Asking about social circles improves election predictions

Election outcomes can be difficult to predict. A recent example is the 2016 US presidential election, in which Hillary Clinton lost five states that had been predicted to go for her, and with them the White House. Most election polls ask people about their own voting intentions: whether they will vote and, if so, for which candidate. We show that, compared with own-intention questions, social-circle questions that ask participants about the voting intentions of their social contacts improved predictions of voting in the 2016 US and 2017 French presidential elections. Responses to social-circle questions predicted election outcomes on national, state and individual levels, helped to explain last-minute changes in people’s voting intentions and provided information about the dynamics of echo chambers among supporters of different candidates

Perceived economic self‑sufficiency: a countryand generation‑comparative approach

We thank Michael Camasso and Radha Jagannathan as well as Asimina Christoforou, Gerbert Kraaykamp, Fay Makantasi, Tiziana Nazio, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Jacqueline O’Reilly and Jan van Deth for their contribution to the CUPESSE project (Seventh Framework Programme; Grant Agreement No. 61325). CUPESSE received additional funding from the Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES) and the Field of Focus 4 “Self-Regulation and Regulation: Individuals and Organisations” at Heidelberg University. We further acknowledge helpful comments on this article by two anonymous reviewers. Julian Rossello provided valuable research assistance.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1057/ s4130 4-018-0186-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.Existing datasets provided by statistical agencies (e.g. Eurostat) show that the economic and financial crisis that unfolded in 2008 significantly impacted the lives and livelihoods of young people across Europe. Taking these official statistics as a starting point, the collaborative research project “Cultural Pathways to Economic Self-Sufficiency and Entrepreneurship in Europe” (CUPESSE) generated new survey data on the economic and social situation of young Europeans (18–35 years). The CUPESSE dataset allows for country-comparative assessments of young people’s perceptions about their socio-economic situation. Furthermore, the dataset includes a variety of indicators examining the socio-economic situation of both young adults and their parents. In this data article, we introduce the CUPESSE dataset to political and social scientists in an attempt to spark a debate on the measurements, patterns and mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of economic self-sufficiency as well as its political implications.CUPESSE project (Seventh Framework Programme; Grant Agreement No. 61325

Justice motive effects in ageism: The effects of a victim's age on observer perceptions of injustice and punishment judgments

Drawing on just-world theory and research showing that older persons are generally assigned a devalued status in society, we examined the impact of an innocent victim's age on observer perceptions of injustice and punishment reactions. In three experiments, we demonstrated that observers perceived the suffering of an older (vs. younger) person as less unfair, which, in turn, reduced their willingness to punish the harm doer. In Study 1, participants rated a car accident as less unfair and consequently punished the harm doer less when the victim was older. In Study 2, participants recommended punishing a harm doer less when the victim was older (vs. younger) when the need to believe in a just world was threatened (i.e., only when the victim was innocent). In Study 3, only participants higher in ageism perceived the suffering of an older (vs. younger) victim as less unfair and, consequently, recommended less punishment for the harm doer. © 2012 Elsevier Inc

The National Wellbeing Index in the isiXhosa translation: focus group discussions on how South Africans view the quality of their society

publisher versionThe International Wellbeing Index covers two complementary measures, the Personal Wellbeing Index (PWI) and the National Wellbeing Index (NWI). The focus group study reported here tested the understanding of the NWI when translated into isiXhosa, a language spoken by 6 million South Africans, or 16% of the country’s population. A challenge for the NWI in measuring national well-being is the tendency for meaning to get ‘lost in translation’ in the wording of the instrument, owing to the disparities that exist between levels of living in developed and developing nations. The focussed discussions with native isiXhosa speakers conveyed the different shades of meaning associated with the six domains that make up the NWI. The isiXhosa keywords for the domains of social conditions, the natural environment, national security, and management of the country’s affairs (government) were readily understood, but discussants asked for further clarification of keywords for the domains relating to the economy and business. Conversations showed up the close link between personal and national well-being: discussants drew upon their personal and parochial life experiences along with their knowledge of current affairs to evaluate the nation’s quality of life. They described the social contract between citizens and their government to create a ‘caring society’ that promotes well-being across key domains of national life. Many of the reference standards used to evaluate national well-being were ones postulated to influence personal well-being (Michalos A.C, Social Indicators Research 16(4): 347–413 1985 ). The study also pointed to a potential problem for longitudinal studies if the bipolar satisfaction scale, formerly used to measure the International Wellbeing Index’s PWI and NWI, is changed to a unipolar one. Findings from this pilot study confirm the potential of the NWI as a tool for measuring national well-being cross-culturally