Response of lightning NOx emissions and ozone production to climate change: Insights from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project

Results from an ensemble of models are used to investigate the response of lightning nitrogen oxide emissions to climate change and the consequent impacts on ozone production. Most models generate lightning using a parameterization based on cloud top height. With this approach and a present-day global emission of 5 TgN, we estimate a linear response with respect to changes in global surface temperature of +0.44 ± 0.05 TgN K−1. However, two models using alternative approaches give +0.14 and −0.55 TgN K−1 suggesting that the simulated response is highly dependent on lightning parameterization. Lightning NOx is found to have an ozone production efficiency of 6.5 ± 4.7 times that of surface NOx sources. This wide range of efficiencies across models is partly due to the assumed vertical distribution of the lightning source and partly to the treatment of nonmethane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) chemistry. Careful consideration of the vertical distribution of emissions is needed, given its large influence on ozone production

The impact of biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning volatile organic compound emissions on regional and seasonal variations in secondary organic aerosol

The global secondary organic aerosol (SOA) budget is highly uncertain, with global annual SOA production rates, estimated from global models, ranging over an order of magnitude and simulated SOA concentrations underestimated compared to observations. In this study, we use a global composition-climate model (UKCA) with interactive chemistry and aerosol microphysics to provide an in-depth analysis of the impact of each VOC source on the global SOA budget and its seasonality. We further quantify the role of each source on SOA spatial distributions, and evaluate simulated seasonal SOA concentrations against a comprehensive set of observations. The annual global SOA production rates from monoterpene, isoprene, biomass burning, and anthropogenic precursor sources is 19.9, 19.6, 9.5, and 24.6Tg (SOA) a⁻¹, respectively. When all sources are included, the SOA production rate from all sources is 73.6Tg (SOA) a⁻¹, which lies within the range of estimates from previous modelling studies. SOA production rates and SOA burdens from biogenic and biomass burning SOA sources peak during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer. In contrast, the anthropogenic SOA production rate is fairly constant all year round. However, the global anthropogenic SOA burden does have a seasonal cycle which is lowest during NH summer, which is probably due to enhanced wet removal. Inclusion of the new SOA sources also accelerates the ageing by condensation of primary organic aerosol (POA), making it more hydrophilic, leading to a reduction in the POA lifetime. With monoterpene as the only source of SOA, simulated SOA and total organic aerosol (OA) concentrations are underestimated by the model when compared to surface and aircraft measurements. Model agreement with observations improves with all new sources added, primarily due to the inclusion of the anthropogenic source of SOA, although a negative bias remains. A further sensitivity simulation was performed with an increased anthropogenic SOA reaction yield, corresponding to an annual global SOA production rate of 70.0Tg (SOA) a⁻¹. Whilst simulated SOA concentrations improved relative to observations, they were still underestimated in urban environments and overestimated further downwind and in remote environments. In contrast, the inclusion of SOA from isoprene and biomass burning did not improve model–observations biases substantially except at one out of two tropical locations. However, these findings may reflect the very limited availability of observations to evaluate the model, which are primarily located in the NH mid-latitudes where anthropogenic emissions are high. Our results highlight that, within the current uncertainty limits in SOA sources and reaction yields, over the NH mid-latitudes, a large anthropogenic SOA source results in good agreement with observations. However, more observations are needed to establish the importance of biomass burning and biogenic sources of SOA in model agreement with observations

Melanoma incidence and mortality in Scotland 1979–2003

We studied 12 450 cases of invasive melanoma diagnosed in Scotland in 1979–2003, by thickness, pathological type, and body site at ages under 40, 40–59, and 60 years and over. Melanoma incidence trebled in males from 3.57 to 10.93/105 per year, and increased 2.3-fold in females from 5.60 to 12.96/105 per year. The rate of increase fell in each successive 5-year period. The greatest increase was in males aged 60 years and over at diagnosis. Significant incidence increases were seen in melanomas <1 mm in all three age groups, but those >4 mm only increased significantly at ages 60 years and over. All histological types increased significantly at ages 60 years and over, and in this age group the greatest increase was seen on the head and neck. Five-year disease-free survival improved steadily. Survival figures for 1994–1998 ranged from 93.6% for males and 95.8% for females with tumours <1 mm, to 52.4 and 48.3%, respectively, for those with tumours >4 mm. Over the 25 years, melanoma mortality doubled in males from 1.1 to 2.4/105 per year, but was unchanged in females at 1.5/105 per year. Public education on melanoma is required both for primary prevention and earlier diagnosis, particularly for older males

