336 research outputs found
Epidemic Enhancement in Partially Immune Populations
We observe that a pathogen introduce/pmcdata/journal/plosone/2-2007/1/ingest/pmcmod/sgml/pone.0000165.xmld into a population containing individuals with acquired immunity can result in an epidemic longer in duration and/or larger in size than if the pathogen were introduced into a naive population. We call this phenomenon âepidemic enhancement,â and use simple dynamical models to show that it is a realistic scenario within the parameter ranges of many common infectious diseases. This finding implies that repeated pathogen introduction or intermediate levels of vaccine coverage can lead to pathogen persistence in populations where extinction would otherwise be expected
Recommended from our members
How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics
Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable
populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators.
Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species,
it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding
season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating
population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in
the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling.
Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and
ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities
whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical
autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of
altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the
presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator
assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the
oscillations.
Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results
allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the
reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape
fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in
future analyses of vole dynamics
Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments
Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity
increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of
populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental
stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we
study the following model for population abundances in patches: the
conditional law of given is such that when is small the
conditional mean of is approximately , where and are the abundance and per
capita growth rate in the -th patch respectivly, and is the
dispersal rate from the -th to the -th patch, and the conditional
covariance of and is approximately . We show for such a spatially extended population that if
is the total population abundance, then ,
the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector
as , and the stochastic growth rate equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate
\sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the
space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i
Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the
law of , find which choice of the dispersal mechanism produces an
optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and
investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on
dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free"
movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink
populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several
small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure
Garden and landscape-scale correlates of moths of differing conservation status: significant effects of urbanization and habitat diversity
Moths are abundant and ubiquitous in vegetated terrestrial environments and are pollinators, important herbivores of wild plants, and food for birds, bats and rodents. In recent years, many once abundant and widespread species have shown sharp declines that have been cited by some as indicative of a widespread insect biodiversity crisis. Likely causes of these declines include agricultural intensification, light pollution, climate change, and urbanization; however, the real underlying cause(s) is still open to conjecture. We used data collected from the citizen science Garden Moth Scheme (GMS) to explore the spatial association between the abundance of 195 widespread British species of moth, and garden habitat and landscape features, to see if spatial habitat and landscape associations varied for species of differing conservation status. We found that associations with habitat and landscape composition were species-specific, but that there were consistent trends in species richness and total moth abundance. Gardens with more diverse and extensive microhabitats were associated with higher species richness and moth abundance; gardens near to the coast were associated with higher richness and moth abundance; and gardens in more urbanized locations were associated with lower species richness and moth abundance. The same trends were also found for species classified as increasing, declining and vulnerable under IUCN (World Conservation Union) criteria
Perceived Discrimination and Adherence to Medical Care in a Racially Integrated Community
BACKGROUND: Past research indicates that access to health care and utilization of services varies by sociodemographic characteristics, but little is known about racial differences in health care utilization within racially integrated communities. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether perceived discrimination was associated with delays in seeking medical care and adherence to medical care recommendations among African Americans and whites living in a socioeconomically homogenous and racially integrated community. DESIGN: A cross-sectional analysis from the Exploring Health Disparities in Integrated Communities Study. PARTICIPANTS: Study participants include 1,408 African-American (59.3%) and white (40.7%) adults (â„18Â years) in Baltimore, Md. MEASUREMENTS: An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to assess the associations of perceived discrimination with help-seeking behavior for and adherence to medical care. RESULTS: For both African Americans and whites, a report of 1â2 and >2 discrimination experiences in oneâs lifetime were associated with more medical care delays and nonadherence compared to those with no experiences after adjustment for need, enabling, and predisposing factors (odds ratio [OR]â=â1.8, 2.6; ORâ=â2.2, 3.3, respectively; all Pâ<â.05). Results were similar for perceived discrimination occurring in the past year. CONCLUSIONS: Experiences with discrimination were associated with delays in seeking medical care and poor adherence to medical care recommendations INDEPENDENT OF NEED, ENABLING, AND PREDISPOSING FACTORS, INCLUDING MEDICAL MISTRUST; however, a prospective study is needed. Further research in this area should include exploration of other potential mechanisms for the association between perceived discrimination and health service utilization
