The Madingley general ecosystem model predicts bushmeat yields, species extinction rates and ecosystem-level impacts of bushmeat harvesting

Traditional approaches to guiding decisions about harvesting bushmeat often employ single-species population dynamic models, which require species- and location-specific data, are missing ecological processes such as multi-trophic interactions, cannot represent multi-species harvesting and cannot predict the broader ecosystem impacts of harvesting. In order to explore an alternative approach to devising sustainable harvesting strategies, we employ the Madingley general ecosystem model, which can simulate ecosystem dynamics in response to multi-species harvesting given nothing other than location-specific climate data. We used the model to examine yield, extinctions and broader ecosystem impacts, for a range of harvesting intensities of duiker-sized endothermic herbivores. Duiker antelope (such as Cephalophus callipygus and Cephalophus dorsalis) are the most heavily hunted species in sub-Saharan Africa, contributing 34–95% of all bushmeat in the Congo Basin. Across a range of harvesting rates, the Madingley model gave estimates for optimal harvesting rate, and extinction rate, that were qualitatively and quantitatively similar to the estimates from conventional single-species Beverton–Holt model. Predicted yields were somewhat greater (around five times, on average) for the Madingley model than the Beverton–Holt, which is partly attributable to the fact that the Madingley simulates multi-species harvesting from an initially pristine ecosystem. Also, the Madingley model predicted a background local extinction probability for the target species of at least 10%. At medium and high levels of harvesting of duiker-sized herbivores, the Madingley model predicted statistically significant, but moderate, reductions in the densities of the targeted functional group; increases in small-bodied herbivores; decreases in large-bodied carnivores; and minimal ecosystem-level impacts overall. The results illustrate how general ecosystem models such as the Madingley model could potentially be used more widely to help estimate sustainable harvesting rates, bushmeat yields and broader ecosystem impacts across different locations and target species

Synergistic impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on model ecosystems

Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity, yet separating their effects is challenging. We use a multi-trophic, trait-based, and spatially explicit general ecosystem model to examine the independent and synergistic effects of these processes on ecosystem structure. We manipulated habitat by removing plant biomass in varying spatial extents, intensities, and configurations. We found that emergent synergistic interactions of loss and fragmentation are major determinants of ecosystem response, including population declines and trophic pyramid shifts. Furthermore, trait-mediated interactions, such as a disproportionate sensitivity of large-sized organisms to fragmentation, produce significant effects in shaping responses. We also show that top-down regulation mitigates the effects of land use on plant biomass loss, suggesting that models lacking these interactions—including most carbon stock models—may not adequately capture land-use change impacts. Our results have important implications for understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change, and assessing the impacts of habitat fragmentation

Ecological equivalence: a realistic assumption for niche theory as a testable alternative to neutral theory

Hubbell's 2001 neutral theory unifies biodiversity and biogeography by modelling steady-state distributions of species richness and abundances across spatio-temporal scales. Accurate predictions have issued from its core premise that all species have identical vital rates. Yet no ecologist believes that species are identical in reality. Here I explain this paradox in terms of the ecological equivalence that species must achieve at their coexistence equilibrium, defined by zero net fitness for all regardless of intrinsic differences between them. I show that the distinction of realised from intrinsic vital rates is crucial to evaluating community resilience. An analysis of competitive interactions reveals how zero-sum patterns of abundance emerge for species with contrasting life-history traits as for identical species. I develop a stochastic model to simulate community assembly from a random drift of invasions sustaining the dynamics of recruitment following deaths and extinctions. Species are allocated identical intrinsic vital rates for neutral dynamics, or random intrinsic vital rates and competitive abilities for niche dynamics either on a continuous scale or between dominant-fugitive extremes. Resulting communities have steady-state distributions of the same type for more or less extremely differentiated species as for identical species. All produce negatively skewed log-normal distributions of species abundance, zero-sum relationships of total abundance to area, and Arrhenius relationships of species to area. Intrinsically identical species nevertheless support fewer total individuals, because their densities impact as strongly on each other as on themselves. Truly neutral communities have measurably lower abundance/area and higher species/abundance ratios. Neutral scenarios can be parameterized as null hypotheses for testing competitive release, which is a sure signal of niche dynamics. Ignoring the true strength of interactions between and within species risks a substantial misrepresentation of community resilience to habitat los

Influences of Forest Structure, Climate and Species Composition on Tree Mortality across the Eastern US

Few studies have quantified regional variation in tree mortality, or explored whether species compositional changes or within-species variation are responsible for regional patterns, despite the fact that mortality has direct effects on the dynamics of woody biomass, species composition, stand structure, wood production and forest response to climate change. Using Bayesian analysis of over 430,000 tree records from a large eastern US forest database we characterised tree mortality as a function of climate, soils, species and size (stem diameter). We found (1) mortality is U-shaped vs. stem diameter for all 21 species examined; (2) mortality is hump-shaped vs. plot basal area for most species; (3) geographical variation in mortality is substantial, and correlated with several environmental factors; and (4) individual species vary substantially from the combined average in the nature and magnitude of their mortality responses to environmental variation. Regional variation in mortality is therefore the product of variation in species composition combined with highly varied mortality-environment correlations within species. The results imply that variation in mortality is a crucial part of variation in the forest carbon cycle, such that including this variation in models of the global carbon cycle could significantly narrow uncertainty in climate change predictions

