The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

Greenland ice core “signal” characteristics: An expanded view of climate change

The last millenium of Earth history is of particular interest because it documents the environmental complexities of both natural variability and anthropogenic activity. We have analyzed the major ions contained in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core from the present to ∼674 A.D. to yield an environmental reconstruction for this period that includes a description of nitrogen and sulfur cycling, volcanic emissions, sea salt and terrestrial influences. We have adapted and extended mathematical procedures for extracting sporadic (e.g., volcanic) events, secular trends, and periodicities found in the data sets. Finally, by not assuming that periodic components (signals) were “stationary” and by utilizing evolutionary spectral analysis, we were able to reveal periodic processes in the climate system which change in frequency, “turn on,” and “turn off” with other climate transitions such as\u27that between the little ice age and the medieval warm period

Pressure studies of impurity levels in AlxGa1-xAs

doi: 10.1088/0268-1242/4/4/033The authors present a study of the deep and shallow donor levels under hydrostatic pressure. The shallow levels follow the conduction bands, while the deep levels are strongly sublinear with pressure. The temperature dependence of the intensities and energies is used to obtain an energy level diagram of the deep levels at high pressures.This work was supported by theU S Army under grant number DAAL03-86K-0083, the US Department of Energy under grant number DE-AC02 84ER45048, and Amoco Corporation. M Chandrasekhar is a n A P Sloan Foundation Fellow

The Role of National Debts in the Determination of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate

An intertemporal optimization model is developed to examine the determinants of the long-run nominal yen-dollar exchange rate in the presence of national debts. The model is tested empirically using data from Japan and the USA. The proposed theoretical specification is well supported by the data and shows that relative national debts as well as monetary and financial factors may play a significant role in the determination of the long-run nominal exchange rate between the yen and the dollar

Ca2+-binding protein 2 inhibits Ca2+-channel inactivation in mouse inner hair cells

Ca2+ channels mediate excitation-secretion coupling and show little inactivation at sensory ribbon synapses, enabling reliable synaptic information transfer during sustained stimulation. Studies of Ca2+-channel complexes in HEK293 cells indicated that Ca2+-binding proteins (CaBPs) antagonize their calmodulin-dependent inactivation. Although human mutations affecting CABP2 were shown to cause hearing impairment, the role of CaBP2 in auditory function and the precise disease mechanism remained enigmatic. Here, we disrupted CaBP2 in mice and showed that CaBP2 is required for sound encoding at inner hair cell synapses, likely by suppressing Ca2+-channel inactivation. We propose that the number of activatable Ca2+ channels at the active zone is reduced when CaBP2 is lacking, as is likely the case with the newly described human CABP2 mutation

Greenland Ice Core Greenland Ice Core Signal Characteristics: An Expanded View of Climate Change

The last millenium of Earth history is of particular interest because it documents the environmental complexities of both natural variability and anthropogenic activity. We have analyzed the major ions contained in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core from the present to ∼674 A.D. to yield an environmental reconstruction for this period that includes a description of nitrogen and sulfur cycling, volcanic emissions, sea salt and terrestrial influences. We have adapted and extended mathematical procedures for extracting sporadic (e.g., volcanic) events, secular trends, and periodicities found in the data sets. Finally, by not assuming that periodic components (signals) were “stationary” and by utilizing evolutionary spectral analysis, we were able to reveal periodic processes in the climate system which change in frequency, “turn on,” and “turn off” with other climate transitions such as that between the little ice age and the medieval warm period

Record Drilling Depth Struck in Greenland

On July 1, 1993, after 5 years of drilling, the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP2) penetrated several meters of silty ice and reached bedrock at a depth of 3053.4 m. It then penetrated 1.5 m into the bedrock, producing the deepest ice core ever recovered (Figure 1). In July 1992, a nearby European ice coring effort, the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP), reached an ice depth of 3028.8 m, providing more than 250,000 years of record. Comparisons between these ice core records have already demonstrated the remarkable reproducibility of the upper ∼90% of the records unparalleled view of climatic and environmental change

The Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Depth-age Scale: Methods and Results

The Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) depth-age scale is presented based on a multiparameter continuous count approach, to a depth of 2800 m, using a systematic combination of parameters that have never been used to this extent before. The ice at 2800 m is dated at 110,000 years B.P. with an estimated error ranging from 1 to 10% in the top 2500 m of the core and averaging 20% between 2500 and 2800 m. Parameters used to date the core include visual stratigraphy, oxygen isotopic ratios of the ice, electrical conductivity measurements, laser-light scattering from dust, volcanic signals, and major ion chemistry. GISP2 ages for major climatic events agree with independent ages based on varve chronologies, calibrated radiocarbon dates, and other techniques within the combined uncertainties. Good agreement also is obtained with Greenland Ice Core Project ice core dates and with the SPECMAP marine timescale after correlation through the δ18O of O2. Although the core is deformed below 2800 m and the continuity of the record is unclear, we attempted to date this section of the core on the basis of the laser-light scattering of dust in the ice

Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators, and financial data. Almost all indicators are found to improve short-run growth forecasts whereas the results for four-quarter-ahead growth forecasts and the prediction of recession probabilities in general are mixed. We can confirm the result that an indicator suited to improve growth forecasts does not necessarily help to produce more accurate recession forecasts. Only composite leading indicators perform generally well in both forecasting exercises