Myocardial infarction, ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction and modelled daily pollution concentrations; a case-crossover analysis of MINAP data

Objectives: To investigate associations between daily concentrations of air pollution and myocardial infarction (MI), ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Methods: Modelled daily ground-level gaseous, total and speciated particulate pollutant concentrations and ground-level daily mean temperature, all at 5 km x 5 km horizontal resolution, were linked to 202,550 STEMI and 322,198 NSTEMI events recorded on the England and Wales Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database. The study period was 2003-2010. A case-crossover design was used, stratified by year, month, and day of the week. Data were analysed using conditional logistic regression, with pollutants modelled as unconstrained distributed lags 0-2 days. Results are presented as percentage change in risk per 10 µg/m3 increase in the pollutant relevant metric, having adjusted for daily mean temperature, public holidays, weekly flu consultation rates, and a sine-cosine annual cycle. Results: There was no evidence of an association between MI or STEMI and any of O3, NO2, PM2.5, PM10 or selected PM2.5 components (sulphate and elemental carbon). For NSTEMI there was a positive association with daily maximum 1-hour NO2 (0.27% (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.54)), which persisted following adjustment for O3 and adjustment for PM2.5. The association appeared to be confined to the midland and southern regions of England and Wales. Conclusions: The study found no evidence of an association between the modelled pollutants (including components) investigated and STEMI but did find some evidence of a positive association between NO2 and NSTEMI. Confirmation of this association in other studies is required

Altered serological and cellular reactivity to H-2 antigens after target cell infection with vaccinia virus

MICE generate cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) which are able to lyse virus infected target cells in vitro after infection with lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and pox-viruses1−3. CTL kill syngeneic and semiallogenic infected cells but not allogenic infected targets. Target cell lysis in these systems seems to be restricted by H-2 antigens, especially by the K or D end of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). In experiments where virus specific sensitised lymphocytes kill virus infected allogenic target cells4 the effector lymphocytes have not been characterised exactly. Recent investigations suggest that the active cell in this assay, at least in the measles infection, is a non-thymus derived cell (H. Kreth, personal communication). An H-2 restriction of cell mediated cytolysis (CMC) to trinitrophenol (TNP)-modified lymphocytes has also been described5. Zinkernagel and Doherty6 postulated that the CTL is directed against syngeneic H-2 antigens and viral antigens and they suggested an alteration of H-2 induced by the LCMV infection. Earlier7 we found a close topological relationship between H-2 antigens and the target antigen(s) responsible for CMC in the vaccinia system. Here we report experiments which were carried out to prove alteration of H-2 after infection of L-929 fibroblasts with vaccinia virus

Spatiotemporal evaluation of EMEP4UK-WRF v4.3 atmospheric chemistry transport simulations of health-related metrics for NO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5 for 2001-2010

This study was motivated by the use in air pollution epidemiology and health burden assessment of data simulated at 5 km  ×  5 km horizontal resolution by the EMEP4UK-WRF v4.3 atmospheric chemistry transport model. Thus the focus of the model–measurement comparison statistics presented here was on the health-relevant metrics of annual and daily means of NO2, O3, PM2. 5, and PM10 (daily maximum 8 h running mean for O3). The comparison was temporally and spatially comprehensive, covering a 10-year period (2 years for PM2. 5) and all non-roadside measurement data from the UK national reference monitor network, which applies consistent operational and QA/QC procedures for each pollutant (44, 47, 24, and 30 sites for NO2, O3, PM2. 5, and PM10, respectively). Two important statistics highlighted in the literature for evaluation of air quality model output against policy (and hence health)-relevant standards – correlation and bias – together with root mean square error, were evaluated by site type, year, month, and day-of-week. Model–measurement statistics were generally better than, or comparable to, values that allow for realistic magnitudes of measurement uncertainties. Temporal correlations of daily concentrations were good for O3, NO2, and PM2. 5 at both rural and urban background sites (median values of r across sites in the range 0.70–0.76 for O3 and NO2, and 0.65–0.69 for PM2. 5), but poorer for PM10 (0.47–0.50). Bias differed between environments, with generally less bias at rural background sites (median normalized mean bias (NMB) values for daily O3 and NO2 of 8 and 11 %, respectively). At urban background sites there was a negative model bias for NO2 (median NMB  =  −29 %) and PM2. 5 (−26 %) and a positive model bias for O3 (26 %). The directions of these biases are consistent with expectations of the effects of averaging primary emissions across the 5 km  ×  5 km model grid in urban areas, compared with monitor locations that are more influenced by these emissions (e.g. closer to traffic sources) than the grid average. The biases are also indicative of potential underestimations of primary NOx and PM emissions in the model, and, for PM, with known omissions in the model of some PM components, e.g. some components of wind-blown dust. There were instances of monthly and weekday/weekend variations in the extent of model–measurement bias. Overall, the greater uniformity in temporal correlation than in bias is strongly indicative that the main driver of model–measurement differences (aside from grid versus monitor spatial representivity) was inaccuracy of model emissions – both in annual totals and in the monthly and day-of-week temporal factors applied in the model to the totals – rather than simulation of atmospheric chemistry and transport processes. Since, in general for epidemiology, capturing correlation is more important than bias, the detailed analyses presented here support the use of data from this model framework in air pollution epidemiology

