Measuring Distance and Properties of the Milky Way's Central Supermassive Black Hole with Stellar Orbits

We report new precision measurements of the properties of our Galaxy's supermassive black hole. Based on astrometric (1995-2007) and radial velocity (2000-2007) measurements from the W. M. Keck 10-meter telescopes, a fully unconstrained Keplerian orbit for the short period star S0-2 provides values for Ro of 8.0+-0.6 kpc, M_bh of 4.1+-0.6x10^6 Mo, and the black hole's radial velocity, which is consistent with zero with 30 km/s uncertainty. If the black hole is assumed to be at rest with respect to the Galaxy, we can further constrain the fit and obtain Ro = 8.4+-0.4 kpc and M_bh = 4.5+-0.4x10^6 Mo. More complex models constrain the extended dark mass distribution to be less than 3-4x10^5 Mo within 0.01 pc, ~100x higher than predictions from stellar and stellar remnant models. For all models, we identify transient astrometric shifts from source confusion and the assumptions regarding the black hole's radial motion as previously unrecognized limitations on orbital accuracy and the usefulness of fainter stars. Future astrometric and RV observations will remedy these effects. Our estimates of Ro and the Galaxy's local rotation speed, which it is derived from combining Ro with the apparent proper motion of Sgr A*, (theta0 = 229+-18 km/s), are compatible with measurements made using other methods. The increased black hole mass found in this study, compared to that determined using projected mass estimators, implies a longer period for the innermost stable orbit, longer resonant relaxation timescales for stars in the vicinity of the black hole and a better agreement with the M_bh-sigma relation.Comment: ApJ, accepted (26 pages, 16 figures, 7 tables

Designing and Piloting a Tool for the Measurement of the Use of Pronunciation Learning Strategies

What appears to be indispensable to drive the field forward and ensure that research findings will be comparable across studies and provide a sound basis for feasible pedagogic proposals is to draw up a classification of PLS and design on that basis a valid and reliable data collection tool which could be employed to measure the use of these strategies in different groups of learners, correlate it with individual and contextual variables, and appraise the effects of training programs. In accordance with this rationale, the present paper represents an attempt to propose a tentative categorization of pronunciation learning strategies, adopting as a point of reference the existing taxonomies of strategic devices (i.e. O'Malley and Chamot 1990; Oxford 1990) and the instructional options teachers have at their disposal when dealing with elements of this language subsystem (e.g. Kelly 2000; Goodwin 2001). It also introduces a research instrument designed on the basis of the classification that shares a number of characteristics with Oxford's (1990) Strategy Inventory for Language Learning but, in contrast to it, includes both Likert-scale and open-ended items. The findings of a pilot study which involved 80 English Department students demonstrate that although the tool requires considerable refinement, it provides a useful point of departure for future research into PLS

A New Technique for Finding Needles in Haystacks: A Geometric Approach to Distinguishing Between a New Source and Random Fluctuations

We propose a new test statistic based on a score process for determining the statistical significance of a putative signal that may be a small perturbation to a noisy experimental background. We derive the reference distribution for this score test statistic; it has an elegant geometrical interpretation as well as broad applicability. We illustrate the technique in the context of a model problem from high-energy particle physics. Monte Carlo experimental results confirm that the score test results in a significantly improved rate of signal detection.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Predicting language learners' grades in the L1, L2, L3 and L4: the effect of some psychological and sociocognitive variables

This study of 89 Flemish high-school students' grades for L1 (Dutch), L2 (French), L3 (English) and L4 (German) investigates the effects of three higher-level personality dimensions (psychoticism, extraversion, neuroticism), one lower-level personality dimension (foreign language anxiety) and sociobiographical variables (gender, social class) on the participants' language grades. Analyses of variance revealed no significant effects of the higher-level personality dimensions on grades. Participants with high levels of foreign language anxiety obtained significantly lower grades in the L2 and L3. Gender and social class had no effect. Strong positive correlations between grades in the different languages could point to an underlying sociocognitive dimension. The implications of these findings are discussed

