Uncertainty about the Persistence of Cost-Push Shocks and the Optimal Reaction of the Monetary Authority.

In this paper we formalize the uncertainty about the persistence of cost-push shocks using an open economy optimal control model with Markov regime-switching and robust control. The latter is used in only one of the regimes producing relatively more persistent cost-push shocks in that regime. Conditional on being in the regime with relatively less persistence, we obtain two main results: a) underestimating the probability of switching to the regime with relatively more persistent cost-push shocks causes higher welfare losses than its overestimation; and b) the welfare losses associated with either underestimation or overestimation of such probability increase with the size of the penalty on inflation deviations from its target. Keywords: Model uncertainty, Robustness, Markov regime-switching, Monetary policy, Inflation targeting.Model uncertainty, Robustness, Markov regime-switching, Monetary policy, Inflation targeting

Estimasi Bangkitan Perjalanan Penduduk Perumahan Di Kelurahan Dadok Tunggul Hitam Kota Padang

Transportation problems appear as a result of the rapid population growth rate, creating housing areas and community activities, which generate trips. This study aims to determine the trip generated by the residential areas in the Village of Dadok Tunggul Hitam consisting Green Arya, Rumah Idaman Wisma Lestari, Perumdam, Permata Dadok, and Trisandi Indah settlements. These residential areas change the land function that would later cause problems. The community activities generate trips toward the city center. The secondary data were collected from the government agencies and the primary data were collected through direct Surveys. Variables used in this study are the size of the household, car ownership, income level, and the number of working family members. The data were then analyzed using descriptive techniques and linier regression method. The results show the number of trips produced each day and factors that influence the trips generated

Monopole and Dyon Solutions in AdS space

We consider monopole and dyon classical solutions of the Yang-Mills-Higgs system coupled to gravity in asymptotically anti-de Sitter space. We discuss both singular and regular solutions to the second order equations of motion showing that singular Wu-Yang like dyons can be found, the resulting metric being of the Reissner-N\"ordstrom type (with cosmological constant). Concerning regular solutions, we analyze the conditions under which they can be constructed discussing, for vanishing coupling constant, the main distinctive features related to the anti-de Sitter asymptotic condition; in particular, we find in this case that the v.e.v. of the Higgs scalar, $|\vec H(\infty)|$, should be quantized in units of the natural mass scale $1/e r_0$ (related to the cosmological constant) according to $|\vec H(\infty)|^2 = m(m+1) (e r_0 )^{-2}$, with $m \in Z$.Comment: 14 pages, latex file, no figure

Understanding the Relationship Between Northern Bobwhite Mortality and Raptor Migration in South Texas (Poster Abstract)

The fall and spring migration routes of numerous raptor species converge in the Rio Grande Plains ecoregion of Texas resulting in a high seasonal diversity and abundance of raptors. Raptors are believed to be an important source of mortality for northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus). Because of the economic importance of bobwhites and the high concentration of raptors in south Texas, we investigated the relationship between bobwhite mortality and raptor abundance. Our objectives were to document raptor diversity and abundance, correlate bobwhite mortality with raptor abundance, and correlate ambient temperature with raptor abundance.We monitored radiomarked bobwhites (n = 164) biweekly during September–February 2000–01 in Brooks County, Texas. We conducted raptor surveys bimonthly during October–February 2000–01 between 1100 and 1500 hours along a 24-km road. We documented a total of 96 bobwhite mortalities. Raptors accounted for 16 % of the mortalities, with 43% by mammals, 13% unknown predator, and 28% hunter. We observed a total of 310 raptors, representing 15 identified species. Red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) and white-tailed hawk (Buteo albicaudatus) comprised a large percentage (38%) of the raptors observed. A weak correlation (r = - 0.11) existed between raptor abundance and total bobwhite mortality. A stronger correlation (r = 0.86) existed between Accipter abundance and raptor depredation of bobwhites. We detected a relatively strong negative correlation (r = -0.65) between raptor abundance and ambient temperature. Our limited data suggest that general raptor abundance may not be a strong indicator of actual bobwhite mortality, and that it may be erroneous to infer that a high abundance of raptors results in a high mortality of bobwhites. Understanding the relationship between bobwhite and raptors will involve determining species-specific migration timing and numbers

Pregnant Women Empowerment in Improving Knowledge and Attitude on Delivery Method at Private Clinics in Medan City

