Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND: Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. METHODS: We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. FINDINGS: We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4-19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30-2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35-2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. INTERPRETATION: Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The US National Cholesterol Education Programme Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in a Chinese population

To assess the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome disease cluster in the Hong Kong Chinese population we applied the US National Cholesterol Education Programme Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) guidelines. This was present if ≥3 of the following conditions were present: Hypertension (≥130/85 mmHg); fasting plasma glucose was ≥6.1 mmol/L; fasting plasma triglycerides ≥1.69 mmol/L; fasting HDL-cholesterol 88 or 102 cm (Asian WHO criteria ≥80 or 90 cm) in females and males, respectively. A total of 16.7% (17.1 (95%CI 15.7-18.5)% age and gender-adjusted) of the 2893 subjects had the metabolic syndrome. The prevalence of having at least 2, 3, 4 or 5 components was 34.5, 16.7, 6.4 and 1.4%, respectively. The prevalence increased from 3.1% in those aged 25-29 years to 41.0% in those aged over 70 years. Using the 2001 Census, 880,499 Hong Kong residents would have the metabolic syndrome. If the WHO recommended waist circumference for Asians is used, the age and gender-adjusted prevalence is significantly higher at 21.2% (21.9 (95%CI 20.4-23.4)%). In summary, the high prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in adult Hong Kong Chinese, particularly in the elderly, forewarns a rapidly increasing problem in Mainland China, and other Asian populations, which may have overwhelming public health ramifications. © 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.postprin

Investigating the association between obesity and asthma in 6- to 8-year-old Saudi children:a matched case-control study

Background: Previous studies have demonstrated an association between obesity and asthma, but there remains considerable uncertainty about whether this reflects an underlying causal relationship. Aims: To investigate the association between obesity and asthma in pre-pubertal children and to investigate the roles of airway obstruction and atopy as possible causal mechanisms. Methods: We conducted an age- and sex-matched case–control study of 1,264 6- to 8-year-old schoolchildren with and without asthma recruited from 37 randomly selected schools in Madinah, Saudi Arabia. The body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and skin fold thickness of the 632 children with asthma were compared with those of the 632 control children without asthma. Associations between obesity and asthma, adjusted for other potential risk factors, were assessed separately in boys and girls using conditional logistic regression analysis. The possible mediating roles of atopy and airway obstruction were studied by investigating the impact of incorporating data on sensitisation to common aeroallergens and measurements of lung function. Results: BMI was associated with asthma in boys (odds ratio (OR)=1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08–1.20; adjusted OR=1.11, 95% CI, 1.03–1.19) and girls (OR=1.37, 95% CI, 1.26–1.50; adjusted OR=1.38, 95% CI, 1.23–1.56). Adjusting for forced expiratory volume in 1 s had a negligible impact on these associations, but these were attenuated following adjustment for allergic sensitisation, particularly in girls (girls: OR=1.25; 95% CI, 0.96–1.60; boys: OR=1.09, 95% CI, 0.99–1.19). Conclusions: BMI is associated with asthma in pre-pubertal Saudi boys and girls; this effect does not appear to be mediated through respiratory obstruction, but in girls this may at least partially be mediated through increased risk of allergic sensitisation

Prevalence and risk factors for myopia and other refractive errors in an adult population in southern India.

PURPOSE: To investigate prevalence and risk factors for myopia, hyperopia and astigmatism in southern India. METHODS: Randomly sampled villages were enumerated to identify people aged ≥40 years. Participants were interviewed for socioeconomic and lifestyle factors and attended a hospital-based ophthalmic examination including visual acuity measurement and objective and subjective measurement of refractive status. Myopia was defined as spherical equivalent (SE) worse than -0.75 dioptres (D), hyperopia as SE ≥+1D and astigmatism as cylinder <-0.5. RESULTS: The age-standardised prevalences of myopia, hyperopia and astigmatism were 35.6% (95% CI: 34.7-36.6), 17.0% (95% CI: 16.3-17.8) and 32.6 (29.3-36.1), respectively. Of those with myopia (n = 1490), 70% had advanced cataract. Of these, 79% had presenting visual acuity (VA) less than 6/18 and after best correction, 44% of these improved to 6/12 or better and 27% remained with VA less than 6/18. In multivariable analyses (excluding patients with advanced cataract), increasing nuclear opacity score, current tobacco use, and increasing height were associated with higher odds of myopia. Higher levels of education were associated with increased odds of myopia in younger people and decreased odds in older people. Increasing time outdoors was associated with myopia only in older people. Increasing age and female gender were associated with hyperopia, and nuclear opacity score, increasing time outdoors, rural residence and current tobacco use with lower odds of hyperopia. After controlling for myopia, factors associated with higher odds of astigmatism were age, rural residence, and increasing nuclear opacity score and increasing education with lower odds. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to high-income settings and in agreement with studies from low-income settings, we found a rise in myopia with increasing age reflecting the high prevalence of advanced cataract

