Likelihood inference for exponential-trawl processes

Integer-valued trawl processes are a class of serially correlated, stationary and infinitely divisible processes that Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen has been working on in recent years. In this Chapter, we provide the first analysis of likelihood inference for trawl processes by focusing on the so-called exponential-trawl process, which is also a continuous time hidden Markov process with countable state space. The core ideas include prediction decomposition, filtering and smoothing, complete-data analysis and EM algorithm. These can be easily scaled up to adapt to more general trawl processes but with increasing computation efforts.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figures, forthcoming in: "A Fascinating Journey through Probability, Statistics and Applications: In Honour of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen's 80th Birthday", Springer, New Yor

Allelic based gene-gene interactions in rheumatoid arthritis

The detection of gene-gene interaction is an important approach to understand the etiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The goal of this study is to identify gene-gene interaction of SNPs at the allelic level contributing to RA using real data sets (Problem 1) of North American Rheumatoid Arthritis Consortium (NARAC) provided by Genetic Analysis Workshop 16 (GAW16). We applied our novel method that can detect the interaction by a definition of nonrandom association of alleles that occurs when the contribution to RA of a particular allele inherited in one gene depends on a particular allele inherited at other unlinked genes. Starting with 639 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 candidate genes, we identified ten two-way interacting genes and one case of three-way interacting genes. SNP rs2476601 on PTPN22 interacts with rs2306772 on SLC22A4, which interacts with rs881372 on TRAF1 and rs2900180 on C5, respectively. SNP rs2900180 on C5 interacts with rs2242720 on RUNX1, which interacts with rs881375 on TRAF1. Furthermore, rs2476601 on PTPN22 also interacts with three SNPs (rs2905325, rs1476482, and rs2106549) in linkage disequilibrium (LD) on IL6. The other three SNPs (rs2961280, rs2961283, and rs2905308) in LD on IL6 interact with two SNPs (rs477515 and rs2516049) on HLA-DRB1. SNPs rs660895 and rs532098 on HLA-DRB1 interact with rs2834779 and four SNPs in LD on RUNX1. Three-way interacting genes of rs10229203 on IL6, rs4816502 on RUNX1, and rs10818500 on C5 were also detected

ABCD Neurocognitive Prediction Challenge 2019: Predicting individual residual fluid intelligence scores from cortical grey matter morphology

We predicted residual fluid intelligence scores from T1-weighted MRI data available as part of the ABCD NP Challenge 2019, using morphological similarity of grey-matter regions across the cortex. Individual structural covariance networks (SCN) were abstracted into graph-theory metrics averaged over nodes across the brain and in data-driven communities/modules. Metrics included degree, path length, clustering coefficient, centrality, rich club coefficient, and small-worldness. These features derived from the training set were used to build various regression models for predicting residual fluid intelligence scores, with performance evaluated both using cross-validation within the training set and using the held-out validation set. Our predictions on the test set were generated with a support vector regression model trained on the training set. We found minimal improvement over predicting a zero residual fluid intelligence score across the sample population, implying that structural covariance networks calculated from T1-weighted MR imaging data provide little information about residual fluid intelligence.Comment: 8 pages plus references, 3 figures, 2 tables. Submission to the ABCD Neurocognitive Prediction Challenge at MICCAI 201

Secondary Prevention of Colorectal Cancer: Is There an Optimal Follow-up for Patients with Colorectal Cancer?

Secondary prevention of colorectal cancer, as opposed to primary prevention, indicates that a person has already had the disease and there are steps being taken to prevent cancer recurrence, usually as metachronous tumors. This generally involves annual surveillance with colonoscopy after surgical removal of the initial cancer if some aspect of the colon remains. However, some familial cases may involve other modalities, such as cyclooxygenase inhibitors, as an adjunct after the initial operation. Genetic testing in suspected familial cases may identify candidates for secondary prevention. The timing for secondary prevention is critical to prevent recurrent advanced disease, which is detrimental to patient survival. Recommendations are often empiric, but some cases are based on the biological behavior of the tumor. Close follow-up with a competent health care provider, such as a gastroenterologist, is necessary to help prevent recurrence

Why do patients want to have their blood tested? A qualitative study of patient expectations in general practice

