Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Dose-Dependent Onset of Regenerative Program in Neutron Irradiated Mouse Skin

Background: Tissue response to irradiation is not easily recapitulated by cell culture studies. The objective of this investigation was to characterize, the transcriptional response and the onset of regenerative processes in mouse skin irradiated with different doses of fast neutrons. Methodology/Principal Findings: To monitor general response to irradiation and individual animal to animal variation, we performed gene and protein expression analysis with both pooled and individual mouse samples. A high-throughput gene expression analysis, by DNA oligonucleotide microarray was done with three months old C57Bl/6 mice irradiated with 0.2 and 1 Gy of mono-energetic 14 MeV neutron compared to sham irradiated controls. The results on 440 irradiation modulated genes, partially validated by quantitative real time RT-PCR, showed a dose-dependent up-regulation of a subclass of keratin and keratin associated proteins, and members of the S100 family of Ca2+-binding proteins. Immunohistochemistry confirmed mRNA expression data enabled mapping of protein expression. Interestingly, proteins up-regulated in thickening epidermis: keratin 6 and S100A8 showed the most significant up-regulation and the least mouse-to-mouse variation following 0.2 Gy irradiation, in a concerted effort toward skin tissue regeneration. Conversely, mice irradiated at 1 Gy showed most evidence of apoptosis (Caspase-3 and TUNEL staining) and most 8-oxo-G accumulation at 24 h post-irradiation. Moreover, no cell proliferation accompanied 1 Gy exposure as shown by Ki67 immunohistochemistry. Conclusions/Significance: The dose-dependent differential gene expression at the tissue level following in vivo exposure to neutron radiation is reminiscent of the onset of re-epithelialization and wound healing and depends on the proportion of cells carrying multiple chromosomal lesions in the entire tissue. Thus, this study presents in vivo evidence of a skin regenerative program exerted independently from DNA repair-associated pathways

Transient Reversal of Episome Silencing Precedes VP16-Dependent Transcription during Reactivation of Latent HSV-1 in Neurons

Herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1) establishes latency in peripheral neurons, creating a permanent source of recurrent infections. The latent genome is assembled into chromatin and lytic cycle genes are silenced. Processes that orchestrate reentry into productive replication (reactivation) remain poorly understood. We have used latently infected cultures of primary superior cervical ganglion (SCG) sympathetic neurons to profile viral gene expression following a defined reactivation stimulus. Lytic genes are transcribed in two distinct phases, differing in their reliance on protein synthesis, viral DNA replication and the essential initiator protein VP16. The first phase does not require viral proteins and has the appearance of a transient, widespread de-repression of the previously silent lytic genes. This allows synthesis of viral regulatory proteins including VP16, which accumulate in the cytoplasm of the host neuron. During the second phase, VP16 and its cellular cofactor HCF-1, which is also predominantly cytoplasmic, concentrate in the nucleus where they assemble an activator complex on viral promoters. The transactivation function supplied by VP16 promotes increased viral lytic gene transcription leading to the onset of genome amplification and the production of infectious viral particles. Thus regulated localization of de novo synthesized VP16 is likely to be a critical determinant of HSV-1 reactivation in sympathetic neurons

Factors associated with diversity, quantity and zoonotic potential of ectoparasites on urban mice and voles

Wild rodents are important hosts for tick larvae but co-infestations with other mites and insects are largely neglected. Small rodents were trapped at four study sites in Berlin, Germany, to quantify their ectoparasite diversity. Host-specific, spatial and temporal occurrence of ectoparasites was determined to assess their influence on direct and indirect zoonotic risk due to mice and voles in an urban agglomeration. Rodent-associated arthropods were diverse, including 63 species observed on six host species with an overall prevalence of 99%. The tick Ixodes ricinus was the most prevalent species, found on 56% of the rodents. The trapping location clearly affected the presence of different rodent species and, therefore, the occurrence of particular host-specific parasites. In Berlin, fewer temporary and periodic parasite species as well as non-parasitic species (fleas, chiggers and nidicolous Gamasina) were detected than reported from rural areas. In addition, abundance of parasites with low host-specificity (ticks, fleas and chiggers) apparently decreased with increasing landscape fragmentation associated with a gradient of urbanisation. In contrast, stationary ectoparasites, closely adapted to the rodent host, such as the fur mites Myobiidae and Listrophoridae, were most abundant at the two urban sites. A direct zoonotic risk of infection for people may only be posed by Nosopsyllus fasciatus fleas, which were prevalent even in the city centre. More importantly, peridomestic rodents clearly supported the life cycle of ticks in the city as hosts for their subadult stages. In addition to trapping location, season, host species, body condition and host sex, infestation with fleas, gamasid Laelapidae mites and prostigmatic Myobiidae mites were associated with significantly altered abundance of I. ricinus larvae on mice and voles. Whether this is caused by predation, grooming behaviour or interaction with the host immune system is unclear. The present study constitutes a basis to identify interactions and vector function of rodent-associated arthropods and their potential impact on zoonotic diseases

