Uncertainty of CERES-maize calibration under different irrigation strategies using pest optimization algorithm

© 2019 by the authors. An important but rarely studied aspect of crop modeling is the uncertainty associated with model calibration and its effect on model prediction. Biomass and grain yield data from a four-year maize experiment (2008–2011) with six irrigation treatments were divided into subsets by either treatments (Calibration-by-Treatment) or years (Calibration-by-Year). These subsets were then used to calibrate crop cultivar parameters in CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-Maize implemented within RZWQM2 (Root Zone Water Quality Model 2) using the automatic Parameter ESTimation (PEST) algorithm to explore model calibration uncertainties. After calibration for each subset, PEST also generated 300 cultivar parameter sets by assuming a normal distribution of each parameter within their reported values in the literature, using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The parameter sets that produced similar goodness of fit (11–164 depending on subset used for calibration) were then used to predict all the treatments and years of the entire dataset. Our results showed that the selection of calibration datasets greatly affected the calibrated crop parameters and their uncertainty, as well as prediction uncertainty of grain yield and biomass. The high variability in model prediction of grain yield and biomass among the six (Calibration-by-Treatment) or the four (Calibration-by-Year) scenarios indicated that parameter uncertainty should be considered in calibrating CERES-Maize with grain yield and biomass data from different irrigation treatments, and model predictions should be provided with confidence intervals

Optimizing ET-based irrigation scheduling for wheat and maize with water constraints

© 2017 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. Deficit irrigation has been shown to increase crop water use efficiency (WUE) under certain conditions, even though the yield is slightly reduced. In this study, the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) was first calibrated with measured data from a large weighing lysimeter from 1998 to 2003 at the Yucheng Experimental Station in the North China Plain for daily evapotranspiration (ET), soil water storage (0-120 cm), leaf area index (LAI), aboveground biomass, and grain yield. The calibrated model was then used to explore crop responses to ET-based irrigation management using weather data from 1958 to 2015 and identify the most suitable ET-based irrigation schedules for the area. Irrigation amount was determined by constraining irrigation to a percentage of potential crop ET (40%, 60%, 80%, and 100% ETc) at the various growth stages of wheat [planting to before winter dormancy (P-D), green up to booting (G-B), booting to flowering (B-F), and flowering to maturity (F-M)] and of maize [planting to silking (P-S) and silking to maturity (S-M)], subject to seasonal water availability limits of 100/50, 200/100, 300/150, and 400/200 mm and no water limit for wheat/maize seasons, respectively. In general, wheat was more responsive to irrigation than maize, while greater influence of weather variation was simulated on maize than on wheat. For wheat with seasonal water limits, the highest average WUE was simulated with the highest targeted ETc levels at both the G-B and B-F stages and lower targeted ETc levels at the P-D and F-M stages. However, the highest average grain yield was simulated with the highest targeted ETc levels at all four growth stages for no water limit and the 400 mm water limit, or at both the G-B and B-F stages for the 300 and 200 mm water limits. For maize, lower targeted ETc levels after silking did not significantly affect maize production due to the high season rainfall, but irrigation of 60% ETc before silking was recommended. These results could be used as guidelines for precision irrigation along with real-time weather information

A mutation affecting the sodium/proton exchanger, SLC9A6, causes mental retardation with tau deposition

We have studied a family with severe mental retardation characterized by the virtual absence of speech, autism spectrum disorder, epilepsy, late-onset ataxia, weakness and dystonia. Post-mortem examination of two males revealed widespread neuronal loss, with the most striking finding being neuronal and glial tau deposition in a pattern reminiscent of corticobasal degeneration. Electron microscopic examination of isolated tau filaments demonstrated paired helical filaments and ribbon-like structures. Biochemical studies of tau demonstrated a preponderance of 4R tau isoforms. The phenotype was linked to Xq26.3, and further analysis identified an in-frame 9 base pair deletion in the solute carrier family 9, isoform A6 (SLC9A6 gene), which encodes sodium/hydrogen exchanger-6 localized to endosomal vesicles. Sodium/hydrogen exchanger-6 is thought to participate in the targeting of intracellular vesicles and may be involved in recycling synaptic vesicles. The striking tau deposition in our subjects reveals a probable interaction between sodium/proton exchangers and cytoskeletal elements involved in vesicular transport, and raises the possibility that abnormalities of vesicular targeting may play an important role in more common disorders such as Alzheimer's disease and autism spectrum disorder