Adult beginner distance language learner perceptions and use of assignment feedback

This qualitative study examines perceptions and use of assignment feedback among adult beginner modern foreign language learners on higher education distance learning courses. A survey of responses to feedback on assignments by 43 Open University students on beginner language courses in Spanish, French, and German indicated that respondents can be classified into three groups: those who use feedback strategically by integrating it into the learning process and comparing it with, for example, informal feedback from interaction with native speakers, those who take note of feedback, but seem not to use it strategically, and those who appear to take little account of either marks or feedback. The first group proved to be the most confident and most likely to maintain their motivation in the longer term. The conclusion discusses some of the pedagogical and policy implications of the findings

Reductions in cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory mortality following the national Irish smoking ban: Interrupted time-series analysis

Copyright @ 2013 Stallings-Smith et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Previous studies have shown decreases in cardiovascular mortality following the implementation of comprehensive smoking bans. It is not known whether cerebrovascular or respiratory mortality decreases post-ban. On March 29, 2004, the Republic of Ireland became the first country in the world to implement a national workplace smoking ban. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of this policy on all-cause and cause-specific, non-trauma mortality. Methods: A time-series epidemiologic assessment was conducted, utilizing Poisson regression to examine weekly age and gender-standardized rates for 215,878 non-trauma deaths in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years. The study period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2007, with a post-ban follow-up of 3.75 years. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence. Results: Following ban implementation, an immediate 13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-0.99), a 26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63-0.88), a 32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54-0.85), and a 38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46-0.83) mortality was observed. Post-ban reductions in IHD, stroke, and COPD mortalities were seen in ages ≥65 years, but not in ages 35-64 years. COPD mortality reductions were found only in females (RR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.32-0.70). Post-ban annual trend reductions were not detected for any smoking-related causes of death. Unadjusted estimates indicate that 3,726 (95% CI: 2,305-4,629) smoking-related deaths were likely prevented post-ban. Mortality decreases were primarily due to reductions in passive smoking. Conclusions: The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebrovascular and respiratory causes

Assessing the conservation value of waterbodies: the example of the Loire floodplain (France)

In recent decades, two of the main management tools used to stem biodiversity erosion have been biodiversity monitoring and the conservation of natural areas. However, socio-economic pressure means that it is not usually possible to preserve the entire landscape, and so the rational prioritisation of sites has become a crucial issue. In this context, and because floodplains are one of the most threatened ecosystems, we propose a statistical strategy for evaluating conservation value, and used it to prioritise 46 waterbodies in the Loire floodplain (France). We began by determining a synthetic conservation index of fish communities (Q) for each waterbody. This synthetic index includes a conservation status index, an origin index, a rarity index and a richness index. We divided the waterbodies into 6 clusters with distinct structures of the basic indices. One of these clusters, with high Q median value, indicated that 4 waterbodies are important for fish biodiversity conservation. Conversely, two clusters with low Q median values included 11 waterbodies where restoration is called for. The results picked out high connectivity levels and low abundance of aquatic vegetation as the two main environmental characteristics of waterbodies with high conservation value. In addition, assessing the biodiversity and conservation value of territories using our multi-index approach plus an a posteriori hierarchical classification methodology reveals two major interests: (i) a possible geographical extension and (ii) a multi-taxa adaptation

Initial Multidisciplinary Design and Analysis Framework

Within the Supersonics (SUP) Project of the Fundamental Aeronautics Program (FAP), an initial multidisciplinary design & analysis framework has been developed. A set of low- and intermediate-fidelity discipline design and analysis codes were integrated within a multidisciplinary design and analysis framework and demonstrated on two challenging test cases. The first test case demonstrates an initial capability to design for low boom and performance. The second test case demonstrates rapid assessment of a well-characterized design. The current system has been shown to greatly increase the design and analysis speed and capability, and many future areas for development were identified. This work has established a state-of-the-art capability for immediate use by supersonic concept designers and systems analysts at NASA, while also providing a strong base to build upon for future releases as more multifidelity capabilities are developed and integrated