An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models’ contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 5 project (Que´bec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in 10 Southern Que´bec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs’ members over a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows

On the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate change impacts on river runoff

In climate change impact research, the assessment of future river runoff as well as the catchment scale water balance is impeded by different sources of modeling uncertainty. Some research has already been done in order to quantify the uncertainty of climate 5 projections originating from the climate models and the downscaling techniques as well as from the internal variability evaluated from climate model member ensembles. Yet, the use of hydrological models adds another layer of incertitude. Within the QBic3 project (Qu´ebec-Bavaria International Collaboration on Climate Change) the relative contributions to the overall uncertainty from the whole model chain (from global climate 10 models to water management models) are investigated using an ensemble of multiple climate and hydrological models. Although there are many options to downscale global climate projections to the regional scale, recent impact studies tend to use Regional Climate Models (RCMs). One reason for that is that the physical coherence between atmospheric and land-surface 15 variables is preserved. The coherence between temperature and precipitation is of particular interest in hydrology. However, the regional climate model outputs often are biased compared to the observed climatology of a given region. Therefore, biases in those outputs are often corrected to reproduce historic runoff conditions from hydrological models using them, even if those corrections alter the relationship between temperature and precipitation. So, as bias correction may affect the consistency between RCM output variables, the use of correction techniques and even the use of (biased) climate model data itself is sometimes disputed among scientists. For those reasons, the effect of bias correction on simulated runoff regimes and the relative change in selected runoff indicators is explored. If it affects the conclusion of climate change analysis in 25 hydrology, we should consider it as a source of uncertainty. If not, the application of bias correction methods is either unnecessary in hydro-climatic projections, or safe to use as it does not alter the change signal of river runoff. The results of the present paper highlight the analysis of daily runoff simulated with four different hydrological models in two natural-flow catchments, driven by different regional climate models for a reference and a future period. As expected, bias correction of climate model outputs is important for the reproduction of the runoff regime of the 5 past regardless of the hydrological model used. Then again, its impact on the relative change of flow indicators between reference and future period is weak for most indicators with the exception of the timing of the spring flood peak. Still, our results indicate that the impact of bias correction on runoff indicators increases with bias in the climate simulations

Gain properties of dye-doped polymer thin films

Hybrid pumping appears as a promising compromise in order to reach the much coveted goal of an electrically pumped organic laser. In such configuration the organic material is optically pumped by an electrically pumped inorganic device on chip. This engineering solution requires therefore an optimization of the organic gain medium under optical pumping. Here, we report a detailed study of the gain features of dye-doped polymer thin films. In particular we introduce the gain efficiency $K$, in order to facilitate comparison between different materials and experimental conditions. The gain efficiency was measured with various setups (pump-probe amplification, variable stripe length method, laser thresholds) in order to study several factors which modify the actual gain of a layer, namely the confinement factor, the pump polarization, the molecular anisotropy, and the re-absorption. For instance, for a 600 nm thick 5 wt\% DCM doped PMMA layer, the different experimental approaches give a consistent value $K\simeq$ 80 cm.MW$^{-1}$. On the contrary, the usual model predicting the gain from the characteristics of the material leads to an overestimation by two orders of magnitude, which raises a serious problem in the design of actual devices. In this context, we demonstrate the feasibility to infer the gain efficiency from the laser threshold of well-calibrated devices. Besides, temporal measurements at the picosecond scale were carried out to support the analysis.Comment: 15 pages, 17 figure

Influence of the substrate-induced strain and irradiation disorder on the Peierls transition in TTF-TCNQ microdomains

The influence of the combined effects of substrate-induced strain, finite size and electron irradiation-induced defects have been studied on individual micron-sized domains of the organic charge transfer compound tetrathiafulvalene-tetracyanoquinodimethane (TTF-TCNQ) by temperature-dependent conductivity and current-voltage measurements. The individual domains have been isolated by focused ion beam etching and electrically contacted by focused ion and electron beam induced deposition of metallic contacts. The temperature-dependent conductivity follows a variable range hopping behavior which shows a crossover of the exponent as the Peierls transition is approached. The low temperature behavior is analyzed within the segmented rod model of Fogler, Teber and Shklowskii, as originally developed for a charge-ordered quasi one-dimensional electron crystal. The results are compared with data obtained on as-grown and electron irradiated epitaxial TTF-TCNQ thin films of the two-domain type

Method for fabricating submicron silicide structures on silicon using a resistless electron beam lithography process