Restored Agricultural Wetlands in central Iowa: Habitat Quality and Amphibian Response
Amphibians are declining throughout the United States and worldwide due, partly, to habitat loss. Conservation practices on the landscape restore wetlands to denitrify tile drainage effluent and restore ecosystem services. Understanding how water quality, hydroperiod, predation, and disease affect amphibians in restored wetlands is central to maintaining healthy amphibian populations in the region. We examined the quality of amphibian habitat in restored wetlands relative to reference wetlands by comparing species richness, developmental stress, and adult leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) survival probabilities to a suite of environmental metrics. Although measured habitat variables differed between restored and reference wetlands, differences appeared to have sub-lethal rather than lethal effects on resident amphibian populations. There were few differences in amphibian species richness and no difference in estimated survival probabilities between wetland types. Restored wetlands had more nitrate and alkaline pH, longer hydroperiods, and were deeper, whereas reference wetlands had more amphibian chytrid fungus zoospores in water samples and resident amphibians exhibited increased developmental stress. Restored and reference wetlands are both important components of the landscape in central Iowa and maintaining a complex of fish-free wetlands with a variety of hydroperiods will likely contribute to the persistence of amphibians in this landscape
Duration of fever and serious bacterial infections in children: a systematic review
Background: Parents of febrile children frequently contact primary care. Longer duration of fever has been related to increased risk for serious bacterial infections (SBI). However, the evidence for this association remains controversial. We assessed the predictive value of duration of fever for SBI. Methods: Studies from MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases (from January 1991 to December 2009) were retrieved. We included studies describing children aged 2 months to 6 years in countries with high Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination coverage. Duration of fever had to be studied as a predictor for serious bacterial infections. Results: Seven studies assessed the association between duration of fever and serious bacterial infections; three of these found a relationship. Conclusion: The predictive value of duration of fever for identifying serious bacterial infections in children remains inconclusive. None of these seven studies was performed in primary care. Studies evaluating the duration of fever and its predictive value in children in primary care are required
A search for the decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l
We present a search for the lepton flavor violating decay modes B+/- to h+/-
tau l (h= K,pi; l= e,mu) using the BaBar data sample, which corresponds to 472
million BBbar pairs. The search uses events where one B meson is fully
reconstructed in one of several hadronic final states. Using the momenta of the
reconstructed B, h, and l candidates, we are able to fully determine the tau
four-momentum. The resulting tau candidate mass is our main discriminant
against combinatorial background. We see no evidence for B+/- to h+/- tau l
decays and set a 90% confidence level upper limit on each branching fraction at
the level of a few times 10^-5.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.
Evidence for an excess of B -> D(*) Tau Nu decays
Based on the full BaBar data sample, we report improved measurements of the
ratios R(D(*)) = B(B -> D(*) Tau Nu)/B(B -> D(*) l Nu), where l is either e or
mu. These ratios are sensitive to new physics contributions in the form of a
charged Higgs boson. We measure R(D) = 0.440 +- 0.058 +- 0.042 and R(D*) =
0.332 +- 0.024 +- 0.018, which exceed the Standard Model expectations by 2.0
sigma and 2.7 sigma, respectively. Taken together, our results disagree with
these expectations at the 3.4 sigma level. This excess cannot be explained by a
charged Higgs boson in the type II two-Higgs-doublet model. We also report the
observation of the decay B -> D Tau Nu, with a significance of 6.8 sigma.Comment: Expanded section on systematics, text corrections, improved the
format of Figure 2 and included the effect of the change of the Tau
polarization due to the charged Higg
Search for the decay modes D^0 â e^+e^-, D^0 â ÎŒ^+ÎŒ^-, and D^0 â e^±Όâ
We present searches for the rare decay modes D^0âe^+e^-, D^0âÎŒ^+ÎŒ^-, and D^0âe^±Ό^â in continuum e^+e^-âcc events recorded by the BABAR detector in a data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 468ââfb^(-1). These decays are highly GlashowâIliopoulosâMaiani suppressed but may be enhanced in several extensions of the standard model. Our observed event yields are consistent with the expected backgrounds. An excess is seen in the D^0âÎŒ^+ÎŒ^- channel, although the observed yield is consistent with an upward background fluctuation at the 5% level. Using the FeldmanâCousins method, we set the following 90% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions: B(D^0âe^+e^-)<1.7Ă10^(-7), B(D^0âÎŒ^+ÎŒ^-) within [0.6,8.1]Ă10^(-7), and B(D^0âe^±Ό^â)<3.3Ă10^(-7)
- âŠ