Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

A Global lake ecological observatory network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate processbased ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest

Effects of turbulence on alkaline phosphatase activity of phytoplankton and bacterioplankton in Lake Taihu

Alkaline phosphatase (AP), an inducible and hydrolytic enzyme, plays a key role in the biogeochemical cycle of phosphorus (P) in lakes. Activity and regulation of AP has been suggested to be affected by hydrodynamic turbulence. However, many aspects of the coupling of the AP activity (APA) and turbulence are still to be investigated and understood. In this study, mesocosm experiments were carried out to further understand the effects of turbulence on APA and the relative contribution of the different microbial groups to the total APA (TAPA). Specifically, we focused on evaluating the APA of phytoplankton (2–112 µm) and bacterioplankton (0.2–2 µm) and its relationship with P fractions under four turbulence levels. Results showed that turbulent conditions enhanced planktonic APA (PAPA) which dominated TAPA by comprising 66–93% of the total fraction. In particular, PAPA was almost two times higher in the turbulence treatments than in still-water control. On the other hand, bacterioplanktonic APA (BAPA) decreased which could be associated with the competitive advantage of bacteria in nutrient-limited conditions due to surface-to-volume ratio. The results suggest that turbulence can accelerate the biogeochemical cycle of P and plays an important role in P strategies of plankton

Disproportionate impact of atmospheric heat events on lake surface water temperature increases

Hot temperature extremes (HTEs) in the atmosphere can also affect lake surface water temperature, but how this impact changes with global warming is not well understood. Here we use numerical modelling and satellite observations to quantify the contribution of HTEs to variations in summer lake surface water temperature and lake heatwaves in 1,260 water bodies worldwide between 1979 and 2022. Over this time period, HTE duration and cumulative intensity over the studied lakes increased significantly, at average rates of 1.4 days per decade and 0.92 °C days per decade, respectively. Despite only accounting for 7% of the total summer days, HTEs are responsible for 24% of lake surface summer warming trends, with the most pronounced effect observed in Europe at 27%. Moreover, HTEs are key drivers of both the duration and cumulative intensity of lake heatwaves. Our findings underscore the pivotal role played by short-term climatic extreme events in shaping long-term lake surface water temperature dynamics

Environmental controls of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in Chinese inland waters

Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) are expanding world-wide, adversely affecting aquatic food production, recreational and tourism activities and safe drinking water supplies. China's inland waters have been increasingly threatened by CyanoHABs during the past several decades. The environmental factors controlling CyanoHABs are highly variable in space and time in China due to significant variations in climate, geography, geological and geochemical conditions among its many regions. Here, we synthesize diverse examples among Chinese water bodies regarding interactive effects of anthropogenic, climatic and geographic drivers influencing CyanoHAB potentials and dynamics in lakes and reservoirs; in order to provide a perspective and integrative approach to mitigating CyanoHABs. In China's many shallow water bodies, water quality is highly susceptible to human activity and to changing climatic and hydrological conditions, when compared to deeper lakes. Rapid increases in population, economic activity, and wastewater have accelerated CyanoHABs in China since 1980s, especially in the heavily urbanized, agricultural and industrial regions in the middle and lower Yangtze River basins. Climatic changes have provided an additional catalyst for expansion of CyanoHABs. In particular, rising spring temperatures have accelerated the onset and proliferation of Microcystis spp, blooms in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin. Large hydroelectric and water supply projects, like the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), have altered hydrological regimes, and have led to an increase of CyanoHABs in reservoirs and tributaries due to increases in water residence times. Manipulating water level fluctuations in the TGR may prove useful for controlling CyanoHAB in its tributary bays. Overall,CyanoHAB mitigation strategies will have to incorporate both N and P input reductions in these shallow systems. Furthermore, nutrient reduction strategies must consider climate change-induced increases in extreme weather events, including more intense rainfall and protracted heat waves and droughts, which can extend the magnitudes and duration of CyanoHABs. Ensuring the maintenance of natural hydrologic connectivity between lakes and rivers is of utmost importance in mitigating CyanoHABs throughout China

Corrigendum to “Environmental controls of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in Chinese inland waters”

Corrigendum to “Environmental controls of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in Chinese inland waters

