Stochastic gain in population dynamics

We introduce an extension of the usual replicator dynamics to adaptive learning rates. We show that a population with a dynamic learning rate can gain an increased average payoff in transient phases and can also exploit external noise, leading the system away from the Nash equilibrium, in a reasonance-like fashion. The payoff versus noise curve resembles the signal to noise ratio curve in stochastic resonance. Seen in this broad context, we introduce another mechanism that exploits fluctuations in order to improve properties of the system. Such a mechanism could be of particular interest in economic systems.Comment: accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Let

Late Paleocene-middle Eocene benthic foraminifera on a Pacific seamount (Allison Guyot, ODP Site 865): Greenhouse climate and superimposed hyperthermal events

We investigated the response of late Paleocene-middle Eocene (~60-37.5 Ma) benthic foraminiferal assemblages to long-term climate change and hyperthermal events including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 865 on Allison Guyot, a seamount in the Mid-Pacific Mountains. Seamounts are isolated deep-sea environments where enhanced current systems interrupt bentho-pelagic coupling, and fossil assemblages from such settings have been little evaluated. Assemblages at Site 865 are diverse and dominated by cylindrical calcareous taxa with complex apertures, an extinct group which probably lived infaunally. Dominance of an infaunal morphogroup is unexpected in a highly oligotrophic setting, but these forms may have been shallow infaunal suspension feeders, which were ecologically successful on the current-swept seamount. The magnitude of the PETM extinction at Site 865 was similar to other sites globally, but lower diversity postextinction faunas at this location were affected by ocean acidification as well as changes in current regime, which might have led to increased nutrient supply through trophic focusing. A minor hyperthermal saw less severe effects of changes in current regime, with no evidence for carbonate dissolution. Although the relative abundance of infaunal benthic foraminifera has been used as a proxy for surface productivity through bentho-pelagic coupling, we argue that this proxy can be used only in the absence of changes in carbonate saturation and current-driven biophysical linking

Bighorn Basin Coring Project (BBCP): a continental perspective on early Paleogene hyperthermals

During the summer of 2011, the Bighorn Basin Coring Project (BBCP) recovered over 900m of overlapping core from 3 different sites in late Paleocene to early Eocene fluvial deposits of northwestern Wyoming. BBCP cores are being used to develop high-resolution proxy records of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) hyperthermal events. These events are short-term, large magnitude global warming events associated with extreme perturbations to the earth’s carbon cycle. Although the PETM and ETM2 occurred ~55–52 million years ago, they are analogous in many ways to modern anthropogenic changes to the carbon cycle. By applying various sedimentological, geochemical, and palynological methods to the cores, we hope to better understand what caused these events, study the biogeochemical and ecological feedbacks that operated during them, and reveal precisely how they impacted continental environments. Core recovery was > 98% in all holes and most drilling was carried out without fluid additives, showing that continuous coring of continental smectitic deposits like these can be achieved with minimal risk of contamination to molecular biomarkers. Cores were processed in the Bremen Core Repository where the science team convened for 17 days to carry out data collection and sampling protocols similar to IODP projects. Initial results show that the weathered horizon extends to as much as ~30m below the surface and variations in magnetic susceptibility within the cores record an interplay between grain size and pedogenesis. Previous investigations of outcrops near the BBCP drill sites allow detailed evaluation of the effects of weathering on common proxy methods. Studies of lithofacies, organic geochemistry, stable isotope geochemistry, calibrated XRF core scanning, paleomagnetics, and palynology are underway and will represent the highest resolution and most integrated proxy records of the PETM from a continental setting yet known. An extensive outreach program is in place to capitalize on the educational value associated with the Bighorn Basin’s unusually complete record of Phanerozoic earth history

The Impact of Global Warming and Anoxia on Marine Benthic Community Dynamics: an Example from the Toarcian (Early Jurassic)

