Unpacking ecosystem service bundles: towards predictive mapping of synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services

Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysical drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science. Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge

Prospective modelling of land use change in heterogeneous mountain region

International audienceThe Grenoble urban area, located in central French Alps, presents a large variety of physical and natural characteristics, resulting in contrasted heterogeneous landscapes. This territory is subject to rapid changes, including fast-paced urban and infrastructure development, raising a number of environmental and planning issues (Haida et al., 2015; Körner and Ohsawa, 2005; Tasser and Tappeiner, 2002; Zimmermann et al., 2010).The ESNET project aims to model landscape futures by 2040 in response to prospective socio-economic and climate changes, with the double aim of assessing changes in ecosystem services and providing stakeholders with relevant information on environmental issues in future planning exercises. More specifically, this study proposes to: develop scenarios of landscape changes, simulate the land use changes using a spatial explicit support, analyze land use projections and associated impacts on Ecosystem Services. Land change scenarios.This study relies on a downscaling of the "Mountain 2040" prospective scenarios produced by the Rhône-Alpes region. These were adapted to the study area combining stakeholder expert knowledge and planning documents. Three contrasted scenarios were retained: The "Business as usual" scenario is based on the main planning document SCoT (Territorial Coherence Scheme) that determines for groups of municipalities a common project for urban planning, housing, transport and business and retail areas; The "Rewilding" scenario, where strong environmental policy leads to extensive conservation of natural and mountain spaces, and urban development and business activities are concentrated in the valleys; The "Liberal" scenario, where constraints on economic activities are relaxed, a few mountain resorts are turned into recreation parks while less attractive areas are abandoned.Scenario narratives were translated into land use change rules quantified using planning documents, expert knowledge, and stakeholder expertise. Land use change modelling.We developed three models to project land use by 2040. First, we used the Dinamica probabilistic and spatialized platform to simulate urban sprawl. In all scenarios urban sprawl responds to proximity to existing built-up areas, distance to roads, elevation and slope. Scenarios then differ in their rates and constraints to urban growth. Second, we developed a GIS-based drop succession model. Crop multi-annual successions were defined using moderate resolution images MODIS for the 2008-2012 period. We then defined changes in crop successions for each scenario using expert knowledge and agronomic prospective scenarios (Mora, 2008).Third, we developed a GIS-based model for agricultural abandonment, encroachment and reforestation. Spatial pattern and rates for these changes were defined based on observed data from databases of the French Geographic/Forestry National Institutes and expert knowledge.Projections by each of these three sub-models were combined to produce a projected land use map for each scenarios.Impacts of changes on landscapes and Ecosystem Services.Land use projections for the three scenarios highlighted several key features: the magnitude of urban growth, especially around Grenoble area and the Gresivaudan valley. This dynamics worsens already existing environmental problems such as air pollution, pressure on agricultural land, and connectivity between natural areas across the three main mountain ranges; strengthening of ecological connectivity at the expense of agriculture. Intensive cropping areas are particularly sensitive and transform to more diverse local agriculture. This dynamics is favourable for forest-based and regulation ecosystem services, at the expense of economic development. land abandonment and reforestation of low production and conversely overexploitation of attractive and profitable farming areas. Abandoned land will be under favourable protection status, whereas other areas such as recreation hotspots concentrate major environmental impacts including in fragile high mountain habitats.Developing such studies in direct interaction with stakeholders is a fundamental challenge to mainstream ecosystems services into land planning (Opdam et al., 2015 ; Ahern et al., 2014)Ahern, J., Cilliers, S., Niemelä, J., 2014. The concept of ecosystem services in adaptive urban planning and design: A framework for supporting innovation. Landsc. Urban Plan. 125, 254–259. Haida, C., Rüdisser, J., Tappeiner, U., 2015. Ecosystem services in mountain regions: experts’ perceptions and research intensity. Reg Env. Change 1–16. doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0759-4Körner, C., Ohsawa, M., 2005. Mountain Systems. Chapter 24, in: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being. Washington DC.Mora, O., 2008. Les nouvelles ruralités à l’horizon 2030, Quae. ed, Update Sciences and Technologies.Opdam, P., Coninx, I., Dewulf, A., Steingröver, E., Vos, C., van der Wal, M., 2015. Framing ecosystem services: Affecting behaviour of actors in collaborative landscape planning? Land Use Policy 46, 223–231.Tasser, E., Tappeiner, U., 2002. Impact of land use changes on mountain vegetation. Appl. Veg. Sci. 5, 173–184. Zimmermann, P., Tasser, E., Leitinger, G., Tappeiner, U., 2010. Effects of land-use and land-cover pattern on landscape-scale biodiversity in the European Alps. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 139, 13–22. </p