Climate change drives rapid warming and increasing heatwaves of lakes

Climate change could seriously threaten global lake ecosystems by warming lake surface water and increasing the occurrence of lake heatwaves. Yet, there are great uncertainties in quantifying lake temperature changes globally due to a lack of accurate large-scale model simulations. Here, we integrated satellite observations and a numerical model to improve lake temperature modeling and explore the multifaceted characteristics of trends in surface temperatures and lake heatwave occurrence in Chinese lakes from 1980 to 2100. Our model-data integration approach revealed that the lake surface waters have warmed at a rate of 0.11 °C 10a-1 during the period 1980-2021, being only half of the pure model-based estimate. Moreover, our analysis suggested that an asymmetric seasonal warming rate has led to a reduced temperature seasonality in eastern plain lakes but an amplified one in alpine lakes. The durations of lake heatwaves have also increased at a rate of 7.7 d 10a-1. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, lake surface temperature and lake heatwave duration were projected to increase by 2.2 °C and 197 d at the end of the 21st century, respectively. Such drastic changes would worsen the environmental conditions of lakes subjected to high and increasing anthropogenic pressures, posing great threats to aquatic biodiversity and human health.</p

Toxins from harmful algal blooms: How copper and iron render chalkophore a predictor of microcystin production

Research on harmful algal blooms has focused on macronutrients, yet recent research increasingly indicates that understanding micronutrient roles is also important in the development of effective environmental management interventions. Here, we report results on metallophore production from mesocosms amended with copper and iron (enzymatic co-factors in photosynthetic electron transport) to probe questions of how cyanobacteria navigate the divide between copper nutrition, copper toxicity, and issues with iron bioavailability. These experiments utilized Microcystis, Chlorella and Desmodesmus spp., in mono- and mixed-cultures in lake water from a large, hypereutrophic lake (Taihu, China). To initiate experiments, copper and iron amendments were added to mesocosms containing algae that had been acclimated to achieve a state of copper and iron limitation. Mesocosms were analyzed over time for a range of analytes including algal growth parameters, algal assemblage progression, copper/iron concentrations and biomolecule production of chalkophore, siderophore and total microcystins. Community Trajectory Analysis and other multivariate methods were used for analysis resulting in our findings: 1) Microcystis spp. manage copper/iron requirements though a dynamically phased behavior of chalkophore/siderophore production according to their copper and iron limitation status (chalkophore correlates with Cu concentration, R2 = 0.99, and siderophore correlates with the sum of Cu and Fe concentrations, R2 = 0.98). 2) A strong correlation was observed between the production of chalkophore and the cyanobacterial toxin microcystin (R2 = 0.76)-Chalkophore is a predictor of microcystin production. 3) Based on our results and literature, we posit that Microcystis spp. produces microcystin in response to copper/iron availability to manage photosystem productivity and effect an energy-saving status. Results from this work underscore the importance of micronutrients in influencing harmful algal bloom progression and represents a major advance in understanding the ecological function for the cyanobacterial toxin microcystin as a hallmark of micronutrient limitation stress

Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients

Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change

The unprecedented 2022 extreme summer heatwaves increased harmful cyanobacteria blooms

Heatwaves are increasing and expected to intensify in coming decades with global warming. However, direct evidence and knowledge of the mechanisms of the effects of heatwaves on harmful cyanobacteria blooms are limited and unclear. In 2022, we measured chlorophyll-a (Chla) at 20-s intervals based on a novel ground-based proximal sensing system (GBPSs) in the shallow eutrophic Lake Taihu and combined in situ Chla measurements with meteorological data to explore the impacts of heatwaves on cyanobacterial blooms and the potential relevant mechanisms. We found that three unprecedented summer heatwaves (July 4-15, July 22-August 16, and August 18-23) lasting a total of 44 days were observed with average maximum air temperatures (MATs) of 38.1 ± 1.9 °C, 38.7 ± 1.9 °C, and 40.2 ± 2.1 °C, respectively, and that these heatwaves were characterized by high air temperature, strong PAR, low wind speed and rainfall. The daily Chla significantly increased with increasing MAT and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and decreasing wind speed, revealing a clear promotion effect on harmful cyanobacteria blooms from the heatwaves. Moreover, the combined effects of high temperature, strong PAR and low wind, enhanced the stability of the water column, the light availability and the phosphorus release from the sediment which ultimately boosted cyanobacteria blooms. The projected increase in heatwave occurrence under future climate change underscores the urgency of reducing nutrient input to eutrophic lakes to combat cyanobacteria growth and of improving early warning systems to ensure secure water management.</p