Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

From local monitoring to a broad‐scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease the reliability of this type of analysis. In the present study, we performed a PVA of the whole western European population (France, Portugal, and Spain) of the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata), in which we thoroughly explored the consequences of uncertainty in population processes and parameters on PVA predictions. First, we estimated key vital rates (survival, fertility, recruitment, and dispersal rates) using monitoring, ringing, and bibliographic data from the period 1990-2009 from 12 populations found throughout the studied geographic range. Second, we evaluated the uncertainty about model structure (i.e., the assumed processes that govern individual fates and population dynamics) by comparing the observed growth rates of the studied populations with model predictions for the same period. Third, using the model structures suggested in the previous step, we assessed the viability of both the local populations and the overall population. Finally, we analyzed the effects of model and parameter uncertainty on PVA predictions. Our results strongly support the idea that all local populations in western Europe belong to a single, spatially structured population operating as a source-sink system, whereby the populations in the south of the Iberian Peninsula act as sources and, thanks to dispersal, sustain all other local populations, which would otherwise decline. Predictions regarding population dynamics varied considerably, and models assuming more constrained dispersal predicted more pessimistic population trends than models assuming greater dispersal. Model predictions accounting for parameter uncertainty revealed a marked increase in the risk of population declines over the next 50 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated that adult and pre‐adult survival are the chief vital rates regulating these populations, and thus, the conservation efforts aimed at improving these survival rates should be strengthened in order to guarantee the long‐term viability of the European populations of this endangered species. Overall, the study provides a framework for the implementation of multi‐site PVAs and highlights the importance of dispersal processes in shaping the population dynamics of long‐lived birds distributed across heterogeneous landscapes

An integrated whole genome analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis reveals insights into relationship between its genome, transcriptome and methylome.

Human tuberculosis disease (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is a complex disease, with a spectrum of outcomes. Genomic, transcriptomic and methylation studies have revealed differences between Mtb lineages, likely to impact on transmission, virulence and drug resistance. However, so far no studies have integrated sequence-based genomic, transcriptomic and methylation characterisation across a common set of samples, which is critical to understand how DNA sequence and methylation affect RNA expression and, ultimately, Mtb pathogenesis. Here we perform such an integrated analysis across 22 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates, representing ancient (lineage 1) and modern (lineages 2 and 4) strains. The results confirm the presence of lineage-specific differential gene expression, linked to specific SNP-based expression quantitative trait loci: with 10 eQTLs involving SNPs in promoter regions or transcriptional start sites; and 12 involving potential functional impairment of transcriptional regulators. Methylation status was also found to have a role in transcription, with evidence of differential expression in 50 genes across lineage 4 samples. Lack of methylation was associated with three novel variants in mamA, likely to cause loss of function of this enzyme. Overall, our work shows the relationship of DNA sequence and methylation to RNA expression, and differences between ancient and modern lineages. Further studies are needed to verify the functional consequences of the identified mechanisms of gene expression regulation

Higher education students’ achievement emotions and their antecedents in e-learning amid COVID-19 pandemic: A multi-country survey

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a wide range of negative consequences for higher education students. We explored the generalizability of the control-value theory of achievement emotions for e-learning, focusing on their antecedents. We involved 17019 higher education students from 13 countries, who completed an online survey during the first wave of the pandemic. A structural equation model revealed that proximal antecedents (e-learning self-efficacy, computer self-efficacy) mediated the relation between environmental antecedents (cognitive and motivational quality of the task) and positive and negative achievement emotions, with some exceptions. The model was invariant across country, area of study, and gender. The rates of achievement emotions varied according to these same factors. Beyond their theoretical relevance, these findings could be the basis for policy recommendations to support stakeholders in coping with the challenges of e-learning and the current and future sequelae of the pandemic.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Predation and infanticide influence ideal free choice by a parrot occupying heterogeneous tropical habitats

The ideal free distribution (IFD) predicts that organisms will disperse to sites that maximize their fitness based on availability of resources. Habitat heterogeneity underlies resource variation and influences spatial variation in demography and the distribution of populations. We relate nest site productivity at multiple scales measured over a decade to habitat quality in a box-nesting population of Forpus passerinus (green-rumped parrotlets) in Venezuela to examine critical IFD assumptions. Variation in reproductive success at the local population and neighborhood scales had a much larger influence on productivity (fledglings per nest box per year) than nest site or female identity. Habitat features were reliable cues of nest site quality. Nest sites with less vegetative cover produced greater numbers of fledglings than sites with more cover. However, there was also a competitive cost to nesting in high-quality, low-vegetative cover nest boxes, as these sites experienced the most infanticide events. In the lowland local population, water depth and cover surrounding nest sites were related with F. passerinus productivity. Low vegetative cover and deeper water were associated with lower predation rates, suggesting that predation could be a primary factor driving habitat selection patterns. Parrotlets also demonstrated directional dispersal. Pairs that changed nest sites were more likely to disperse from poor-quality nest sites to high-quality nest sites rather than vice versa, and juveniles were more likely to disperse to, or remain in, the more productive of the two local populations. Parrotlets exhibited three characteristics fundamental to the IFD: habitat heterogeneity within and between local populations, reliable habitat cues to productivity, and active dispersal to sites of higher fitness

