Modelling with non-stratified chain event graphs

© 2019, Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are recent probabilistic graphical modelling tools that have proved successful in modelling scenarios with context-specific independencies. Although the theory underlying CEGs supports appropriate representation of structural zeroes, the literature so far does not provide an adaptation of the vanilla CEG methods for a real-world application presenting structural zeroes also known as the non-stratified CEG class. To illustrate these methods, we present a non-stratified CEG representing a public health intervention designed to reduce the risk and rate of falling in the elderly. We then compare the CEG model to the more conventional Bayesian Network model when applied to this setting

RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials

Assessment of risk of bias is regarded as an essential component of a systematic review on the effects of an intervention. The most commonly used tool for randomised trials is the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. We updated the tool to respond to developments in understanding how bias arises in randomised trials, and to address user feedback on and limitations of the original tool

Enhanced relapse prevention for bipolar disorder – ERP trial. A cluster randomised controlled trial to assess the feasibility of training care coordinators to offer enhanced relapse prevention for bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND: Bipolar Disorder (BD) is a common and severe form of mental illness characterised by repeated relapses of mania or depression. Pharmacotherapy is the main treatment currently offered, but this has only limited effectiveness. A recent Cochrane review has reported that adding psycho-social interventions that train people to recognise and manage the early warning signs of their relapses is effective in increasing time to recurrence, improving social functioning and in reducing hospitalisations. However, the review also highlights the difficulties in offering these interventions within standard mental health services due to the need for highly trained therapists and extensive input of time. There is a need to explore the potential for developing Early Warning Sign (EWS) interventions in ways that will enhance dissemination. METHODS AND DESIGN: This article describes a cluster-randomised trial to assess the feasibility of training care coordinators (CCs) in community mental health teams (CMHTs) to offer Enhanced Relapse Prevention (ERP) to people with Bipolar Disorder. CMHTs in the North West of England are randomised to either receive training in ERP and to offer this to their clients, or to continue to offer treatment as usual (TAU). The main aims of the study are (1) to determine the acceptability of the intervention, training and outcome measures (2) to assess the feasibility of the design as measured by rates of recruitment, retention, attendance and direct feedback from participants (3) to estimate the design effect of clustering for key outcome variables (4) to estimate the effect size of the impact of the intervention on outcome. In this paper we provide a rationale for the study design, briefly outline the ERP intervention, and describe in detail the study protocol. DISCUSSION: This information will be useful to researchers attempting to carry out similar feasibility assessments of clinical effectiveness trials and in particular cluster randomised controlled trials

Molecular dynamics simulations and in silico peptide ligand screening of the Elk-1 ETS domain

Background: The Elk-1 transcription factor is a member of a group of proteins called ternary complex factors, which serve as a paradigm for gene regulation in response to extracellular signals. Its deregulation has been linked to multiple human diseases including the development of tumours. The work herein aims to inform the design of potential peptidomimetic compounds that can inhibit the formation of the Elk-1 dimer, which is key to Elk-1 stability. We have conducted molecular dynamics simulations of the Elk-1 ETS domain followed by virtual screening. Results: We show the ETS dimerisation site undergoes conformational reorganisation at the a1b1 loop. Through exhaustive screening of di- and tri-peptide libraries against a collection of ETS domain conformations representing the dynamics of the loop, we identified a series of potential binders for the Elk-1 dimer interface. The di-peptides showed no particular preference toward the binding site; however, the tri-peptides made specific interactions with residues: Glu17, Gln18 and Arg49 that are pivotal to the dimer interface. Conclusions: We have shown molecular dynamics simulations can be combined with virtual peptide screening to obtain an exhaustive docking protocol that incorporates dynamic fluctuations in a receptor. Based on our findings, we suggest experimental binding studies to be performed on the 12 SILE ranked tri-peptides as possible compounds for the design of inhibitors of Elk-1 dimerisation. It would also be reasonable to consider the score ranked tri-peptides as a comparative test to establish whether peptide size is a determinant factor of binding to the ETS domain

Copy number signatures and mutational processes in ovarian carcinoma.

The genomic complexity of profound copy number aberrations has prevented effective molecular stratification of ovarian cancers. Here, to decode this complexity, we derived copy number signatures from shallow whole-genome sequencing of 117 high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) cases, which were validated on 527 independent cases. We show that HGSOC comprises a continuum of genomes shaped by multiple mutational processes that result in known patterns of genomic aberration. Copy number signature exposures at diagnosis predict both overall survival and the probability of platinum-resistant relapse. Measurement of signature exposures provides a rational framework to choose combination treatments that target multiple mutational processes.NIHR, Ovarian Cancer Action, Cancer Research UK Cambridge Centre, Cambridge Experimental Cancer Medicine Centr

Malaria vector research and control in Haiti: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Haiti has a set a target of eliminating malaria by 2020. However, information on malaria vector research in Haiti is not well known. This paper presents results from a systematic review of the literature on malaria vector research, bionomics and control in Haiti. METHODS: A systematic search of literature published in French, Spanish and English languages was conducted in 2015 using Pubmed (MEDLINE), Google Scholar, EMBASE, JSTOR WHOLIS and Web of Science databases as well other grey literature sources such as USAID, and PAHO. The following search terms were used: malaria, Haiti, Anopheles, and vector control. RESULTS: A total of 132 references were identified with 40 high quality references deemed relevant and included in this review. Six references dealt with mosquito distribution, seven with larval mosquito ecology, 16 with adult mosquito ecology, three with entomological indicators of malaria transmission, eight with insecticide resistance, one with sero-epidemiology and 16 with vector control. In the last 15 years (2000–2015), there have only been four published papers and three-scientific meeting abstracts on entomology for malaria in Haiti. Overall, the general literature on malaria vector research in Haiti is limited and dated. DISCUSSION: Entomological information generated from past studies in Haiti will contribute to the development of strategies to achieve malaria elimination on Hispaniola. However it is of paramount importance that malaria vector research in Haiti is updated to inform decision-making for vector control strategies in support of malaria elimination

Time domains of the hypoxic ventilatory response in ectothermic vertebrates

Over a decade has passed since Powell et al. (Respir Physiol 112:123–134, 1998) described and defined the time domains of the hypoxic ventilatory response (HVR) in adult mammals. These time domains, however, have yet to receive much attention in other vertebrate groups. The initial, acute HVR of fish, amphibians and reptiles serves to minimize the imbalance between oxygen supply and demand. If the hypoxia is sustained, a suite of secondary adjustments occur giving rise to a more long-term balance (acclimatization) that allows the behaviors of normal life. These secondary responses can change over time as a function of the nature of the stimulus (the pattern and intensity of the hypoxic exposure). To add to the complexity of this process, hypoxia can also lead to metabolic suppression (the hypoxic metabolic response) and the magnitude of this is also time dependent. Unlike the original review of Powell et al. (Respir Physiol 112:123–134, 1998) that only considered the HVR in adult animals, we also consider relevant developmental time points where information is available. Finally, in amphibians and reptiles with incompletely divided hearts the magnitude of the ventilatory response will be modulated by hypoxia-induced changes in intra-cardiac shunting that also improve the match between O2 supply and demand, and these too change in a time-dependent fashion. While the current literature on this topic is reviewed here, it is noted that this area has received little attention. We attempt to redefine time domains in a more ‘holistic’ fashion that better accommodates research on ectotherms. If we are to distinguish between the genetic, developmental and environmental influences underlying the various ventilatory responses to hypoxia, however, we must design future experiments with time domains in mind