BACKGROUND: General practitioners often take their impression of patients' expectations into account in their decision to have blood tests done. It is commonly recommended to involve patients in decision-making during consultations. The study aimed to obtain detailed information on patients' expectations about blood tests. METHODS: Qualitative study among patients in waiting rooms of general practices. Each patient was presented with a short questionnaire about their preferences in terms of diagnostics. Patients who would like blood tests to be done were interviewed. RESULTS: Fifty-seven (26%) of the 224 respondents wanted blood tests. Twenty-two were interviewed. Patients overestimated the qualities of blood tests. Favourable test results were regarded as proof of good health. Patients regarded blood tests as a useful instrument to screen for serious disorders, and were confirmed in this belief by people in their social environment and by the media. Many patients expected their GP to take an active test ordering approach, though some indicated that they might be convinced if their GP proposed a wait-and-see policy. CONCLUSIONS: GPs' perceptions about patient expectations seem justified: patients appear to have high hopes for testing as a diagnostic tool. They expect diagnostic certainty without mistakes and a proof of good health. The question is whether it would be desirable to remove patients' misconceptions, allowing them to participate in policy decisions on the basis of sound information, or whether it would be better to leave the misconceptions uncontested, in order to retain the 'magic' of additional tests and reassure patients. We expect that clarifying the precise nature of patients' expectations by the GP may be helpful in creating a diagnostic strategy that satisfies both patients and GPs. GPs will have to balance the benefits of reassuring their patients by means of blood tests which may be unnecessary against the benefits of avoiding unnecessary tests. Further research is needed into the effects of different types of patient information and the effects of testing on satisfaction and anxiety

The holistic phase model of early adult crisis

The objective of the current study was to explore the structural, temporal and experiential manifestations of crisis episodes in early adulthood, using a holistic-systemic theoretical framework. Based on an analysis of 50 interviews with individuals about a crisis episode between the ages of 25 and 35, a holistic model was developed. The model comprises four phases: (1) Locked-in, (2) Separation/Time-out, (3) Exploration and (4) Rebuilding, which in turn have characteristic features at four levels—person-in-environment, identity, motivation and affect-cognition. A crisis starts out with a commitment at work or home that has been made but is no longer desired, and this is followed by an emotionally volatile period of change as that commitment is terminated. The positive trajectory of crisis involves movement through an exploratory period towards active rebuilding of a new commitment, but ‘fast-forward’ and ‘relapse’ loops can interrupt Phases 3 and 4 and make a positive resolution of the episode less likely. The model shows conceptual links with life stage theories of emerging adulthood and early adulthood, and it extends current understandings of the transitional developmental challenges that young adults encounter

Distinguishing Asthma Phenotypes Using Machine Learning Approaches.

Asthma is not a single disease, but an umbrella term for a number of distinct diseases, each of which are caused by a distinct underlying pathophysiological mechanism. These discrete disease entities are often labelled as asthma endotypes. The discovery of different asthma subtypes has moved from subjective approaches in which putative phenotypes are assigned by experts to data-driven ones which incorporate machine learning. This review focuses on the methodological developments of one such machine learning technique-latent class analysis-and how it has contributed to distinguishing asthma and wheezing subtypes in childhood. It also gives a clinical perspective, presenting the findings of studies from the past 5 years that used this approach. The identification of true asthma endotypes may be a crucial step towards understanding their distinct pathophysiological mechanisms, which could ultimately lead to more precise prevention strategies, identification of novel therapeutic targets and the development of effective personalized therapies

The association between histamine 2 receptor antagonist use and Clostridium difficile infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a major health problem. Epidemiological evidence suggests that there is an association between acid suppression therapy and development of CDI. Purpose We sought to systematically review the literature that examined the association between histamine 2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) and CDI. Data source We searched Medline, Current Contents, Embase, ISI Web of Science and Elsevier Scopus from 1990 to 2012 for all analytical studies that examined the association between H2RAs and CDI. Study selection Two authors independently reviewed the studies for eligibility. Data extraction Data about studies characteristics, adjusted effect estimates and quality were extracted. Data synthesis Thirty-five observations from 33 eligible studies that included 201834 participants were analyzed. Studies were performed in 6 countries and nine of them were multicenter. Most studies did not specify the type or duration of H2RAs therapy. The pooled effect estimate was 1.44, 95% CI (1.22–1.7), I2 = 70.5%. This association was consistent across different subgroups (by study design and country) and there was no evidence of publication bias. The pooled effect estimate for high quality studies was 1.39 (1.15–1.68), I2 = 72.3%. Meta-regression analysis of 10 study-level variables did not identify sources of heterogeneity. In a speculative analysis, the number needed to harm (NNH) with H2RAs at 14 days after hospital admission in patients receiving antibiotics or not was 58, 95% CI (37, 115) and 425, 95% CI (267, 848), respectively. For the general population, the NNH at 1 year was 4549, 95% CI (2860, 9097). Conclusion In this rigorous systematic review and meta-analysis, we observed an association between H2RAs and CDI. The absolute risk of CDI associated with H2RAs is highest in hospitalized patients receiving antibiotics