Abstract : A novel resistless lithography process using a conventional electron beam system is presented. Metallic lines with widths of less than 50 nm were produced on silicon substrates. The process is based on localized heating with a focused electron beam of thin platinum layers deposited on silicon. It is demonstrated that silicide formation occurs at the Pt-Si interface. By using a dilute solution of aqua regia, it is possible to obtain a sufficient difference in etch rates between exposed and unexposed regions of the platinum thin film to selectively remove only the unexposed areas

Direct observation of lithium metal dendrites with ceramic solid electrolyte

Dendrite formation, which could cause a battery short circuit, occurs in batteries that contain lithium metal anodes. In order to suppress dendrite growth, the use of electrolytes with a high shear modulus is suggested as an ionic conductive separator in batteries. One promising candidate for this application is Li7La3Zr2O12 (LLZO) because it has excellent mechanical properties and chemical stability. In this work, in situ scanning electron microscopy (SEM) technique was employed to monitor the interface behavior between lithium metal and LLZO electrolyte during cycling with pressure. Using the obtained SEM images, videos were created that show the inhomogeneous dissolution and deposition of lithium, which induce dendrite growth. The energy dispersive spectroscopy analyses of dendrites indicate the presence of Li, C, and O elements. Moreover, the cross-section mapping comparison of the LLZO shows the inhomogeneous distribution of La, Zr, and C after cycling that was caused by lithium loss near the Li electrode and possible side reactions. This work demonstrates the morphological and chemical evolution that occurs during cycling in a symmetrical Li–Li cell that contains LLZO. Although the superior mechanical properties of LLZO make it an excellent electrolyte candidate for batteries, the further improvement of the electrochemical stabilization of the garnet–lithium metal interface is suggested

Dynamics of Transformation from Segregation to Mixed Wealth Cities

We model the dynamics of the Schelling model for agents described simply by a continuously distributed variable - wealth. Agents move to neighborhoods where their wealth is not lesser than that of some proportion of their neighbors, the threshold level. As in the case of the classic Schelling model where segregation obtains between two races, we find here that wealth-based segregation occurs and persists. However, introducing uncertainty into the decision to move - that is, with some probability, if agents are allowed to move even though the threshold level condition is contravened - we find that even for small proportions of such disallowed moves, the dynamics no longer yield segregation but instead sharply transition into a persistent mixed wealth distribution. We investigate the nature of this sharp transformation between segregated and mixed states, and find that it is because of a non-linear relationship between allowed moves and disallowed moves. For small increases in disallowed moves, there is a rapid corresponding increase in allowed moves, but this tapers off as the fraction of disallowed moves increase further and finally settles at a stable value, remaining invariant to any further increase in disallowed moves. It is the overall effect of the dynamics in the initial region (with small numbers of disallowed moves) that shifts the system away from a state of segregation rapidly to a mixed wealth state. The contravention of the tolerance condition could be interpreted as public policy interventions like minimal levels of social housing or housing benefit transfers to poorer households. Our finding therefore suggests that it might require only very limited levels of such public intervention - just sufficient to enable a small fraction of disallowed moves, because the dynamics generated by such moves could spur the transformation from a segregated to mixed equilibrium.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure

Phase I dose-escalation trial of the oral AKT inhibitor uprosertib in combination with the oral MEK1/MEK2 inhibitor trametinib in patients with solid tumors.

PurposeThis study aimed to determine the safety, tolerability, and recommended phase II doses of trametinib plus uprosertib (GSK2141795) in patients with solid tumors likely to be sensitive to MEK and/or AKT inhibition.MethodsThis was a phase I, open-label, dose-escalation, and dose-expansion study in patients with triple-negative breast cancer or BRAF-wild type advanced melanoma. The primary outcome of the expansion study was investigator-assessed response. Among 126 enrolled patients, 63 received continuous oral daily dosing of trametinib and uprosertib, 29 received various alternative dosing schedules, and 34 were enrolled into expansion cohorts. Doses tested in the expansion cohort were trametinib 1.5 mg once daily (QD) + uprosertib 50 mg QD.ResultsAdverse events (AEs) were consistent with those reported in monotherapy studies but occurred at lower doses and with greater severity. Diarrhea was the most common dose-limiting toxicity; diarrhea and rash were particularly difficult to tolerate. Overall, 59% and 6% of patients reported AEs with a maximum severity of grade 3 and 4, respectively. Poor tolerability prevented adequate delivery of uprosertib with trametinib at a concentration predicted to have clinical activity. The study was terminated early based on futility in the continuous-dosing expansion cohorts and a lack of pharmacological or therapeutic advantage with intermittent dosing. The objective response rate was < 5% (1 complete response, 5 partial responses).ConclusionsContinuous and intermittent dosing of trametinib in combination with uprosertib was not tolerated, and minimal clinical activity was observed in all schedules tested