Landscape-scale modeling of agricultural land use for the quantification of ecosystem services

International audienceAgricultural land is strongly involved in the provision of ecosystem services given its spatial extent and impacts of agriculture on ecosystem functioning. Therefore, mapping ecosystem services require spatially explicit data on agricultural land uses. However, available data on agricultural land use usually have coarse spatial and temporal resolution, thus contributing significantly to uncertainties in ecosystem services quantification. Our goal is to develop an approach that produces high-resolution data on agricultural land uses. We propose a remote sensing approach using freely available MODIS images coupled with RapidEye images. Based on the phenological specificities of the different crops, we produced annual maps of agricultural land uses. We tested this approach over the spatially heterogeneous and mountainous region of Grenoble, France, where we mapped agricultural successions over 5 years. Maps produced at the scale of the agricultural parcel describe agricultural land uses through 17 classes. Our results suggest that coupling MODIS and RapidEye data can be used to map agricultural land use at high temporal and spatial resolution even in complex mountain landscapes. The comparison of the agricultural production service estimated by our method and from the Corine Land Cover database highlights the value of incorporating interannual variability in agricultural land use. This will also be facilitated in the future by the availability of new products from Sentinel 2

Analyse des dynamiques paysagères dans le bassin de vie de Grenoble entre 1998 et 2009

La résolution des données spatiales généralement utilisées pour la cartographie des services écosystémiques apparaît souvent trop grossière pour les analyses à des échelles locales. Dans cet article, une méthode est proposée pour mieux prendre en compte l’occupation du sol à une résolution spatiale et temporelle fine, en incluant les successions culturales. Utilisée pour l'analyse des dynamiques paysagères observées autour du bassin de vie de Grenoble, cette méthode a permis de produire une base de données très précises pour mieux décrire l'occupation et l'usage des sols, et ainsi améliorer significativement les évaluations de service écosystémiques

Mapping ecosystem services bundles in a heterogeneous mountain region

International audienceRecent institutional and policy frameworks prescribe the incorporation of ecosystem services (ES) into land use management and planning, favouring co-production of ES assessments by stakeholders, land planners and scientists. Incorporating ES into land management and planning requires models to map and analyze ES. Also, because ES do not vary independently, many operational issues ultimately relate to the mitigation of ES trade-offs, so that multiple ES and their interactions need to be considered. Using a highly accurate LULC database for the Grenoble urban region (French Alps), we mapped twelve ES using a range of models of varied complexity. A specific, fine-grained (less than 1 ha) LULC database at regional scale (4450 km²) added great spatial precision in individual ES models, in spite of limits of the typological resolution for forests and semi-natural areas. We analysed ES bundles within three different socio-ecosystems and associated landscape types (periurban, rural and forest areas). Such type-specific bundles highlighted distinctive ES trade-offs and synergies for each landscape. Advanced approaches combining remote sensing, targeted field data collection and expert knowledge from scientists and stakeholders are expected to provide the significant progress that is now required to support the reduction of trade-offs and enhance synergies between management objectives

Le fonctionnement du troupeau : une interaction entre la conduite de l'éleveur et les comportements reproductifs d'animaux

