A Simple Model of Epidemics with Pathogen Mutation

We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted individuals becoming infected only if they are exposed to strains that are significantly different from other strains in their memory repertoire. The second model is a reduction of the first to a system of difference equations. In this case, individuals spend a fixed amount of time in a generalized immune class. In both models, we observe four fundamentally different types of behavior, depending on parameters: (1) pathogen extinction due to lack of contact between individuals, (2) endemic infection (3) periodic epidemic outbreaks, and (4) one or more outbreaks followed by extinction of the epidemic due to extremely low minima in the oscillations. We analyze both models to determine the location of each transition. Our main result is that pathogens in highly connected populations must mutate rapidly in order to remain viable.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figure

Predicting dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana using climate indicators

Background Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Methodology/Principal Findings Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical epidemic year and to define the best indices for predicting dengue fever outbreaks during the period 1991-2013. A logistic regression was then performed to build a forecast model. We demonstrate that a model based on summer Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and Azores High sea-level pressure had predictive value and was able to predict 80% of the outbreaks while incorrectly predicting only 15% of the non-epidemic years. Predictions for 2014-2015 were consistent with the observed non-epidemic conditions, and an outbreak in early 2016 was predicted. Conclusions/Significance These findings indicate that outbreak resurgence can be modeled using a simple combination of climate indicators. This might be useful for anticipating public health actions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and medical infrastructures are generally insufficient

Poor survival outcomes in HER2 positive breast cancer patients with low grade, node negative tumours

We present a retrospective analysis on a cohort of low-grade, node-negative patients showing that human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status significantly affects the survival in this otherwise very good prognostic group. Our results provide support for the use of adjuvant trastuzumab in patients who are typically classified as having very good prognosis, not routinely offered standard chemotherapy, and who as such do not fit current UK prescribing guidelines for trastuzumab

ER and HER2 expression are positively correlated in HER2 non-overexpressing breast cancer

PMCID: PMC3446380This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Clinical and genomic analysis of a randomised phase II study evaluating anastrozole and fulvestrant in postmenopausal patients treated for large operable or locally-advanced hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer

Background: The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of neoadjuvant anastrozole and fulvestrant treatment of large operable or locally-advanced hormone- receptor-positive breast cancer not eligible for initial breast-conserving surgery, and to identify genomic changes occurring after treatment. Methods: 120 post-menopausal patients were randomised to receive 1 mg anastrozole (61 patients) or 500 mg fulvestrant (59 patients) for 6 months. Genomic DNA copy number profiles were generated for a subgroup of 20 patients before and after treatment. Results: 108 patients were evaluable for efficacy and 118 for toxicity. The objective response rate determined by clinical palpation was 58.9% (95% CI 45.0-71.9) in the anastrozole arm and 53.8% (95% CI 39.5-67.8) in the fulvestrant arm. The breast- conserving surgery rate was 58.9% (95% CI 45.0-71.9) in the anastrozole arm and 50.0% (95% CI 35.8-64.2) in the fulvestrant arm. Pathological responses >50% occurred in 24 patients (42.9%) in the anastrozole arm and 13 (25.0%) in the fulvestrant arm. The Ki-67 score fell after treatment but there was no significant difference between the reduction in the two arms (anastrozole 16.7% [95%CI 13.3-21.0] before, 3.2% [95%CI 1.9-5.5] after, n=43; fulvestrant 17.1% [95%CI 13.1-22.5] before, 3.2% [95%CI 1.8-5.7] after, n=38) or between the reduction in Ki-67 in clinical responders and non- responders. Genomic analysis appeared to show a reduction of clonal diversity following treatment with selection of some clones with simpler copy number profiles. Conclusion: Both anastrozole and fulvestrant were effective and well-tolerated, enabling breast-conserving surgery in over 50% of patients. Clonal changes consistent with clonal selection by the treatment were seen in a subgroup of patients

Morphometrical malignancy grading is a valuable prognostic factor in invasive ductal breast cancer

