Universality, limits and predictability of gold-medal performances at the Olympic Games

Inspired by the Games held in ancient Greece, modern Olympics represent the world's largest pageant of athletic skill and competitive spirit. Performances of athletes at the Olympic Games mirror, since 1896, human potentialities in sports, and thus provide an optimal source of information for studying the evolution of sport achievements and predicting the limits that athletes can reach. Unfortunately, the models introduced so far for the description of athlete performances at the Olympics are either sophisticated or unrealistic, and more importantly, do not provide a unified theory for sport performances. Here, we address this issue by showing that relative performance improvements of medal winners at the Olympics are normally distributed, implying that the evolution of performance values can be described in good approximation as an exponential approach to an a priori unknown limiting performance value. This law holds for all specialties in athletics-including running, jumping, and throwing-and swimming. We present a self-consistent method, based on normality hypothesis testing, able to predict limiting performance values in all specialties. We further quantify the most likely years in which athletes will breach challenging performance walls in running, jumping, throwing, and swimming events, as well as the probability that new world records will be established at the next edition of the Olympic Games.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Supporting information files and data are available at filrad.homelinux.or

Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C’. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions, and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climate-carbon cycle system. Using a sequence of ensembles of a fully dynamic three-dimensional climate-carbon cycle model, forced by emissions from an integrated assessment model of regional-level climate policy, economy, and technological transformation, we show that a reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement is still technically achievable. Specifically, limiting peak (decadal) warming to less than 1.7°C, or end-century warming to less than 1.54°C, occurs in 50% of our simulations in a policy scenario without net negative emissions or excessive stringency in any policy domain. We evaluate two mitigation scenarios, with 200 GTC and 307 GTC post-2017 emissions, quantifying spatio-temporal variability of warming, precipitation, ocean acidification and marine productivity. Under rapid decarbonisation decadal variability dominates the mean response in critical regions, with significant implications for decision making, demanding impact methodologies that address non-linear spatio-temporal responses. Ignoring carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties (explaining 47% of peak warming uncertainty) becomes unreasonable under strong mitigation conditions.We acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (to J.-F.M., fellowship number EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (to J.-F.M., P.S. and J.E.V., EPSRC grant number EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant number ES/N013174/1), NERC (to N.R.E., P.H. and H.P., grant number NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (to P.S.), the Philomathia Foundation (to J.E.V.) and Horizon 2020 (to H.E.P. and J.-F.M., the Sim4Nexus project)

Transcriptomics reveal an integrative role for maternal thyroid hormones during zebrafish embryogenesis

Thyroid hormones (THs) are essential for embryonic brain development but the genetic mechanisms involved in the action of maternal THs (MTHs) are still largely unknown. As the basis for understanding the underlying genetic mechanisms of MTHs regulation we used an established zebrafish monocarboxylic acid transporter 8 (MCT8) knock-down model and characterised the transcriptome in 25hpf zebrafish embryos. Subsequent mapping of differentially expressed genes using Reactome pathway analysis together with in situ expression analysis and immunohistochemistry revealed the genetic networks and cells under MTHs regulation during zebrafish embryogenesis. We found 4,343 differentially expressed genes and the Reactome pathway analysis revealed that TH is involved in 1681 of these pathways. MTHs regulated the expression of core developmental pathways, such as NOTCH and WNT in a cell specific context. The cellular distribution of neural MTH-target genes demonstrated their cell specific action on neural stem cells and differentiated neuron classes. Taken together our data show that MTHs have a role in zebrafish neurogenesis and suggest they may be involved in cross talk between key pathways in neural development. Given that the observed MCT8 zebrafish knockdown phenotype resembles the symptoms in human patients with Allan-Herndon-Dudley syndrome our data open a window into understanding the genetics of this human congenital condition.Portuguese Fundacao para Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) [PTDC/EXPL/MARBIO/0430/2013]; CCMAR FCT Plurianual financing [UID/Multi/04326/2013]; FCT [SFRH/BD/111226/2015, SFRH/BD/108842/2015, SFRH/BPD/89889/2012]; FCT-IF Starting Grant [IF/01274/2014]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)

Updates in non-small cell lung cancer - insights from the 2009 45th annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology

We have reviewed the pivotal presentations in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the 2009 annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. We have discussed the scientific data, the impact on standards of care, and ongoing clinical trials

