Crack avalanches in the three dimensional random fuse model

We analyze the scaling of avalanche precursors in the three dimensional random fuse model by numerical simulations. We find that both the integrated and non-integrated avalanche size distributions are in good agreement with the results of the global load sharing fiber bundle model, which represents the mean-field limit of the model.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, submitted for the proceedings of the conference "Physics Survey of Irregular Systems", in honor of Bernard Sapova

The HIRLAM fast radiation scheme for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models

This paper provides an overview of the HLRADIA shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) broadband radiation schemes used in the HIRLAM numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and available in the HARMONIE-AROME mesoscale NWP model. The advantage of broadband, over spectral, schemes is that they can be called more frequently within the model, without compromising on computational efficiency. In mesoscale models fast interactions between clouds and radiation and the surface and radiation can be of greater importance than accounting for the spectral details of clear-sky radiation; thus calling the routines more frequently can be of greater benefit than the deterioration due to loss of spectral details. Fast but physically based radiation parametrizations are expected to be valuable for high-resolution ensemble forecasting, because as well as the speed of their execution, they may provide realistic physical perturbations. Results from single-column diagnostic experiments based on CIRC benchmark cases and an evaluation of 10 years of radiation output from the FMI operational archive of HIRLAM forecasts indicate that HLRADIA performs sufficiently well with respect to the clear-sky downwelling SW and longwave LWfluxes at the surface. In general, HLRADIA tends to overestimate surface fluxes, with the exception of LW fluxes under cold and dry conditions. The most obvious overestimation of the surface SW flux was seen in the cloudy cases in the 10-year comparison; this bias may be related to using a cloud inhomogeneity correction, which was too large. According to the CIRC comparisons, the outgoing LW and SW fluxes at the top of atmosphere are mostly overestimated by HLRADIA and the net LW flux is underestimated above clouds. The absorption of SW radiation by the atmosphere seems to be underestimated and LW absorption seems to be overestimated. Despite these issues, the overall results are satisfying and work on the improvement of HLRADIA for the use in HARMONIE-AROME NWP system is ongoing. In a HARMONIE-AROME 3-D forecast experiment we have shown that the frequency of the call for the radiation parametrization and choice of the parametrization scheme makes a difference to the surface radiation fluxes and changes the spatial distribution of the vertically integrated cloud cover and precipitation.Peer reviewe

High but stable incidence of adult-onset asthma in northern Sweden over the last decades

Background The prevalence of asthma has increased both among children and adults during the latter half of the 20th century. The prevalence among adults is affected by the incidence of asthma not only in childhood but also in adulthood. Time trends in asthma incidence have been poorly studied. Aims The aim of this study was to review the incidence of adult-onset asthma from 1996 to 2006 and 2006 to 2016 and compare the risk factor patterns. Methods In the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden (OLIN) studies, two randomly selected population-based samples in the 20-69-year age group participated in postal questionnaire surveys about asthma in 1996 (n=7104, 85%) and 2006 (n=6165, 77%). A 10-year follow-up of the two cohorts with the same validated questionnaire was performed, and 5709 and 4552 responded, respectively. Different definitions of population at risk were used in the calculations of asthma incidence. The protocol followed a study performed between 1986 and 1996 in the same area. Results The crude incidence rate of physician-diagnosed asthma was 4.4 per 1000 person-years (men 3.8, women 5.5) from 1996 to 2006, and 4.8 per 1000 person-years (men 3.7, women 6.2) from 2006 to 2016. When correcting for possible under-diagnosis at study entry, the incidence rate was 2.4 per 1000 personyears from 1996 to 2006 and 2.6 per 1000 person-years from 2006 to 2016. The incidence rates were similar across age groups. Allergic rhino-conjunctivitis was the main risk factor for incident asthma in both observation periods (risk ratio 2.4-2.6). Conclusions The incidence of adult-onset asthma has been stable over the last two decades and has remained at a similar level since the 1980s. The high incidence contributes to the increase in asthma prevalence.Peer reviewe

Aerosol optical depth comparison between GAW-PFR and AERONET-Cimel radiometers from long-term (2005–2015) 1 min synchronous measurements

A comprehensive comparison of more than 70 000 synchronous 1 min aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from three Global Atmosphere Watch precision-filter radiometers (GAW-PFR), traceable to the World AOD reference, and 15 Aerosol Robotic Network Cimel radiometers (AERONET-Cimel), calibrated individually with the Langley plot technique, was performed for four common or “near” wavelengths, 380, 440, 500 and 870 nm, in the period 2005–2015. The goal of this study is to assess whether, despite the marked technical differences between both networks (AERONET, GAW-PFR) and the number of instruments used, their long-term AOD data are comparable and consistent. The percentage of data meeting the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) traceability requirements (95 % of the AOD differences of an instrument compared to the WMO standards lie within specific limits) is >92 % at 380 nm, >95 % at 440 nm and 500 nm, and 98 % at 870 nm, with the results being quite similar for both AERONET version 2 (V2) and version 3 (V3). For the data outside these limits, the contribution of calibration and differences in the calculation of the optical depth contribution due to Rayleigh scattering and O3 and NO2absorption have a negligible impact. For AOD >0.1, a small but non-negligible percentage (∼1.9 %) of the AOD data outside the WMO limits at 380 nm can be partly assigned to the impact of dust aerosol forward scattering on the AOD calculation due to the different field of view of the instruments. Due to this effect the GAW-PFR provides AOD values, which are ∼3 % lower at 380 nm and ∼2 % lower at 500 nm compared with AERONET-Cimel. The comparison of the Ångström exponent (AE) shows that under non-pristine conditions (AOD >0.03 and AE <1) the AE differences remain <0.1. This long-term comparison shows an excellent traceability of AERONET-Cimel AOD with the World AOD reference at 440, 500 and 870 nm channels and a fairly good agreement at 380 nm, although AOD should be improved in the UV range.The Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss International Affairs Division, Swiss GCOS Office, has funded the project “The Global Atmosphere Watch Precision Filter Radiometer (GAW-PFR) Network for Aerosol Optical Depth long term measurements”, and specifically the GAW-PFR program at the Izaña Observatory. AEMET has funded the AERONET programme at the Izaña Observatory. Some of the AERONET-Cimel radiometers have been calibrated at Izaña Observatory by the AERONET Europe Calibration Service, financed by specific European Community programmes for integrating activities: Research Infrastructure Action under the Seventh Framework Programme (grant no. FP7/2007-2013) and ACTRIS (grant no. 45 262254). This research has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant no. 654109) (ACTRIS-2). Funding from MINECO (grant no. CTM2015-66742-R) and Junta de Castilla y León (grant no. VA100P17) is also gratefully acknowledged. Much of this study has been performed in the frame of the WMO CIMO Izaña test bed for aerosols and water vapour remote-sensing instruments funded by AEMET

