activities in the foreign exchange market for every week during the period of June 2007 to December 2010. A scaling relationship between the mean values of number of quotations (or number of transactions) for various currency pairs and the corresponding standard deviations holds for a majority of the weeks. However, the scaling breaks in some time intervals, which is related to the emergence of market shocks. There is a monotonous relationship between values of scaling indices and global averages of currency pair cross-correlations when both quantities are observed for various window lengths $\Delta t$.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure

In vivo measurement of bending stiffness in fracture healing

BACKGROUND: Measurement of the bending stiffness a healing fracture represents a valid variable in the assessment of fracture healing. However, currently available methods typically have high measurement errors, even for mild pin loosening. Furthermore, these methods cannot provide actual values of bending stiffness, which precludes comparisons among individual fractures. Thus, even today, little information is available with regards to the fracture healing pattern with respect to actual values of bending stiffness. Our goals were, therefore: to develop a measurement device that would allow accurate and sensitive measurement of bending stiffness, even in the presence of mild pin loosening; to describe the course of healing in individual fractures; and help to evaluate whether the individual pattern of bending stiffness can be predicted at an early stage of healing. METHODS: A new measurement device has been developed to precisely measure the bending stiffness of the healing fracture by simulating four-point-bending. The system was calibrated on aluminum models and intact tibiae. The influence of pin loosening on measurement error was evaluated. The system was tested at weekly intervals in an animal experiment to determine the actual bending stiffness of the fracture. Transverse fractures were created in the right tibia of twelve sheep, and then stabilized with an external fixator. At ten weeks, bending stiffness of the tibiae were determined in a four-point-bending test device to validate the in-vivo-measurement data. RESULTS: In-vivo bending stiffness can be measured accurately and sensitive, even in the early phase of callus healing. Up to a bending stiffness of 10 Nm/degree, measurement error was below 3.4% for one pin loose, and below 29.3% for four pins loose, respectively. Measurement of stiffness data over time revealed a significant logarithmic increase between the third and seventh weeks, whereby the logarithmic rate of change among sheep was similar, but started from different levels. Comparative measurements showed that early individual changes between the third and fourth weeks can be used as a predictor of bending stiffness at seven weeks (r = 0.928) and at ten weeks (r = 0.710). CONCLUSION: Bending stiffness can be measured precisely, with less error in the case of pin loosening. Prediction of the future healing course of the individual fracture can be assessed by changes from the third to the fourth week, with differences in stiffness levels. Therefore, the initial status of the fracture seems to have a high impact on the individual healing course

Elevation and cholera: an epidemiological spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009. METHODS: We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution) with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs. RESULTS: This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive activities linked with water and sanitation in endemic areas. Furthermore, elevation information, among other risk factors, could help to spatially orientate cholera control interventions during an epidemic

T Cell Integrin Overexpression as a Model of Murine Autoimmunity

Integrin adhesion molecules have important adhesion and signaling functions. They also play a central role in the pathogenesis of many autoimmune diseases. Over the past few years we have described a T cell adoptive transfer model to investigate the role of T cell integrin adhesion molecules in the development of autoimmunity. This report summarizes the methods we used in establishing this murine model. By treating murine CD4+ T cells with DNA hypomethylating agents and by transfection we were able to test the in vitro effects of integrin overexpression on T cell autoreactive proliferation, cytotoxicity, adhesion and trafficking. Furthermore, we showed that the ability to induce in vivo autoimmunity may be unique to the integrin lymphocyte function associated antigen-1 (LFA-1)