Introduction : Pregnant women want a smooth labor and give birth to a baby perfectly. Practically, the way of delivery is 80% through vaginal birth and 20% labor caesarean section (CS). However, secular trend towards increased rates of labor CS almost worldwide. Safe delivery is the right of pregnant women, the empowerment of the training and mentoring of pregnant women to the labor elections with an indication of the effort to reduce non-medical CS needs to be done to improve the knowledge, attitudes choose childbirth. Material & Methode : The study used a mixed method research method is quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative : quasi-experimental design with a sample of  25 pregnant women in the intervention group and 25 pregnant women in the control group. Qualitative : Rapid Assessment Procedure (RAP) and the analysis of the theme. Statistic Before the paired t test bivariat and not pairing done, first performed a test average of variable data. If the data still isn't normal (p value < 0.050) Although data transformation has been done by way of a squared, diakar, and Log 10 then test the test become bivariat non parametric. In this research analysis used is the bivariat Wilcoxon. Results : Effect of empowering one for knowledge was 12.28 into 12.88 with p <0.001 and empowerment 2, namely 12.88 into 15.56 with p value <0.0001. Effect of empowerment one of the attitude that was 11.92 into 12.35 with p <0.009, empowerment 2 was 12.35 into 15.28 with p value <0.0001. changes in the value of the average knowledge before (pre-test 1 ^) and after (post-test 1 ^) is 10.08 into 11.56 with p <0.0001, changes in the value of the average knowledge before (pre-test 1 ^) and after (post-test 1 ^) was 10.08 into 11.56 with p <0.0001, the average value change attitudes before (pre-test 1 ^) 9.84 and after (post-test 1 ^) which became 11.72 with p value <0.0001. Effect of empowerment for mothers childbirth obtained significance value (p = 0.001), with Exp (B) 14.636 means that the intervention group had an opportunity to choose a delivery vaginal birth was14 times greater compared with pregnant women in the control group. The quantitative findings are supported by the findings of qualitative expressions of pleasure and empowerment lucky followed by training and mentoring. Recommendation : Pregnant women feel the direct benefits of a normal delivery. Policies to adopt and use methods of empowerment with training and mentoring in the health center and Maternity Clinic. Keywords: Pregnant women, Empowerment, Knowledge and Attitude, Childbirth

Estudio del marketing estratégico para el emprendimiento. El caso de estudio de la zona rural de Manta en Ecuador

La presente investigación se enfoca en un estudio de marketing para favorecer el emprendimiento rural en el Ecuador, desde el enfoque del marketing estratégico que desarrolla actividades asociadas con las necesidades del mercado, los segmentos, la competencia interna y externa, la innovación y la mejora continua, y desde el entorno de las competencias emprendedoras, direccionadas a la formación y el uso de ambientes digitales para la generación de emprendimiento productivo y sostenible en el territorio rural. Se ha determinado que Ecuador es uno de los países latinoamericanos con la Tasa de Actividad Emprendedora Temprana más alta (36,2%), tan solo superado por Chile. De la misma forma, es notable que el 42,4% de los emprendimientos se generen en las zonas rurales del país. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de la presente tesis doctoral consiste en establecer un análisis propositivo del emprendimiento rural, desde el enfoque del marketing estratégico, que fomente el desarrollo sostenible de los emprendedores de las zonas rurales de Manta en Ecuador. En este sentido, la investigación se desarrolló mediante una metodología con enfoque mixto, que consistió en la aplicación de entrevistas dirigidas a los emprendedores rurales de la ciudad de Manta (Oferta). Asimismo, se realizaron encuestas dirigidas a los consumidores para analizar su comportamiento (Demanda) y tendencias respecto a los productos ofertados por los emprendimientos rurales. A partir del estudio metodológico realizado, se pudo generar una propuesta de planificación, desarrollo, aplicación y evaluación de un programa de marketing estratégico digital para el crecimiento sostenible del emprendimiento rural en el Ecuador

Mesozooplankton community structure during summer months in the bay of Cádiz.

Mesozooplankton organisms (>250 μm) were sampled at two stations (inner and outer Bay) in the Bay of Cádiz between May and July 2008. Samples were analysed by means of a semi-automated technique in order to give a preliminary view of the mesoozooplankton community structure in the Bay, based on taxonomic diversity and biomass distribution among size classes. The abundance of organisms increased from May to July in accordance with the increase in temperature and Chlorophyll a (Chla) concentrations. Abundances were higher in the outer Bay station, where Chla concentrations are greater and the water column is more stable. The community changed from being meroplankton- to holoplankton-based due to an increase of Calanoida and especially Cladocera individuals (mainly Penilia avirostris), which are known to peak acutely in the summer. The analysis of Normalised Biomass-Size spectra revealed fairly steep slopes (average -1.3) and relatively high departures from steady state (r2 = 0.8 – 0.94), expectable in a coastal system such as the Bay of Cádiz were disturbance factors are introduced from benthic and tidal processes, together with anthropogenic pressure