The LAGUNA design study- towards giant liquid based underground detectors for neutrino physics and astrophysics and proton decay searches

The feasibility of a next generation neutrino observatory in Europe is being considered within the LAGUNA design study. To accommodate giant neutrino detectors and shield them from cosmic rays, a new very large underground infrastructure is required. Seven potential candidate sites in different parts of Europe and at several distances from CERN are being studied: Boulby (UK), Canfranc (Spain), Fr\'ejus (France/Italy), Pyh\"asalmi (Finland), Polkowice-Sieroszowice (Poland), Slanic (Romania) and Umbria (Italy). The design study aims at the comprehensive and coordinated technical assessment of each site, at a coherent cost estimation, and at a prioritization of the sites within the summer 2010.Comment: 5 pages, contribution to the Workshop "European Strategy for Future Neutrino Physics", CERN, Oct. 200

Calibration of the Logarithmic-Periodic Dipole Antenna (LPDA) Radio Stations at the Pierre Auger Observatory using an Octocopter

An in-situ calibration of a logarithmic periodic dipole antenna with a frequency coverage of 30 MHz to 80 MHz is performed. Such antennas are part of a radio station system used for detection of cosmic ray induced air showers at the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the so-called Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA). The directional and frequency characteristics of the broadband antenna are investigated using a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) carrying a small transmitting antenna. The antenna sensitivity is described by the vector effective length relating the measured voltage with the electric-field components perpendicular to the incoming signal direction. The horizontal and meridional components are determined with an overall uncertainty of 7.4^{+0.9}_{-0.3} % and 10.3^{+2.8}_{-1.7} % respectively. The measurement is used to correct a simulated response of the frequency and directional response of the antenna. In addition, the influence of the ground conductivity and permittivity on the antenna response is simulated. Both have a negligible influence given the ground conditions measured at the detector site. The overall uncertainties of the vector effective length components result in an uncertainty of 8.8^{+2.1}_{-1.3} % in the square root of the energy fluence for incoming signal directions with zenith angles smaller than 60{\deg}.Comment: Published version. Updated online abstract only. Manuscript is unchanged with respect to v2. 39 pages, 15 figures, 2 table

Multi-resolution anisotropy studies of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We report a multi-resolution search for anisotropies in the arrival directions of cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory with local zenith angles up to $80^\circ$ and energies in excess of 4 EeV ($4 \times 10^{18}$ eV). This search is conducted by measuring the angular power spectrum and performing a needlet wavelet analysis in two independent energy ranges. Both analyses are complementary since the angular power spectrum achieves a better performance in identifying large-scale patterns while the needlet wavelet analysis, considering the parameters used in this work, presents a higher efficiency in detecting smaller-scale anisotropies, potentially providing directional information on any observed anisotropies. No deviation from isotropy is observed on any angular scale in the energy range between 4 and 8 EeV. Above 8 EeV, an indication for a dipole moment is captured; while no other deviation from isotropy is observed for moments beyond the dipole one. The corresponding $p$-values obtained after accounting for searches blindly performed at several angular scales, are $1.3 \times 10^{-5}$ in the case of the angular power spectrum, and $2.5 \times 10^{-3}$ in the case of the needlet analysis. While these results are consistent with previous reports making use of the same data set, they provide extensions of the previous works through the thorough scans of the angular scales.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

Ultrahigh-energy neutrino follow-up of Gravitational Wave events GW150914 and GW151226 with the Pierre Auger Observatory