The Pliensbachian-Toarcian (Early Jurassic) fossil record is an archive of natural data of benthic community response to global warming and marine long-term hypoxia and anoxia. In the early Toarcian mean temperatures increased by the same order of magnitude as that predicted for the near future; laminated, organic-rich, black shales were deposited in many shallow water epicontinental basins; and a biotic crisis occurred in the marine realm, with the extinction of approximately 5% of families and 26% of genera. High-resolution quantitative abundance data of benthic invertebrates were collected from the Cleveland Basin (North Yorkshire, UK), and analysed with multivariate statistical methods to detect how the fauna responded to environmental changes during the early Toarcian. Twelve biofacies were identified. Their changes through time closely resemble the pattern of faunal degradation and recovery observed in modern habitats affected by anoxia. All four successional stages of community structure recorded in modern studies are recognised in the fossil data (i.e. Stage III: climax; II: transitional; I: pioneer; 0: highly disturbed). Two main faunal turnover events occurred: (i) at the onset of anoxia, with the extinction of most benthic species and the survival of a few adapted to thrive in low-oxygen conditions (Stages I to 0) and (ii) in the recovery, when newly evolved species colonized the re-oxygenated soft sediments and the path of recovery did not retrace of pattern of ecological degradation (Stages I to II). The ordination of samples coupled with sedimentological and palaeotemperature proxy data indicate that the onset of anoxia and the extinction horizon coincide with both a rise in temperature and sea level. Our study of how faunal associations co-vary with long and short term sea level and temperature changes has implications for predicting the long-term effects of “dead zones” in modern oceans

PEAT-CLSM : A Specific Treatment of Peatland Hydrology in the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model

Peatlands are poorly represented in global Earth system modeling frameworks. Here we add a peatland-specific land surface hydrology module (PEAT-CLSM) to the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) framework. The amended TOPMODEL approach of the original CLSM that uses topography characteristics to model catchment processes is discarded, and a peatland-specific model concept is realized in its place. To facilitate its utilization in operational GEOS efforts, PEAT-CLSM uses the basic structure of CLSM and the same global input data. Parameters used in PEAT-CLSM are based on literature data. A suite of CLSM and PEAT-CLSM simulations for peatland areas between 40 degrees N and 75 degrees N is presented and evaluated against a newly compiled data set of groundwater table depth and eddy covariance observations of latent and sensible heat fluxes in natural and seminatural peatlands. CLSM's simulated groundwater tables are too deep and variable, whereas PEAT-CLSM simulates a mean groundwater table depth of -0.20 m (snow-free unfrozen period) with moderate temporal fluctuations (standard deviation of 0.10 m), in significantly better agreement with in situ observations. Relative to an operational CLSM version that simply includes peat as a soil class, the temporal correlation coefficient is increased on average by 0.16 and reaches 0.64 for bogs and 0.66 for fens when driven with global atmospheric forcing data. In PEAT-CLSM, runoff is increased on average by 38% and evapotranspiration is reduced by 19%. The evapotranspiration reduction constitutes a significant improvement relative to eddy covariance measurements.Peer reviewe

The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database

This is the final version of the article. Available from European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record.Data availability. The data referenced in this manuscript are provided as Supplement Data Files 1 to 8. In the final version, these files will form DeepMIP database version 0.1 and will be accessible online via a citable DOI reference.The early Eocene (56 to 48 million years ago) is inferred to have been the most recent time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Global mean temperatures were also substantially warmer than those of the present day. As such, the study of early Eocene climate provides insight into how a super-warm Earth system behaves and offers an opportunity to evaluate climate models under conditions of high greenhouse gas forcing. The Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a systematic model–model and model–data intercomparison of three early Paleogene time slices: latest Paleocene, Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO). A previous article outlined the model experimental design for climate model simulations. In this article, we outline the methodologies to be used for the compilation and analysis of climate proxy data, primarily proxies for temperature and CO2. This paper establishes the protocols for a concerted and coordinated effort to compile the climate proxy records across a wide geographic range. The resulting climate “atlas” will be used to constrain and evaluate climate models for the three selected time intervals and provide insights into the mechanisms that control these warm climate states. We provide version 0.1 of this database, in anticipation that this will be expanded in subsequent publications.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)GNS Science Global Change through Time ProgrammeNational Science Foundation (NSF)KU Leuve

Paleogene Earth perturbations in the US Atlantic Coastal Plain (PEP-US): coring transects of hyperthermals to understand past carbon injections and ecosystem responses