Nudging service providers and assessing service trade-offs to reduce the social inefficiencies of payments for ecosystem services schemes

Socially inefficient payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes result when adverse shifts in the provisioning of other ecosystem services (ES) or overpayment to service providers occur. To address these inefficiencies, a holistic evaluation of trade-offs between services should be conducted in parallel with determining land owners' service provisioning preferences. Recent evidence also suggests that nudging stakeholders' preferences could be a useful policy design tool to address global change challenges. Forest owners' landscape management preferences were nudged to determine the impact on the social efficiency of PES schemes for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation in Finland. ES indicators for biodiversity conservation, carbon storage, and the albedo effect were included with traditional provisioning services (i.e. timber) and bioenergy to assess the consequent intra-service trade-offs. Synergies in provisioning of regulating services were identified, but were found to be more efficient when the management objective is for biodiversity conservation rather than climate change regulation. Nudging led to marginal gains in service provisioning above the baseline management and above neutral owner preferences, and increased aggregate service provisioning. This demonstrates the importance of considering intra-service trade-offs and that nudging could be an important tool for designing efficient PES schemes. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Avalanches in Breakdown and Fracture Processes

We investigate the breakdown of disordered networks under the action of an increasing external---mechanical or electrical---force. We perform a mean-field analysis and estimate scaling exponents for the approach to the instability. By simulating two-dimensional models of electric breakdown and fracture we observe that the breakdown is preceded by avalanche events. The avalanches can be described by scaling laws, and the estimated values of the exponents are consistent with those found in mean-field theory. The breakdown point is characterized by a discontinuity in the macroscopic properties of the material, such as conductivity or elasticity, indicative of a first order transition. The scaling laws suggest an analogy with the behavior expected in spinodal nucleation.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. E, corrected typo in authors name, no changes to the pape

Manifestations and Outcome of Cardiac Sarcoidosis and Idiopathic Giant Cell Myocarditis by 25-Year Nationwide Cohorts

Background Cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) and giant cell myocarditis (GCM) share many histopathologic and clinical features. Whether they are parts of a one-disease continuum has been discussed.Methods and Results We compared medical record data of 351 CS and 28 GCM cases diagnosed in Finland since the late 1980s and followed until February 2018 for a composite end point of cardiac death, aborted sudden death, and heart transplantation. Heart failure was the presenting manifestation in 50% versus 15% (PP=0.044), of GCM and CS, respectively. At presentation, left ventricular ejection fraction was P=0.004). The median (interquartile range) of plasma NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) was 5273 (2782-11309) ng/L on admission in GCM versus 859 (290-1950) ng/L in CS (PPPConclusions GCM differs from CS in presenting with more extensive myocardial injury and having worse long-term outcome. Yet the key determinant of prognosis appears to be the extent of myocardial injury rather than the histopathologic diagnosis.</p

How Asian aerosols impact regional surface temperatures across the globe

South and East Asian anthropogenic aerosols mostly reside in an air mass extending from the Indian Ocean to the North Pacific. Yet the surface temperature effects of Asian aerosols spread across the whole globe. Here, we remove Asian anthropogenic aerosols from two independent climate models (ECHAM6.1 and NorESM1) using the same representation of aerosols via MACv2-SP (a simple plume implementation of the second version of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology). We then robustly decompose the global distribution of surface temperature responses into contributions from atmospheric energy flux changes. We find that the horizontal atmospheric energy transport strongly moderates the surface temperature response over the regions where Asian aerosols reside. Atmospheric energy transport and changes in clear-sky long-wave radiation redistribute the temperature effects efficiently across the Northern Hemisphere and to a lesser extent also over the Southern Hemisphere. The model-mean global surface temperature response to Asian anthropogenic aerosol removal is 0.26 +/- 0.04 degrees C (0.22 +/- 0.03 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.30 +/- 0.03 degrees C for NorESM1) of warming. Model-to-model differences in global surface temperature response mainly arise from differences in longwave cloud (0.01 +/- 0.01 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.05 +/- 0.01 degrees C for NorESM1) and shortwave cloud (0.03 +/- 0.03 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.07 +/- 0.02 degrees C for NorESM1) responses. The differences in cloud responses between the models also dominate the differences in regional temperature responses. In both models, the northernhemispheric surface warming amplifies towards the Arctic, where the total temperature response is highly seasonal and weakest during the Arctic summer. We estimate that under a strong Asian aerosol mitigation policy tied with strong climate mitigation (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9) the Asian aerosol reductions can add around 8 years' worth of current-day global warming during the next few decades.Peer reviewe