Measuring substance use in the club setting: a feasibility study using biochemical markers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the last few decades the use of club drugs (e.g., cocaine, amphetamines) has been of increased concern in nightlife settings. Traditionally, surveys have been used to estimate the use of club drugs, however, they mostly rely on self-reports which may not be accurate. Recent advances have allowed for readily accessible drug testing methods such as oral fluid drug testing. Nevertheless, research using oral fluid sampling to measure the frequency of drug use in the club environment is scarce. The objective of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of measuring the frequency of alcohol and drug use among Swedish clubbers using breath alcohol and oral fluid drug testing.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>The setting was a 40 hour electronic music dance event (EMDE) on a cruise ship on the Baltic Sea, departing from Sweden, with 875 passengers. Groups of participants at the EMDE were randomly invited to participate. Data were collected with face-to-face and self-administered questionnaires. Further, oral fluid samples were collected to determine illicit drug use, and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) levels were measured using a breath analyzer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 422 passengers were asked to participate in the study whereof 21 declined (5.0% refusal rate). Of the 401 study participants (accounting for 45.8% of all attendees), 5 declined oral fluid drug testing. Results show that there was a discrepancy between self-reported and actual drug use as 10.1% of the participants were positive on illicit drug use (amphetamines, ecstasy/MDMA, cannabis, cocaine), while only 3.7% of the participants reported drug use during the last 48 hours. The average BAC level was 0.10% and 23.7% had BAC levels ≥ 0.15%, while 5.9% had levels below the detection limit. The mean BAC levels for the illicit drug users were significantly higher (<it>p </it>= 0.004) than for non-drug users (0.13% vs. 0.10%). Self-reported AUDIT-C scores (using a threshold of ≥ 5 for men and ≥ 4 for women) revealed that 76.0% of the men and 80.7% of the women had risky alcohol consumption patterns.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study indicates that it is feasible to conduct breath alcohol and oral fluid drug testing in a Swedish club setting.</p

A copula model for marked point processes

The final publication (Diao, Liqun, Richard J. Cook, and Ker-Ai Lee. (2013) A copula model for marked point processes. Lifetime Data Analysis, 19(4): 463-489) is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10985-013-9259-3Many chronic diseases feature recurring clinically important events. In addition, however, there often exists a random variable which is realized upon the occurrence of each event reflecting the severity of the event, a cost associated with it, or possibly a short term response indicating the effect of a therapeutic intervention. We describe a novel model for a marked point process which incorporates a dependence between continuous marks and the event process through the use of a copula function. The copula formulation ensures that event times can be modeled by any intensity function for point processes, and any multivariate model can be specified for the continuous marks. The relative efficiency of joint versus separate analyses of the event times and the marks is examined through simulation under random censoring. An application to data from a recent trial in transfusion medicine is given for illustration.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN 155849); Canadian Institutes for Health Research (FRN 13887); Canada Research Chair (Tier 1) – CIHR funded (950-226626

A European study on alcohol and drug use among young drivers : The TEND by night study design and methodology

Background. Young individuals are the age group with the highest risk of car accidents. One of main explanations relies on the use of psychoactive substances (alcohol, illegal and medicinal drugs), which are known to be major risk factors of road accidents, and whose consumption is almost universally more common among younger drivers. Although the correlation between psychoactive substances use and decrease in driving performance has been established in controlled experimental or laboratory settings, few studies were conducted in naturalistic circumstances. The TEND by Night project has been designed to evaluate the relationship between driving performance and psychoactive substances assumption in young drivers enrolled at typical places of consumption. Methods/Design. The TEND by Night project, endorsed by the European Commission, is a multidisciplinary, multi-centric, cross-sectional study conducted in six European countries (Italy, Belgium/Netherlands, Bulgaria, Spain, Poland and Latvia). The study population consists of 5000 young drivers aged 16-34 years, attending recreational sites during weekend nights. The intervention is based on the portal survey technique and includes several steps at the entrance and exit of selected sites, including the administration of semi-structured questionnaires, breath alcohol test, several drug assumption test, and measurement of the reaction time using a driving simulator. The main outcome is the difference in reaction time between the entrance and exit of the recreation site, and its correlation with psychoactive substances use. As a secondary outcome it will be explored the relationship between reaction time difference and the amount of consumption of each substance. All analyses will be multivariate. Discussion. The project methodology should provide some relevant advantages over traditional survey systems. The main strengths of the study include the large and multicentric sample, the objective measurement of substance assumption (which is typically self-reported), the application of a portal survey technique and the simultaneous evaluation of several psychoactive substances.publishersversionPeer reviewe

High Post-Capture Survival for Sharks, Rays and Chimaeras Discarded in the Main Shark Fishery of Australia?

Most sharks, rays and chimaeras (chondrichthyans) taken in commercial fisheries are discarded (i.e. returned to the ocean either dead or alive). Quantifying the post-capture survival (PCS) of discarded species is therefore essential for the improved management and conservation of this group. For all chondrichthyans taken in the main shark fishery of Australia, we quantified the immediate PCS of individuals reaching the deck of commercial shark gillnet fishing vessels and applied a risk-based method to semi-quantitatively determine delayed and total PCS. Estimates of immediate, delayed and total PCS were consistent, being very high for the most commonly discarded species (Port Jackson shark, Australian swellshark, and spikey dogfish) and low for the most important commercial species (gummy and school sharks). Increasing gillnet soak time or water temperature significantly decreased PCS. Chondrichthyans with bottom-dwelling habits had the highest PCS whereas those with pelagic habits had the lowest PCS. The risk-based approach can be easily implemented as a standard practice of on-board observing programs, providing a convenient first-step assessment of the PCS of all species taken in commercial fisheries