A Comparative Assessment of Non-Laboratory-Based versus Commonly Used Laboratory-Based Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores in the NHANES III Population

National and international primary CVD risk screening guidelines focus on using total CVD risk scores. Recently, we developed a non-laboratory-based CVD risk score (inputs: age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, body-mass index), which can assess risk faster and at lower costs compared to laboratory-based scores (inputs include cholesterol values). We aimed to assess the exchangeability of the non-laboratory-based risk score to four commonly used laboratory-based scores (Framingham CVD [2008, 1991 versions], and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE] for low and high risk settings) in an external validation population.Analyses were based on individual-level, score-specific rankings of risk for adults in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) aged 25–74 years, without history of CVD or cancer (n = 5,999). Risk characterization agreement was based on overlap in dichotomous risk characterization (thresholds of 10-year risk >10–20%) and Spearman rank correlation. Risk discrimination was assessed using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (10-year CVD death outcome). Risk characterization agreement ranged from 91.9–95.7% and 94.2–95.1% with Spearman correlation ranges of 0.957–0.980 and 0.946–0.970 for men and women, respectively. In men, c-statistics for the non-laboratory-based, Framingham (2008, 1991), and SCORE (high, low) functions were 0.782, 0.776, 0.781, 0.785, and 0.785, with p-values for differences relative to the non-laboratory-based score of 0.44, 0.89, 0.68 and 0.65, respectively. In women, the corresponding c-statistics were 0.809, 0.834, 0.821, 0.792, and 0.792, with corresponding p-values of 0.04, 0.34, 0.11 and 0.09, respectively.Every score discriminated risk of CVD death well, and there was high agreement in risk characterization between non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk scores, which suggests that the non-laboratory-based score can be a useful proxy for Framingham or SCORE functions in resource-limited settings. Future external validation studies can assess whether the sex-specific risk discrimination results hold in other populations

Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

Background: Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting. Findings. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers. Conclusions: Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk

"Summary Page": a novel tool that reduces omitted data in research databases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data entry errors are common in clinical research databases. Omitted data are of particular concern because they are more common than erroneously inserted data and therefore could potentially affect research findings. However, few affordable strategies for their prevention are available.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We have conducted a prospective observational study of the effect of a novel tool called "<it>Summary Page</it>" on the frequency of correction of omitted data errors in a radiation oncology research database between July 2008 and March 2009. "<it>Summary Page</it>" was implemented as an optionally accessed screen in the database that visually integrates key fields in the record. We assessed the frequency of omitted data on the example of the <it>Date of Relapse </it>field. We considered the data in this field to be omitted for all records that had empty <it>Date of Relapse </it>field and evidence of relapse elsewhere in the record.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1,156 records were updated and 200 new records were entered in the database over the study period. "<it>Summary Page</it>" was accessed for 44% of all updated records and for 69% of newly entered records. Frequency of correction of the omitted date of cancer relapse was six-fold higher in records for which "<it>Summary Page</it>" was accessed (p = 0.0003).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>"<it>Summary Page</it>" was strongly associated with an increased frequency of correction of omitted data errors. Further, controlled, studies are needed to confirm this finding and elucidate its mechanism of action.</p

Construction of an odds model of coronary heart disease using published information: the Cardiovascular Health Improvement Model (CHIME)

Background: There is a need for a new cardiovascular disease model that includes a wider range of relevant risk factors, in particular lifestyle factors, to aid targeting of interventions and improve population models of the impact of cardiovascular disease and preventive strategies. The model needs to be applicable to a wider population including different ethnic groups, different countries and to those with and without cardiovascular disease. This paper describes the construction of the Cardiovascular Health Improvement Model that aims to meet these requirements. Method: An odds model is used. Information was taken from 2003 mortality statistics for England and Wales, the Health Survey for England 2003 and published data on relative risk in those with and without CVD and mean blood pressure values in hypertensives. The odds ratios used were taken from the INTERHEART study. Results: A worked example is given calculating the 10-year coronary heart disease risk for a 57 year-old non-diabetic male with no personal or family history of cardiovascular disease, who smokes 30 cigarettes a day and has a systolic blood pressure of 137 mmHg, a total cholesterol (TC) of 6.2 mmol/l, a high density lipoprotein (HDL) of 1.3 mol/l, and a body mass index of 21. He neither drinks regularly nor exercises. He can give no reliable information about his mental health or fruit and vegetable intake. His 10-year risk of CHD death is 2.47%. Conclusion: This paper demonstrates a method for developing a CHD risk model. Further improvements could be made to the model with additional information. The method is applicable to other causes of death