Effect of Audiovisual Training on Monaural Spatial Hearing in Horizontal Plane

The article aims to test the hypothesis that audiovisual integration can improve spatial hearing in monaural conditions when interaural difference cues are not available. We trained one group of subjects with an audiovisual task, where a flash was presented in parallel with the sound and another group in an auditory task, where only sound from different spatial locations was presented. To check whether the observed audiovisual effect was similar to feedback, the third group was trained using the visual feedback paradigm. Training sessions were administered once per day, for 5 days. The performance level in each group was compared for auditory only stimulation on the first and the last day of practice. Improvement after audiovisual training was several times higher than after auditory practice. The group trained with visual feedback demonstrated a different effect of training with the improvement smaller than the group with audiovisual training. We conclude that cross-modal facilitation is highly important to improve spatial hearing in monaural conditions and may be applied to the rehabilitation of patients with unilateral deafness and after unilateral cochlear implantation

Entry of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 (HSV-1) into the Distal Axons of Trigeminal Neurons Favors the Onset of Nonproductive, Silent Infection

Following productive, lytic infection in epithelia, herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) establishes a lifelong latent infection in sensory neurons that is interrupted by episodes of reactivation. In order to better understand what triggers this lytic/latent decision in neurons, we set up an organotypic model based on chicken embryonic trigeminal ganglia explants (TGEs) in a double chamber system. Adding HSV-1 to the ganglion compartment (GC) resulted in a productive infection in the explants. By contrast, selective application of the virus to distal axons led to a largely nonproductive infection that was characterized by the poor expression of lytic genes and the presence of high levels of the 2.0-kb major latency-associated transcript (LAT) RNA. Treatment of the explants with the immediate-early (IE) gene transcriptional inducer hexamethylene bisacetamide, and simultaneous co-infection of the GC with HSV-1, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) or pseudorabies virus (PrV) helper virus significantly enhanced the ability of HSV-1 to productively infect sensory neurons upon axonal entry. Helper-virus-induced transactivation of HSV-1 IE gene expression in axonally-infected TGEs in the absence of de novo protein synthesis was dependent on the presence of functional tegument protein VP16 in HSV-1 helper virus particles. After the establishment of a LAT-positive silent infection in TGEs, HSV-1 was refractory to transactivation by superinfection of the GC with HSV-1 but not with HSV-2 and PrV helper virus. In conclusion, the site of entry appears to be a critical determinant in the lytic/latent decision in sensory neurons. HSV-1 entry into distal axons results in an insufficient transactivation of IE gene expression and favors the establishment of a nonproductive, silent infection in trigeminal neurons

Dopamine, affordance and active inference.

The role of dopamine in behaviour and decision-making is often cast in terms of reinforcement learning and optimal decision theory. Here, we present an alternative view that frames the physiology of dopamine in terms of Bayes-optimal behaviour. In this account, dopamine controls the precision or salience of (external or internal) cues that engender action. In other words, dopamine balances bottom-up sensory information and top-down prior beliefs when making hierarchical inferences (predictions) about cues that have affordance. In this paper, we focus on the consequences of changing tonic levels of dopamine firing using simulations of cued sequential movements. Crucially, the predictions driving movements are based upon a hierarchical generative model that infers the context in which movements are made. This means that we can confuse agents by changing the context (order) in which cues are presented. These simulations provide a (Bayes-optimal) model of contextual uncertainty and set switching that can be quantified in terms of behavioural and electrophysiological responses. Furthermore, one can simulate dopaminergic lesions (by changing the precision of prediction errors) to produce pathological behaviours that are reminiscent of those seen in neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease. We use these simulations to demonstrate how a single functional role for dopamine at the synaptic level can manifest in different ways at the behavioural level

Atrophy of primary lymphoid organs induced by Marek's disease virus during early infection is associated with increased apoptosis, inhibition of cell proliferation and a severe B-lymphopenia

Marek's disease is a multi-faceted highly contagious disease affecting chickens caused by the Marek's disease alphaherpesvirus (MDV). MDV early infection induces a transient immunosuppression, which is associated with thymus and bursa of Fabricius atrophy. Little is known about the cellular processes involved in primary lymphoid organ atrophy. Here, by in situ TUNEL assay, we demonstrate that MDV infection results in a high level of apoptosis in the thymus and bursa of Fabricius, which is concomitant to the MDV lytic cycle. Interestingly, we observed that in the thymus most of the MDV infected cells at 6 days post-infection (dpi) were apoptotic, whereas in the bursa of Fabricius most of the apoptotic cells were uninfected suggesting that MDV triggers apoptosis by two different modes in these two primary lymphoid organs. In addition, a high decrease of cell proliferation was observed from 6 to 14 dpi in the bursa of Fabricius follicles, and not in the thymus. Finally, with an adapted absolute blood lymphocyte count, we demonstrate a major B-lymphopenia during the two 1st weeks of infection, and propose this method as a potent non-invasive tool to diagnose MDV bursa of Fabricius infection and atrophy. Our results demonstrate that the thymus and bursa of Fabricius atrophies are related to different cell mechanisms, with different temporalities, that affect infected and uninfected cells