On September 14, 2015 the Advanced LIGO detectors observed their first gravitational-wave (GW) transient GW150914. This was followed by a second GW event observed on December 26, 2015. Both events were inferred to have arisen from the merger of black holes in binary systems. Such a system may emit neutrinos if there are magnetic fields and disk debris remaining from the formation of the two black holes. With the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory we can search for neutrinos with energy above 100 PeV from point-like sources across the sky with equatorial declination from about -65 deg. to +60 deg., and in particular from a fraction of the 90% confidence-level (CL) inferred positions in the sky of GW150914 and GW151226. A targeted search for highly-inclined extensive air showers, produced either by interactions of downward-going neutrinos of all flavors in the atmosphere or by the decays of tau leptons originating from tau-neutrino interactions in the Earth's crust (Earth-skimming neutrinos), yielded no candidates in the Auger data collected within $\pm 500$ s around or 1 day after the coordinated universal time (UTC) of GW150914 and GW151226, as well as in the same search periods relative to the UTC time of the GW candidate event LVT151012. From the non-observation we constrain the amount of energy radiated in ultrahigh-energy neutrinos from such remarkable events.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

Evidence for a mixed mass composition at the `ankle' in the cosmic-ray spectrum

We report a first measurement for ultra-high energy cosmic rays of the correlation between the depth of shower maximum and the signal in the water Cherenkov stations of air-showers registered simultaneously by the fluorescence and the surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory. Such a correlation measurement is a unique feature of a hybrid air-shower observatory with sensitivity to both the electromagnetic and muonic components. It allows an accurate determination of the spread of primary masses in the cosmic-ray flux. Up till now, constraints on the spread of primary masses have been dominated by systematic uncertainties. The present correlation measurement is not affected by systematics in the measurement of the depth of shower maximum or the signal in the water Cherenkov stations. The analysis relies on general characteristics of air showers and is thus robust also with respect to uncertainties in hadronic event generators. The observed correlation in the energy range around the `ankle' at $\lg(E/{\rm eV})=18.5-19.0$ differs significantly from expectations for pure primary cosmic-ray compositions. A light composition made up of proton and helium only is equally inconsistent with observations. The data are explained well by a mixed composition including nuclei with mass $A > 4$. Scenarios such as the proton dip model, with almost pure compositions, are thus disfavoured as the sole explanation of the ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray flux at Earth.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

Azimuthal asymmetry in the risetime of the surface detector signals of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The azimuthal asymmetry in the risetime of signals in Auger surface detector stations is a source of information on shower development. The azimuthal asymmetry is due to a combination of the longitudinal evolution of the shower and geometrical effects related to the angles of incidence of the particles into the detectors. The magnitude of the effect depends upon the zenith angle and state of development of the shower and thus provides a novel observable, $(\sec \theta)_\mathrm{max}$, sensitive to the mass composition of cosmic rays above $3 \times 10^{18}$ eV. By comparing measurements with predictions from shower simulations, we find for both of our adopted models of hadronic physics (QGSJETII-04 and EPOS-LHC) an indication that the mean cosmic-ray mass increases slowly with energy, as has been inferred from other studies. However, the mass estimates are dependent on the shower model and on the range of distance from the shower core selected. Thus the method has uncovered further deficiencies in our understanding of shower modelling that must be resolved before the mass composition can be inferred from $(\sec \theta)_\mathrm{max}$.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

A search for point sources of EeV photons

Measurements of air showers made using the hybrid technique developed with the fluorescence and surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory allow a sensitive search for point sources of EeV photons anywhere in the exposed sky. A multivariate analysis reduces the background of hadronic cosmic rays. The search is sensitive to a declination band from -85{\deg} to +20{\deg}, in an energy range from 10^17.3 eV to 10^18.5 eV. No photon point source has been detected. An upper limit on the photon flux has been derived for every direction. The mean value of the energy flux limit that results from this, assuming a photon spectral index of -2, is 0.06 eV cm^-2 s^-1, and no celestial direction exceeds 0.25 eV cm^-2 s^-1. These upper limits constrain scenarios in which EeV cosmic ray protons are emitted by non-transient sources in the Galaxy.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa