Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

Genetic modification for disease resistance: a position paper

This Position Paper was prepared by members of the Task Force on Global Food Security of the International Society for Plant Pathology. An objective approach is proposed to the assessment of the potential of genetic modification (GM) to reduce the impact of crop diseases. The addition of GM to the plant breeder’s conventional toolbox facilitates gene-by-gene introduction into breeding programmes of well defined characters, while also allowing access to genes from a greatly extended range of organisms. The current status of GM crops is outlined. GM could make an additional contribution to food security but its potential has been controversial, sometimes because of fixed views that GM is unnatural and risky. These have no factual basis: GM technology, where adopted, is widely regulated and no evidence has been reported of adverse consequences for human health. The potential benefits of GM could be particularly valuable for the developing world but there are numerous constraints. These include cost, inadequate seed supply systems, reluctance to adopt unfamiliar technology, concern about markets, inadequacy of local regulatory systems, mismatch between research and growers’ needs, and limited technical resources. The lower cost of new gene-editing methods should open the practice of GM beyond multinational corporations. As yet there are few examples of utilization of GM-based resistance to plant diseases. Two cases, papaya ringspot virus and banana xanthomonas wilt, are outlined. In the developing world there are many more potential cases whose progress is prevented by the absence of adequate biosafety regulation. It is concluded that there is untapped potential for using GM to introduce disease resistance. An objective approach to mobilizing this potential is recommended, to address the severe impact of plant disease on food security

Catching-up in the global factory: analysis and policy implications

MNEs shape the location of activities in the world economy, linking diverse regions in what has been called the global factory. This study portrays the evolution of incomes and employment in the global factory using a quantitative input–output approach. We find emerging economies forging ahead relative to advanced economies in income derived from fabrication activities, handling the physical transformation process of goods. In contrast, convergence in income derived from knowledge-intensive activities carried out in pre- and post-fabrication stages is much slower. We discuss possible barriers to catching-up and policy implications for emerging economies in developing innovation capabilities, stressing the pivotal role of MNEs

The Falkland Islands’ palaeoecological response to millennial‐scale climate perturbations during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition: implications for future vegetation stability in the southern ocean islands

Oceanic island flora is vulnerable to future climate warming, which is likely to promote changes in vegetation composition, and invasion of non‐native species. Sub‐Antarctic islands are predicted to experience rapid warming during the next century; therefore, establishing trajectories of change in vegetation communities is essential for developing conservation strategies to preserve biological diversity. We present a Late‐glacial‐early Holocene (16 500–6450 cal a bp) palaeoecological record from Hooker's Point, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), South Atlantic. This period spans the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition, providing insight into biological responses to abrupt climate change. Pollen and plant macrofossil records appear insensitive to climatic cooling during the Late‐glacial, but undergo rapid turnover in response to regional warming. The absence of trees throughout the Late‐glacial‐early Holocene enables the recognition of far‐travelled pollen from southern South America. The first occurrence of Nothofagus (southern beech) may reflect changes in the strength and/or position of the Southern Westerly Wind Belt during the Late‐glacial period. Peat inception and accumulation at Hooker's Point is likely to be promoted by the recalcitrant litter of wind‐adapted flora. This recalcitrant litter helps to explain widespread peatland development in a comparatively dry environment, and suggests that wind‐adapted peatlands can remain carbon sinks even under low precipitation regimes

Volume Regulated Anion Channel Currents of Rat Hippocampal Neurons and Their Contribution to Oxygen-and-Glucose Deprivation Induced Neuronal Death

Volume-regulated anion channels (VRAC) are widely expressed chloride channels that are critical for the cell volume regulation. In the mammalian central nervous system, the physiological expression of neuronal VRAC and its role in cerebral ischemia are issues largely unknown. We show that hypoosmotic medium induce an outwardly rectifying chloride conductance in CA1 pyramidal neurons in rat hippocampal slices. The induced chloride conductance was sensitive to some of the VRAC inhibitors, namely, IAA-94 (300 µM) and NPPB (100 µM), but not to tamoxifen (10 µM). Using oxygen-and-glucose deprivation (OGD) to simulate ischemic conditions in slices, VRAC activation appeared after OGD induced anoxic depolarization (AD) that showed a progressive increase in current amplitude over the period of post-OGD reperfusion. The OGD induced VRAC currents were significantly inhibited by inhibitors for glutamate AMPA (30 µM NBQX) and NMDA (40 µM AP-5) receptors in the OGD solution, supporting the view that induction of AD requires an excessive Na+-loading via these receptors that in turn to activate neuronal VRAC. In the presence of NPPB and DCPIB in the post-OGD reperfusion solution, the OGD induced CA1 pyramidal neuron death, as measured by TO-PRO-3-I staining, was significantly reduced, although DCPIB did not appear to be an effective neuronal VRAC blocker. Altogether, we show that rat hippocampal pyramidal neurons express functional VRAC, and ischemic conditions can initial neuronal VRAC activation that may contribute to ischemic neuronal damage

Cognition based bTBI mechanistic criteria; a tool for preventive and therapeutic innovations

Blast-induced traumatic brain injury has been associated with neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. To date, although damage due to oxidative stress appears to be important, the specific mechanistic causes of such disorders remain elusive. Here, to determine the mechanical variables governing the tissue damage eventually cascading into cognitive deficits, we performed a study on the mechanics of rat brain under blast conditions. To this end, experiments were carried out to analyse and correlate post-injury oxidative stress distribution with cognitive deficits on a live rat exposed to blast. A computational model of the rat head was developed from imaging data and validated against in vivo brain displacement measurements. The blast event was reconstructed in silico to provide mechanistic thresholds that best correlate with cognitive damage at the regional neuronal tissue level, irrespectively of the shape or size of the brain tissue types. This approach was leveraged on a human head model where the prediction of cognitive deficits was shown to correlate with literature findings. The mechanistic insights from this work were finally used to propose a novel helmet design roadmap and potential avenues for therapeutic innovations against blast traumatic brain injury

Two Distinct Modes of Hypoosmotic Medium-Induced Release of Excitatory Amino Acids and Taurine in the Rat Brain In Vivo

A variety of physiological and pathological factors induce cellular swelling in the brain. Changes in cell volume activate several types of ion channels, which mediate the release of inorganic and organic osmolytes and allow for compensatory cell volume decrease. Volume-regulated anion channels (VRAC) are thought to be responsible for the release of some of organic osmolytes, including the excitatory neurotransmitters glutamate and aspartate. In the present study, we compared the in vivo properties of the swelling-activated release of glutamate, aspartate, and another major brain osmolyte taurine. Cell swelling was induced by perfusion of hypoosmotic (low [NaCl]) medium via a microdialysis probe placed in the rat cortex. The hypoosmotic medium produced several-fold increases in the extracellular levels of glutamate, aspartate and taurine. However, the release of the excitatory amino acids differed from the release of taurine in several respects including: (i) kinetic properties, (ii) sensitivity to isoosmotic changes in [NaCl], and (iii) sensitivity to hydrogen peroxide, which is known to modulate VRAC. Consistent with the involvement of VRAC, hypoosmotic medium-induced release of the excitatory amino acids was inhibited by the anion channel blocker DNDS, but not by the glutamate transporter inhibitor TBOA or Cd2+, which inhibits exocytosis. In order to elucidate the mechanisms contributing to taurine release, we studied its release properties in cultured astrocytes and cortical synaptosomes. Similarities between the results obtained in vivo and in synaptosomes suggest that the swelling-activated release of taurine in vivo may be of neuronal origin. Taken together, our findings indicate that different transport mechanisms and/or distinct cellular sources mediate hypoosmotic medium-induced release of the excitatory amino acids and taurine in vivo

Neutralising antibodies after COVID-19 vaccination in UK haemodialysis patients

Vaccination against COVID-19 induces highly protective immune responses in most people. As some countries switch from suppression to acceptance of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within a largely vaccinated adult population, vulnerable patient groups that have not mounted adequate immune responses to vaccination might experience significant morbidity and mortality. There is an urgent need to identify such patient groups and to optimise medical advice and vaccination strategies for them

Psoriasis Patients Are Enriched for Genetic Variants That Protect against HIV-1 Disease

An important paradigm in evolutionary genetics is that of a delicate balance between genetic variants that favorably boost host control of infection but which may unfavorably increase susceptibility to autoimmune disease. Here, we investigated whether patients with psoriasis, a common immune-mediated disease of the skin, are enriched for genetic variants that limit the ability of HIV-1 virus to replicate after infection. We analyzed the HLA class I and class II alleles of 1,727 Caucasian psoriasis cases and 3,581 controls and found that psoriasis patients are significantly more likely than controls to have gene variants that are protective against HIV-1 disease. This includes several HLA class I alleles associated with HIV-1 control; amino acid residues at HLA-B positions 67, 70, and 97 that mediate HIV-1 peptide binding; and the deletion polymorphism rs67384697 associated with high surface expression of HLA-C. We also found that the compound genotype KIR3DS1 plus HLA-B Bw4-80I, which respectively encode a natural killer cell activating receptor and its putative ligand, significantly increased psoriasis susceptibility. This compound genotype has also been associated with delay of progression to AIDS. Together, our results suggest that genetic variants that contribute to anti-viral immunity may predispose to the development of psoriasis

Nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome (Gorlin syndrome)

Nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome (NBCCS), also known as Gorlin syndrome, is a hereditary condition characterized by a wide range of developmental abnormalities and a predisposition to neoplasms