Age before beauty? Relationships between fertilization success and age-dependent ornaments in barn swallows

When males become more ornamented and reproduce more successfully as they grow older, phenotypic correlations between ornament exaggeration and reproductive success can be confounded with age effects in cross-sectional studies, and thus say relatively little about sexual selection on these traits. This is exemplified here in a correlative study of male fertilization success in a large colony of American barn swallows (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster). Previous studies of this species have indicated that two sexually dimorphic traits, tail length and ventral plumage coloration, are positively correlated with male fertilization success, and a mechanism of sexual selection by female choice has been invoked. However, these studies did not control for potential age-related variation in trait expression. Here, we show that male fertilization success was positively correlated with male tail length but not with plumage coloration. We also show that 1-year-old males had shorter tails and lower fertilization success than older males. This age effect accounted for much of the covariance between tail length and fertilization success. Still, there was a positive relationship between tail length and fertilization success among older males. But as this group consisted of males from different age classes, an age effect may be hidden in this relationship as well. Our data also revealed a longitudinal increase in both tail length and fertilization success for individual males. We argue that age-dependent ornament expression and reproductive performance in males complicate inferences about female preferences and sexual selection

Phenotypic Heterogeneity and the Evolution of Bacterial Life Cycles

Most bacteria live in colonies, where they often express different cell types. The ecological significance of these cell types and their evolutionary origin are often unknown. Here, we study the evolution of cell differentiation in the context of surface colonization. We particularly focus on the evolution of a ‘sticky’ cell type that is required for surface attachment, but is costly to express. The sticky cells not only facilitate their own attachment, but also that of non-sticky cells. Using individual-based simulations, we show that surface colonization rapidly evolves and in most cases leads to phenotypic heterogeneity, in which sticky and non-sticky cells occur side by side on the surface. In the presence of regulation, cell differentiation leads to a remarkable set of bacterial life cycles, in which cells alternate between living in the liquid and living on the surface. The dominant life stage is formed by the surface-attached colony that shows many complex features: colonies reproduce via fission and by producing migratory propagules; cells inside the colony divide labour; and colonies can produce filaments to facilitate expansion. Overall, our model illustrates how the evolution of an adhesive cell type goes hand in hand with the evolution of complex bacterial life cycles

Violencia doméstica en Sarapiquí: periodo enero-julio 2002

Convenio UNA-REGINA-LA SERENAEn el marco del proyecto “Capacitación para el Desarrollo Regional Sostenible” hemos realizado el presente informe preliminar de Violencia Doméstica para el periodo comprendido de Enero a Julio del 2002, del cantón de Sarapiquí, ubicado en la provincia de Heredia. Los objetivos principales en este trabajo radican en conocer las denuncias de Violencia Doméstica que se hallan en el Cantón y su distribución distrital además de otras características de las víctimas y sus victimarios tales como: edad, estado civil y nacionalidad. Otro aspecto importante es que este documento nos da una visión más amplia sobre el problema que nos aqueja y esto nos permitirá priorizar y detallar según lo analizado la problemática real de la sociedad sarapiqueña lo cual servirá para la toma de decisiones y el desarrollo de las capacitaciones en términos de violencia doméstica para un bienestar real de los distritos, sus ciudades y asentamientos. El presente informe llevará a cabo un análisis estadístico por mes y un análisis comparativo de la información obtenida, todo lo anterior mediante cuadros estadísticos y gráficos representativos de los mismos.Within the framework of the project "Training for Sustainable Regional Development" we have made this preliminary report on Domestic Violence for the period from January to July 2002, in the canton of Sarapiqui, located in the province of Heredia. The main objectives of this work are to know the complaints of domestic violence found in the canton and its district distribution, as well as other characteristics of the victims and their perpetrators such as: age, marital status and nationality. Another important aspect is that this document gives us a broader vision of the problem that afflicts us and this will allow us to prioritize and detail the real problems of the Sarapiquan society, which will serve for decision making and the development of training in terms of domestic violence for the real welfare of the districts, their cities and settlements. This report will carry out a statistical analysis by month and a comparative analysis of the information obtained, all of the above by means of statistical tables and graphs representative of the same.Universidad de Regina, CanadáUniversidad La Serena ChileDecanato Facultad de Ciencias Sociale