An international data set for CMML validates prognostic scoring systems and demonstrates a need for novel prognostication strategies

Since its reclassification as a distinct disease entity, clinical research efforts have attempted to establish baseline characteristics and prognostic scoring systems for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). Although existing data for baseline characteristics and CMML prognostication have been robustly developed and externally validated, these results have been limited by the small size of single-institution cohorts. We developed an international CMML data set that included 1832 cases across eight centers to establish the frequency of key clinical characteristics. Of note, we found that the majority of CMML patients were classified as World Health Organization CMML-1 and that a 7.5% bone marrow blast cut-point may discriminate prognosis with higher resolution in comparison with the existing 10%. We additionally interrogated existing CMML prognostic models and found that they are all valid and have comparable performance but are vulnerable to upstaging. Using random forest survival analysis for variable discovery, we demonstrated that the prognostic power of clinical variables alone is limited. Last, we confirmed the independent prognostic relevance of ASXL1 gene mutations and identified the novel adverse prognostic impact imparted by CBL mutations. Our data suggest that combinations of clinical and molecular information may be required to improve the accuracy of current CMML prognostication

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries

Role of allogeneic transplantation in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia: an international collaborative analysis

To determine the survival benefit of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) in chronic myelomonocytic leukemias (CMML), we assembled a retrospective cohort of CMML patients 18-70 years old diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 from an international CMML dataset (n 5 730) and the EBMT registry (n 5 384). The prognostic impact of allo-HCT was analyzed through univariable and multivariable time-dependent models and with a multistate model, accounting for age, sex, CMML prognostic scoring system (low or intermediate-1 grouped as lower-risk, intermediate-2 or high as higher-risk) at diagnosis, and AML transformation. In univariable analysis, lower-risk CMMLs had a 5-year overall survival (OS) of 20% with allo-HCT vs 42% without allo-HCT (P <.001). In higher-risk patients, 5-year OS was 27% with allo-HCT vs 15% without allo-HCT (P 5.13). With multistate models, performing allo-HCT before AML transformation reduced OS in patients with lower-risk CMML, and a survival benefit was predicted for men with higher-risk CMML. In a multivariable analysis of lower-risk patients, performing allo-HCT before transformation to AML significantly increased the risk of death within 2 years of transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 3.19; P <.001), with no significant change in long-term survival beyond this time point (HR, 0.98; P 5.92). In higherrisk patients, allo-HCT significantly increased the risk of death in the first 2 years after transplant (HR 1.46; P 5.01) but not beyond (HR, 0.60; P 5.09). Performing allo-HCT before AML transformation decreases life expectancy in lower-risk patients but may be considered in higher-risk patients.Development and application of statistical models for medical scientific researc

Critical care usage after major gastrointestinal and liver surgery: a prospective, multicentre observational study

Background Patient selection for critical care admission must balance patient safety with optimal resource allocation. This study aimed to determine the relationship between critical care admission, and postoperative mortality after abdominal surgery. Methods This prespecified secondary analysis of a multicentre, prospective, observational study included consecutive patients enrolled in the DISCOVER study from UK and Republic of Ireland undergoing major gastrointestinal and liver surgery between October and December 2014. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore associations between critical care admission (planned and unplanned) and mortality, and inter-centre variation in critical care admission after emergency laparotomy. Results Of 4529 patients included, 37.8% (n=1713) underwent planned critical care admissions from theatre. Some 3.1% (n=86/2816) admitted to ward-level care subsequently underwent unplanned critical care admission. Overall 30-day mortality was 2.9% (n=133/4519), and the risk-adjusted association between 30-day mortality and critical care admission was higher in unplanned [odds ratio (OR): 8.65, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.51–19.97) than planned admissions (OR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.43–3.85). Some 26.7% of patients (n=1210/4529) underwent emergency laparotomies. After adjustment, 49.3% (95% CI: 46.8–51.9%, P<0.001) were predicted to have planned critical care admissions, with 7% (n=10/145) of centres outside the 95% CI. Conclusions After risk adjustment, no 30-day survival benefit was identified for either planned or unplanned postoperative admissions to critical care within this cohort. This likely represents appropriate admission of the highest-risk patients. Planned admissions in selected, intermediate-risk patients may present a strategy to mitigate the risk of unplanned admission. Substantial inter-centre variation exists in planned critical care admissions after emergency laparotomies

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions. © Copyright

Body mass index and complications following major gastrointestinal surgery: A prospective, international cohort study and meta-analysis

Aim Previous studies reported conflicting evidence on the effects of obesity on outcomes after gastrointestinal surgery. The aims of this study were to explore the relationship of obesity with major postoperative complications in an international cohort and to present a metaanalysis of all available prospective data. Methods This prospective, multicentre study included adults undergoing both elective and emergency gastrointestinal resection, reversal of stoma or formation of stoma. The primary end-point was 30-day major complications (Clavien–Dindo Grades III–V). A systematic search was undertaken for studies assessing the relationship between obesity and major complications after gastrointestinal surgery. Individual patient meta-analysis was used to analyse pooled results. Results This study included 2519 patients across 127 centres, of whom 560 (22.2%) were obese. Unadjusted major complication rates were lower in obese vs normal weight patients (13.0% vs 16.2%, respectively), but this did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.863) on multivariate analysis for patients having surgery for either malignant or benign conditions. Individual patient meta-analysis demonstrated that obese patients undergoing surgery formalignancy were at increased risk of major complications (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.49–2.96, P < 0.001), whereas obese patients undergoing surgery for benign indications were at decreased risk (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.46–0.75, P < 0.001) compared to normal weight patients. Conclusions In our international data, obesity was not found to be associated with major complications following gastrointestinal surgery. Meta-analysis of available prospective data made a novel finding of obesity being associated with different outcomes depending on whether patients were undergoing surgery for benign or malignant disease