The quality case for information technology in healthcare

BACKGROUND: As described in the Institute of Medicine's Crossing the Quality Chasm report, the quality of health care in the U.S. today leaves much to be desired. DISCUSSION: One major opportunity for improving quality relates to increasing the use of information technology, or IT. Health care organizations currently invest less in IT than in any other information-intensive industry, and not surprisingly current systems are relatively primitive, compared with industries such as banking or aviation. Nonetheless, a number of organizations have demonstrated that quality can be substantially improved in a variety of ways if IT use is increased in ways that improve care. Specifically, computerization of processes that are error-prone and computerized decision support may substantially improve both efficiency and quality, as well as dramatically facilitate quality measurement. This report discusses the current levels of IT and quality in health care, how quality improvement and management are currently done, the evidence that more IT might be helpful, a vision of the future, and the barriers to getting there. SUMMARY: This report suggests that there are five key policy domains that need to be addressed: standards, incentives, security and confidentiality, professional involvement, and research, with financial incentives representing the single most important lever

A new method to quantify and compare the multiple components of fitness-A study case with kelp niche partition by divergent microstage adaptations to Temperature

Point 1 Management of crops, commercialized or protected species, plagues or life-cycle evolution are subjects requiring comparisons among different demographic strategies. The simpler methods fail in relating changes in vital rates with changes in population viability whereas more complex methods lack accuracy by neglecting interactions among vital rates. Point 2 The difference between the fitness (evaluated by the population growth rate.) of two alternative demographies is decomposed into the contributions of the differences between the pair-wised vital rates and their interactions. This is achieved through a full Taylor expansion (i.e. remainder = 0) of the demographic model. The significance of each term is determined by permutation tests under the null hypothesis that all demographies come from the same pool. Point 3 An example is given with periodic demographic matrices of the microscopic haploid phase of two kelp cryptic species observed to partition their niche occupation along the Chilean coast. The method provided clear and synthetic results showing conditional differentiation of reproduction is an important driver for their differences in fitness along the latitudinal temperature gradient. But it also demonstrated that interactions among vital rates cannot be neglected as they compose a significant part of the differences between demographies. Point 4 This method allows researchers to access the effects of multiple effective changes in a life-cycle from only two experiments. Evolutionists can determine with confidence the effective causes for changes in fitness whereas population managers can determine best strategies from simpler experimental designs.CONICYT-FRENCH EMBASSADY Ph.D. gran

Steady-state modulation of voltage-gated K+ channels in rat arterial smooth muscle by cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase and protein phosphatase 2B

Voltage-gated potassium channels (Kv) are important regulators of membrane potential in vascular smooth muscle cells, which is integral to controlling intracellular Ca2+ concentration and regulating vascular tone. Previous work indicates that Kv channels can be modulated by receptor-driven alterations of cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) activity. Here, we demonstrate that Kv channel activity is maintained by tonic activity of PKA. Whole-cell recording was used to assess the effect of manipulating PKA signalling on Kv and ATP-dependent K+ channels of rat mesenteric artery smooth muscle cells. Application of PKA inhibitors, KT5720 or H89, caused a significant inhibition of Kv currents. Tonic PKA-mediated activation of Kv appears maximal as application of isoprenaline (a β-adrenoceptor agonist) or dibutyryl-cAMP failed to enhance Kv currents. We also show that this modulation of Kv by PKA can be reversed by protein phosphatase 2B/calcineurin (PP2B). PKA-dependent inhibition of Kv by KT5720 can be abrogated by pre-treatment with the PP2B inhibitor cyclosporin A, or inclusion of a PP2B auto-inhibitory peptide in the pipette solution. Finally, we demonstrate that tonic PKA-mediated modulation of Kv requires intact caveolae. Pre-treatment of the cells with methyl-β-cyclodextrin to deplete cellular cholesterol, or adding caveolin-scaffolding domain peptide to the pipette solution to disrupt caveolae-dependent signalling each attenuated PKA-mediated modulation of the Kv current. These findings highlight a novel, caveolae-dependent, tonic modulatory role of PKA on Kv channels providing new insight into mechanisms and the potential for pharmacological manipulation of vascular tone

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Crown Plasticity and Competition for Canopy Space: A New Spatially Implicit Model Parameterized for 250 North American Tree Species

BACKGROUND: Canopy structure, which can be defined as the sum of the sizes, shapes and relative placements of the tree crowns in a forest stand, is central to all aspects of forest ecology. But there is no accepted method for deriving canopy structure from the sizes, species and biomechanical properties of the individual trees in a stand. Any such method must capture the fact that trees are highly plastic in their growth, forming tessellating crown shapes that fill all or most of the canopy space. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We introduce a new, simple and rapidly-implemented model--the Ideal Tree Distribution, ITD--with tree form (height allometry and crown shape), growth plasticity, and space-filling, at its core. The ITD predicts the canopy status (in or out of canopy), crown depth, and total and exposed crown area of the trees in a stand, given their species, sizes and potential crown shapes. We use maximum likelihood methods, in conjunction with data from over 100,000 trees taken from forests across the coterminous US, to estimate ITD model parameters for 250 North American tree species. With only two free parameters per species--one aggregate parameter to describe crown shape, and one parameter to set the so-called depth bias--the model captures between-species patterns in average canopy status, crown radius, and crown depth, and within-species means of these metrics vs stem diameter. The model also predicts much of the variation in these metrics for a tree of a given species and size, resulting solely from deterministic responses to variation in stand structure. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This new model, with parameters for US tree species, opens up new possibilities for understanding and modeling forest dynamics at local and regional scales, and may provide a new way to interpret remote sensing data of forest canopies, including LIDAR and aerial photography