National audienceL'objectif de cette communication est de présenter une synthèse de travaux s'appuyant sur la notion de fonctionnement du troupeau. Cette notion a été proposée pour comprendre et prévoir l'effet des pratiques de l'éleveur sur les performances à long terme du troupeau. Dans une première partie, nous comparons différentes situations d'élevage, localisées dans des environnements difficiles ou plus favorables mais parfois exigeants d'un point de vue biologique pour l'animal. Les différentes conduites indiquent qu'il existe pour l'éleveur plusieurs façons de gérer la variabilité des performances de reproduction des animaux. Certaines conduites visent à imposer un rythme de reproduction identique pour toutes les femelles, alors que d'autres favorisent des rythmes de reproduction variés au sein du troupeau. Dans la seconde partie, nous envisageons à partir de ces différents travaux les implications en termes de modélisation. La notion de fonctionnement de troupeau doit alors permettre de rendre compte des interactions

Cartographier les services écosystémiques : quelles données, quels modèles, quelles incertitudes ? Exemple autour du bassin de vie de Grenoble

National audienceThe evolution of institutional and policy frameworks for Ecosystem Services (ES), especially thenew 2016 biodiversity legislation in France, make accounting for ES in land use managementmandatory. This requires the use of spatially explicit information, and therefore thedevelopment of models to map ES. Most models are based on or use Land Use or Land Cover maps(LU/LC) as a proxy. Using a highly accurate spatialized LU/LC database, we applied or adaptedmodels to map 15 ES. We show that depending on the implication of the LU/LC database as inputto the models, the type of model (proxy vs. process based) and the processes modeled, theresulting spatial patterns are more or less dependent on the LU/LC database. The critical analysisof limits and uncertainties in the LU/LC mapping process (in general and for our database inparticular), and the use of these maps for modelling ES showed : 1 - the benefits, especially inagricultural areas, of precise description and monitoring of LU/LC inter-annual dynamics for thequantification of ES supply ; 2- the consequences of LU/LC typological limits for thequantification of ES, especially in our work in forest and semi-natural areas. The use of remotesensing should support a serious typological improvement to better characterize the LU/LC andalso use as independent input data in ES models.L’évolution des cadres institutionnels et politiques autour de la question des ServicesEcosystémiques (SE), notamment avec la nouvelle loi Biodiversité en 2016 en France, amène à uneobligation de leur prise en compte dans la gestion territoriale. Cela nécessite l’utilisationd’informations spatialement explicites, et par conséquent le développement de modèlespermettant de cartographier les SE. La plupart des modèles se basent sur ou utilisent commeproxy des cartes d’Occupation ou d’Utilisation des Sols (OS/US). À partir d’une base de donnéesspatialisée extrêmement précise, nous avons appliqué ou adapté des modèles permettant decartographier 15 SE. Les résultats montrent que selon l’implication de la base de données d’OS/US en entrée dans les modèles, le type de modèle choisi (proxy vs. processus) et les processusmodélisés, les patrons spatiaux résultants sont plus ou moins dépendants de la carte d’OS/USd’entrée. L’analyse critique des limites et incertitudes inhérentes à la constitution des cartesd’OS/US (en général et la notre en particulier), ainsi que l’utilisation de ces cartes à des fins demodélisation de SE a montré : 1- les apports notamment dans les milieux agricoles d’unedescription précise des dynamiques interannuelles de l’OS/US pour la quantification de SEd’approvisionnement ; 2- l’implication de limites typologiques d’OS/US pour la quantification deSE, notamment dans notre travail pour les milieux forestiers et semi-naturels. L’usage de latélédétection apparait alors comme une piste sérieuse d’amélioration à la fois typologique pourmieux caractériser l’OS/US et également à utiliser comme donnée d’entrée indépendante dans lesmodèles de SE