The release of over 4500 Gt (gigatonnes) of carbon at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary provides the closest geological analog to modern anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The cause(s) of and responses to the resulting Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and attendant carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) remain enigmatic and intriguing despite over 30 years of intense study. CIE records from the deep sea are generally thin due to its short duration and slow sedimentation rates, and they are truncated due to corrosive bottom waters dissolving carbonate sediments. In contrast, PETM coastal plain sections along the US mid-Atlantic margin are thick, generally having an expanded record of the CIE. Drilling here presents an opportunity to study the PETM onset to a level of detail that could transform our understanding of this important event. Previous drilling in this region provided important insights, but existing cores are either depleted or contain stratigraphic gaps. New core material is needed for well-resolved marine climate records. To plan new drilling, members of the international scientific community attended a multi-staged, hybrid scientific drilling workshop in 2022 designed to maximize not only scientifically and demographically diverse participation but also to protect participants' health and safety during the global pandemic and to reduce our carbon footprint. The resulting plan identified 10 sites for drill holes that would penetrate the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) boundary, targeting the pre-onset excursion (POE), the CIE onset, the rapidly deposited Marlboro Clay that records a very thick CIE body, and other Eocene hyperthermals. The workshop participants developed several primary scientific objectives related to investigating the nature and the cause(s) of the CIE onset as well as the biotic effects of the PETM on the paleoshelf. Additional objectives focus on the evidence for widespread wildfires and changes in the hydrological cycle, shelf morphology, and sea level during the PETM as well as the desire to study both underlying K–Pg sediments and overlying post-Eocene records of extreme hyperthermal climate events. All objectives address our overarching research question: what was the Earth system response to a rapid carbon cycle perturbation?</p

Genetic Diversity among Ancient Nordic Populations

Using established criteria for work with fossil DNA we have analysed mitochondrial DNA from 92 individuals from 18 locations in Denmark ranging in time from the Mesolithic to the Medieval Age. Unequivocal assignment of mtDNA haplotypes was possible for 56 of the ancient individuals; however, the success rate varied substantially between sites; the highest rates were obtained with untouched, freshly excavated material, whereas heavy handling, archeological preservation and storage for many years influenced the ability to obtain authentic endogenic DNA. While the nucleotide diversity at two locations was similar to that among extant Danes, the diversity at four sites was considerably higher. This supports previous observations for ancient Britons. The overall occurrence of haplogroups did not deviate from extant Scandinavians, however, haplogroup I was significantly more frequent among the ancient Danes (average 13%) than among extant Danes and Scandinavians (∼2.5%) as well as among other ancient population samples reported. Haplogroup I could therefore have been an ancient Southern Scandinavian type “diluted” by later immigration events. Interestingly, the two Neolithic samples (4,200 YBP, Bell Beaker culture) that were typed were haplogroup U4 and U5a, respectively, and the single Bronze Age sample (3,300–3,500 YBP) was haplogroup U4. These two haplogroups have been associated with the Mesolithic populations of Central and Northern Europe. Therefore, at least for Southern Scandinavia, our findings do not support a possible replacement of a haplogroup U dominated hunter-gatherer population by a more haplogroup diverse Neolithic Culture

A proteomic survival predictor for COVID-19 patients in intensive care

Global healthcare systems are challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a need to optimize allocation of treatment and resources in intensive care, as clinically established risk assessments such as SOFA and APACHE II scores show only limited performance for predicting the survival of severely ill COVID-19 patients. Additional tools are also needed to monitor treatment, including experimental therapies in clinical trials. Comprehensively capturing human physiology, we speculated that proteomics in combination with new data-driven analysis strategies could produce a new generation of prognostic discriminators. We studied two independent cohorts of patients with severe COVID-19 who required intensive care and invasive mechanical ventilation. SOFA score, Charlson comorbidity index, and APACHE II score showed limited performance in predicting the COVID-19 outcome. Instead, the quantification of 321 plasma protein groups at 349 timepoints in 50 critically ill patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation revealed 14 proteins that showed trajectories different between survivors and non-survivors. A predictor trained on proteomic measurements obtained at the first time point at maximum treatment level (i.e. WHO grade 7), which was weeks before the outcome, achieved accurate classification of survivors (AUROC 0.81). We tested the established predictor on an independent validation cohort (AUROC 1.0). The majority of proteins with high relevance in the prediction model belong to the coagulation system and complement cascade. Our study demonstrates that plasma proteomics can give rise to prognostic predictors substantially outperforming current prognostic markers in intensive care