The RING-CH ligase K5 antagonizes restriction of KSHV and HIV-1 particle release by mediating ubiquitin-dependent endosomal degradation of tetherin

Tetherin (CD317/BST2) is an interferon-induced membrane protein that inhibits the release of diverse enveloped viral particles. Several mammalian viruses have evolved countermeasures that inactivate tetherin, with the prototype being the HIV-1 Vpu protein. Here we show that the human herpesvirus Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is sensitive to tetherin restriction and its activity is counteracted by the KSHV encoded RING-CH E3 ubiquitin ligase K5. Tetherin expression in KSHV-infected cells inhibits viral particle release, as does depletion of K5 protein using RNA interference. K5 induces a species-specific downregulation of human tetherin from the cell surface followed by its endosomal degradation. We show that K5 targets a single lysine (K18) in the cytoplasmic tail of tetherin for ubiquitination, leading to relocalization of tetherin to CD63-positive endosomal compartments. Tetherin degradation is dependent on ESCRT-mediated endosomal sorting, but does not require a tyrosine-based sorting signal in the tetherin cytoplasmic tail. Importantly, we also show that the ability of K5 to substitute for Vpu in HIV-1 release is entirely dependent on K18 and the RING-CH domain of K5. By contrast, while Vpu induces ubiquitination of tetherin cytoplasmic tail lysine residues, mutation of these positions has no effect on its antagonism of tetherin function, and residual tetherin is associated with the trans-Golgi network (TGN) in Vpu-expressing cells. Taken together our results demonstrate that K5 is a mechanistically distinct viral countermeasure to tetherin-mediated restriction, and that herpesvirus particle release is sensitive to this mode of antiviral inhibition

Effect of personal exposure to black carbon on changes in allergic asthma gene methylation measured 5 days later in urban children: importance of allergic sensitization

Background Asthma gene DNA methylation may underlie the effects of air pollution on airway inflammation. However, the temporality and individual susceptibility to environmental epigenetic regulation of asthma has not been fully elucidated. Our objective was to determine the timeline of black carbon (BC) exposure, measured by personal sampling, on DNA methylation of allergic asthma genes 5 days later to capture usual weather variations and differences related to changes in behavior and activities. We also sought to determine how methylation may vary by seroatopy and cockroach sensitization and by elevated fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO). Methods Personal BC levels were measured during two 24-h periods over a 6-day sampling period in 163 New York City children (age 9–14 years), repeated 6 months later. During home visits, buccal cells were collected as noninvasive surrogates for lower airway epithelial cells and FeNO measured as an indicator of airway inflammation. CpG promoter loci of allergic asthma genes (e.g., interleukin 4 (IL4), interferon gamma (IFNγ), inducible nitric oxide synthase (NOS2A)), arginase 2 (ARG2)) were pyrosequenced at the start and end of each sampling period. Results Higher levels of BC were associated with lower methylation of IL4 promoter CpG−48 5 days later. The magnitude of association between BC exposure and demethylation of IL4 CpG−48 and NOS2A CpG+5099 measured 5 days later appeared to be greater among seroatopic children, especially those sensitized to cockroach allergens (RR [95% CI] 0.55 [0.37–0.82] and 0.67 [0.45–0.98] for IL4 CpG−48 and NOS2A CpG+5099, respectively), compared to non-sensitized children (RR [95% CI] 0.87 [0.65–1.17] and 0.95 [0.69–1.33] for IL4 CpG−48 and NOS2A CpG+5099, respectively); however, the difference was not statistically different. In multivariable linear regression models, lower DNA methylation of IL4 CpG−48 and NOS2A CpG+5099 were associated with increased FeNO. Conclusions Our results suggest that exposure to BC may exert asthma proinflammatory gene demethylation 5 days later that in turn may link to airway inflammation. Our results further suggest that seroatopic children, especially those sensitized to cockroach allergens, may be more susceptible to the effect of acute BC exposure on epigenetic changes