Co-constructing future land-use scenarios for the Grenoble region, France

International audiencePhysically and socially heterogeneous mountain landscapes support high biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services. But rapid landscape transformation from fast urbanisation and agricultural intensification around cities to abandonment and depopulation in higher and more remote districts, raises urgent environmental and planning issues. For anticipating their future in a highly uncertain socio-economic context, we engaged stakeholders of a dynamic urban region of the French Alps in an exemplary interactive Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) for co-creating salient, credible and legitimate scenarios. Stakeholders helped researchers adapt, downscale and spatialize four normative visions from the regional government, co-producing four storylines of trend versus break-away futures. Stakeholder input, combined with planning documents and analyses of recent dynamics, enabled parameterisation of high-resolution models of urban expansion, agriculture and forest dynamics. With similar storylines in spite of stakeholders insisting on different governance arrangements, both trend scenarios met current local and European planning objectives of containing urban expansion and limiting loss and fragmentation of agricultural land. Both break-away scenarios induced considerable conversion from agriculture to forest, but with highly distinctive patterns. Under a commonly investigated, deregulated liberal economic context, encroachment was random and patchy across valleys and mountains. A novel reinforced nature protection scenario affecting primarily mountain and hilly areas fostered deliberate consolidation of forested areas and connectivity. This transdisciplinary approach demonstrated the potential of combining downscaled normative scenarios with local, spatially-precise dynamics informed by stakeholders for local appropriation of top-down visions, and for supporting land planning and subsequent assessment of ecosystem service trade-offs

Ecosystem service supply by European landscapes under alternative land-use and environmental policies

The European Union (EU) 2020 Biodiversity strategy aims at guaranteeing and enhancing the future supply of ecosystem services (‘ES’) in the member states. In an ex-ante assessment of plausible environmental policies, we projected the supply of 10 ES under 3 policy alternatives of land-use change (‘Nature Protection’, ‘Payment for carbon sequestration’ and ‘Payment for recreational services’) in the 27 EU member states (EU27). We assessed changes in supply of individual services across administrative units (at the NUTS-2 and EU27 levels) as well as bundles (at the EU27 level) between 2010 and 2040. Results show that the policy options only marginally affected ES bundles but several services could change substantially at the EU27 level (e.g. energy content from agricultural production and pollination). Wood supply, carbon sequestration and moderation of wind disturbance responded very differently across policy alternatives. At the NUTS-2 level, biocontrol of pests, carbon sequestration, moderation of wind disturbance and wood supply showed the most contrasted deviation from their regional supply in 2010. Finally, while payments for carbon sequestration benefited carbon sequestration as expected, specific payments for recreation services failed to promote them. Our analyses suggest that protecting nature appeared to be the best way of fostering ES supply within Europe.EDITED BY Rob Alkemad

Ecosystem service supply by European landscapes under alternative land-use and environmental policies

<p>The European Union (EU) 2020 Biodiversity strategy aims at guaranteeing and enhancing the future supply of ecosystem services (‘ES’) in the member states. In an <i>ex-ante</i> assessment of plausible environmental policies, we projected the supply of 10 ES under 3 policy alternatives of land-use change (‘Nature Protection’, ‘Payment for carbon sequestration’ and ‘Payment for recreational services’) in the 27 EU member states (EU27). We assessed changes in supply of individual services across administrative units (at the NUTS-2 and EU27 levels) as well as bundles (at the EU27 level) between 2010 and 2040. Results show that the policy options only marginally affected ES bundles but several services could change substantially at the EU27 level (e.g. energy content from agricultural production and pollination). Wood supply, carbon sequestration and moderation of wind disturbance responded very differently across policy alternatives. At the NUTS-2 level, biocontrol of pests, carbon sequestration, moderation of wind disturbance and wood supply showed the most contrasted deviation from their regional supply in 2010. Finally, while payments for carbon sequestration benefited carbon sequestration as expected, specific payments for recreation services failed to promote them. Our analyses suggest that protecting nature appeared to be the best way of fostering ES supply within Europe.</p><p><b>EDITED BY</b> Rob Alkemade</p><p></p> <p><b>EDITED BY</b> Rob Alkemade</p