A risk prediction model for the assessment and triage of women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in low-resourced settings: the miniPIERS (Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk) multi-country prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia/eclampsia are leading causes of maternal mortality and morbidity, particularly in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). We developed the miniPIERS risk prediction model to provide a simple, evidence-based tool to identify pregnant women in LMICs at increased risk of death or major hypertensive-related complications. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From 1 July 2008 to 31 March 2012, in five LMICs, data were collected prospectively on 2,081 women with any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy admitted to a participating centre. Candidate predictors collected within 24 hours of admission were entered into a step-wise backward elimination logistic regression model to predict a composite adverse maternal outcome within 48 hours of admission. Model internal validation was accomplished by bootstrapping and external validation was completed using data from 1,300 women in the Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk (fullPIERS) dataset. Predictive performance was assessed for calibration, discrimination, and stratification capacity. The final miniPIERS model included: parity (nulliparous versus multiparous); gestational age on admission; headache/visual disturbances; chest pain/dyspnoea; vaginal bleeding with abdominal pain; systolic blood pressure; and dipstick proteinuria. The miniPIERS model was well-calibrated and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) of 0.768 (95% CI 0.735-0.801) with an average optimism of 0.037. External validation AUC ROC was 0.713 (95% CI 0.658-0.768). A predicted probability ≥25% to define a positive test classified women with 85.5% accuracy. Limitations of this study include the composite outcome and the broad inclusion criteria of any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. This broad approach was used to optimize model generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: The miniPIERS model shows reasonable ability to identify women at increased risk of adverse maternal outcomes associated with the hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. It could be used in LMICs to identify women who would benefit most from interventions such as magnesium sulphate, antihypertensives, or transportation to a higher level of care

Active management of the third stage of labour without controlled cord traction: a randomized non-inferiority controlled trial

BACKGROUND: The third stage of labour refers to the period between birth of the baby and complete expulsion of the placenta. Some degree of blood loss occurs after the birth of the baby due to separation of the placenta. This period is a risky period because uterus may not contract well after birth and heavy blood loss can endanger the life of the mother. Active management of the third stage of labour (AMTSL) reduces the occurrence of severe postpartum haemorrhage by approximately 60-70%. Active management consists of several interventions packaged together and the relative contribution of each of the components is unknown. Controlled cord traction is one of those components that require training in manual skill for it to be performed appropriately. If it is possible to dispense with controlled cord traction without losing efficacy it would have major implications for effective management of the third stage of labour at peripheral levels of health care. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective is to determine whether the simplified package of oxytocin 10 IU IM/IV is not less effective than the full AMTSL package. METHODS: A hospital-based, multicentre, individually randomized controlled trial is proposed. The hypothesis tested will be a non-inferiority hypothesis. The aim will be to determine whether the simplified package without CCT, with the advantage of not requiring training to acquire the manual skill to perform this task, is not less effective than the full AMTSL package with regard to reducing blood loss in the third stage of labour.The simplified package will include uterotonic (oxytocin 10 IU IM) injection after delivery of the baby and cord clamping and cutting at approximately 3 minutes after birth. The full package will include the uterotonic injection (oxytocin 10 IU IM), controlled cord traction following observation of uterine contraction and cord clamping and cutting at approximately 3 minutes after birth. The primary outcome measure is blood loss of 1000 ml or more at one hour and up to two hours for women who continue to bleed after one hour. The secondary outcomes are blood transfusion, the use of additional uterotonics and measure of severe morbidity and maternal death.We aim to recruit 25,000 women delivering vaginally in health facilities in eight countries within a 12 month recruitment period. MANAGEMENT: Overall trial management will be from HRP/RHR in Geneva. There will be eight centres located in Argentina, Egypt, India, Kenya, Philippines, South Africa, Thailand and Uganda. There will be an online data entry system managed from HRP/RHR. The trial protocol was developed following a technical consultation with international organizations and leading researchers in the field. EXPECTED OUTCOMES: The main objective of this trial is to investigate whether a simplified package of third stage management can be recommended without increasing the risk of PPH. By avoiding the need for a manual procedure that requires training, the third stage management can be implemented in a more widespread and cost-effective way around the world even at the most peripheral levels of the health care system. This trial forms part of the programme of work to reduce maternal deaths due to postpartum haemorrhage within the RHR department in collaboration with other research groups and organizations active in the field. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12608000434392

The ARIC predictive model reliably predicted risk of type II diabetes in Asian populations

10.1186/1471-2288-12-48BMC Medical Research Methodology12