Interventions to Promote Cancer Awareness and Early Presentation: Systematic Review

Low cancer awareness contributes to delay in presentation for cancer symptoms and may lead to delay in cancer diagnosis. The aim of this study was to review the evidence for the effectiveness of interventions to raise cancer awareness and promote early presentation in cancer to inform policy and future research. We searched bibliographic databases and reference lists for randomised controlled trials of interventions delivered to individuals, and controlled or uncontrolled studies of interventions delivered to communities. We found some evidence that interventions delivered to individuals modestly increase cancer awareness in the short term and insufficient evidence that they promote early presentation. We found limited evidence that public education campaigns reduce stage at presentation of breast cancer, malignant melanoma and retinoblastoma

Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble

We examine past and future changes in both winter haze and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and elucidate the influence of model physical parameterizations on these future projections for the first time. We use a large-scale meteorology-based haze weather index (HWI) with values > 1 as a proxy for haze-conducive weather and HWI 1) is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather (HWI 1) during winter over the NCP is found to be associated with an enhanced warming of the troposphere and weaker northwesterlies in the mid-troposphere over the NCP. We also examined the changes in the interannual variability of the haze-conducive and clear weather and found no marked changes in the variability during future periods. We find a clear influence of model physical parametrizations on climatological mean frequencies for both haze-conducive and clear weather. For the mid- to late 21st century (2033–2086), the parametric effect can explain up to ∼ 80 % of the variance in the climatological mean frequencies of PPE members. This shows that different model physical parameterizations lead to a different evolution of the model’s mean climate, particularly towards the end of the 21st century. Therefore, it is desirable to consider the PPE in addition to the initialized and multimodel ensembles to obtain a more comprehensive range of plausible future projections

Comparing the immune response to a novel intranasal nanoparticle PLGA vaccine and a commercial BPI3V vaccine in dairy calves

peer-reviewedBackground There is a need to improve vaccination against respiratory pathogens in calves by stimulation of local immunity at the site of pathogen entry at an early stage in life. Ideally such a vaccine preparation would not be inhibited by the maternally derived antibodies. Additionally, localized immune response at the site of infection is also crucial to control infection at the site of entry of virus. The present study investigated the response to an intranasal bovine parainfluenza 3 virus (BPI3V) antigen preparation encapsulated in PLGA (poly dl-lactic-co-glycolide) nanoparticles in the presence of pre-existing anti-BPI3V antibodies in young calves and comparing it to a commercially available BPI3V respiratory vaccine. Results There was a significant (P < 0.05) increase in BPI3V-specific IgA in the nasal mucus of the BPI3V nanoparticle vaccine group alone. Following administration of the nanoparticle vaccine an early immune response was induced that continued to grow until the end of study and was not observed in the other treatment groups. Virus specific serum IgG response to both the nanoparticle vaccine and commercial live attenuated vaccine showed a significant (P < 0.05) rise over the period of study. However, the cell mediated immune response observed didn’t show any significant rise in any of the treatment groups. Conclusion Calves administered the intranasal nanoparticle vaccine induced significantly greater mucosal IgA responses, compared to the other treatment groups. This suggests an enhanced, sustained mucosal-based immunological response to the BPI3V nanoparticle vaccine in the face of pre-existing antibodies to BPI3V, which are encouraging and potentially useful characteristics of a candidate vaccine. However, ability of nanoparticle vaccine in eliciting cell mediated immune response needs further investigation. More sustained local mucosal immunity induced by nanoparticle vaccine has obvious potential if it translates into enhanced protective immunity in the face of virus outbreak