The aim of the present study is to augment the prognostic power of breast cancer grading by elaboration of quantitative histopathological methods. We focus on the recently introduced morphometrical grading system in which the three grading sub-features of the WHO grading system are evaluated with the help of computerised nuclear morphometry, and quantitative methods for assessing mitotic activity and tubular differentiation. The prognostic value of the morphometrical grading system is now confirmed in a material of 159 cases of invasive ductal breast cancer. In the current material the morphometrical grading system very efficiently predicted the prognosis of breast cancer by dividing the patients into favourable (grade I), intermediate (grade II), and unfavourable (grade III) outcome (P<0.0001). The morphometrical grading system was especially efficient in identifying patients with the most unfavourable outcome. In our material the morphometrical grade III was associated with a 5.4-fold risk of breast cancer death. In light of the present results, the morphometrical grading can be applied to clinical use as an aid in treatment decisions of patients with invasive ductal breast cancer

Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

BACKGROUND: During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies) is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. METHODS: The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. RESULTS: The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85). Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11) but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72). CONCLUSION: Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts better than humidity and rainfall. SARIMA models using climatic data as independent variables could be easily incorporated into an early (3 months-ahead) and reliably monitoring system of dengue outbreaks. This approach which is practicable for a surveillance system has public health implications in helping the prediction of dengue epidemic and therefore the timely appropriate and efficient implementation of prevention activities

Frequency, prognostic impact, and subtype association of 8p12, 8q24, 11q13, 12p13, 17q12, and 20q13 amplifications in breast cancers

BACKGROUND: Oncogene amplification and overexpression occur in tumor cells. Amplification status may provide diagnostic and prognostic information and may lead to new treatment strategies. Chromosomal regions 8p12, 8q24, 11q13, 17q12 and 20q13 are recurrently amplified in breast cancers. METHODS: To assess the frequencies and clinical impact of amplifications, we analyzed 547 invasive breast tumors organized in a tissue microarray (TMA) by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and calculated correlations with histoclinical features and prognosis. BAC probes were designed for: (i) two 8p12 subregions centered on RAB11FIP1 and FGFR1 loci, respectively; (ii) 11q13 region centered on CCND1; (iii) 12p13 region spanning NOL1; and (iv) three 20q13 subregions centered on MYBL2, ZNF217 and AURKA, respectively. Regions 8q24 and 17q12 were analyzed with MYC and ERBB2 commercial probes, respectively. RESULTS: We observed amplification of 8p12 (amplified at RAB11FIP1 and/or FGFR1) in 22.8%, 8q24 in 6.1%, 11q13 in 19.6%, 12p13 in 4.1%, 17q12 in 9.9%, 20q13(Z )(amplified at ZNF217 only) in 9.9%, and 20q13(Co )(co-amplification of two or three 20q13 loci) in 8.5% of cases. The 8q24, 12p13, and 17q12 amplifications were correlated with high grade. The most frequent single amplifications were 8p12 (9.8%), 8q24 (3.3%) and 12p13 (3.3%), 20q13(Z )and 20q13(Co )(1.6%) regions. The 17q12 and 11q13 regions were never found amplified alone. The most frequent co-amplification was 8p12/11q13. Amplifications of 8p12 and 17q12 were associated with poor outcome. Amplification of 12p13 was associated with basal molecular subtype. CONCLUSION: Our results establish the frequencies, prognostic impacts and subtype associations of various amplifications and co-amplifications in breast cancers

La pollution atmosphérique d'origine automobile et la santé publique

A l'heure de l'élaboration, prévue par la "loi sur l'air et l'utilisation rationnelle de l'énergie", des plans régionaux pour la qualité de l'air, plans de protection de l'atmosphère des agglomérations et plans de déplacements urbains, la nécessité de connaître la nature et l'ordre de grandeur des effets sur la santé de la pollution urbaine est plus que jamais d'actualité. La Société Française de Santé Publique, à la demande des ministères chargés de la santé, de l'Environnement et des Transports, a récemment publié un rapport intitulé "la pollution atmosphérique d'origine automobile et la santé publique, bilan de 15 ans de recherche internationale" (SFSP, 1966). Dix-neuf auteurs(1) ont participé à sa rédaction. Cet article en est largement issu et présente principalement l'évaluation des risques sanitaires qui en constitue la partie originale