How can onchocerciasis elimination in Africa be accelerated? Modelling the impact of increased ivermectin treatment frequency and complementary vector control

Background: Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated. Methods: We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination. Results: Areas with 40%–50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%–80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control. Conclusions: Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful

Activity loss is associated with cognitive decline in age-related macular degeneration.

BACKGROUND/METHODS: The objective of this study was to determine whether relinquishing cognitive, physical, and social activities is associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline in patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We conducted a 3-year longitudinal study of 206 nondemented patients with AMD. RESULTS: Twenty-three subjects (14.4%) declined cognitively. Age, sex, education, decline in visual acuity, and number of dropped activities were associated with cognitive decline; each additional dropped activity increased the risk by 58%. Subjects who relinquished three activities were 3.87 times (95% confidence interval, 1.95-7.76) more likely to become demented than subjects who relinquished no activities; those who relinquished five activities were 9.54 times (95% confidence interval, 3.05-30.43) more likely. A multivariate model demonstrated that number of dropped activities was a powerful predictor of cognitive decline after controlling for relevant risk factors, particularly for subjects younger than 80 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: Relinquishing valued activities is associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline in older patients with vision loss caused by AMD. These data suggest the importance of promoting optimal cognitive and physical health in patients with AMD and perhaps other chronic diseases

Genome-wide association study of knee pain identifies associations with GDF5 and COL27A1 in UK Biobank

Knee pain is one of the most common musculoskeletal complaints that brings people to medical attention. Approximately 50% of individuals over the age of 50 report an experience of knee pain within the past 12 months. We sought to identify the genetic variants associated with knee pain in 171,516 subjects from the UK Biobank cohort and seek supporting evidence in cohorts from 23andMe, the Osteoarthritis Initiative, and the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project. We identified two loci that reached genome-wide significance in the UK Biobank: rs143384, located in GDF5 (P = 1.32 × 10−12), a gene previously implicated in osteoarthritis; and rs2808772, located near COL27A1 (P = 1.49 × 10−8). These findings were supported in cohorts with self-reported osteoarthritis/radiographic knee osteoarthritis without pain information. In this report on genome-wide association of knee pain, we identified two loci in or near GDF5 and COL27A1 that are associated with knee pain

Protein misfolding and dysregulated protein homeostasis in autoinflammatory diseases and beyond.

Cells have a number of mechanisms to maintain protein homeostasis, including proteasome-mediated degradation of ubiquitinated proteins and autophagy, a regulated process of ‘self-eating’ where the contents of entire organelles can be recycled for other uses. The unfolded protein response prevents protein overload in the secretory pathway. In the past decade, it has become clear that these fundamental cellular processes also help contain inflammation though degrading pro-inflammatory protein complexes such as the NLRP3 inflammasome. Signaling pathways such as the UPR can also be co-opted by toll-like receptor and mitochondrial reactive oxygen species signaling to induce inflammatory responses. Mutations that alter key inflammatory proteins, such as NLRP3 or TNFR1, can overcome normal protein homeostasis mechanisms, resulting in autoinflammatory diseases. Conversely, Mendelian defects in the proteasome cause protein accumulation, which can trigger interferon-dependent autoinflammatory disease. In non-Mendelian inflammatory diseases, polymorphisms in genes affecting the UPR or autophagy pathways can contribute to disease, and in diseases not formerly considered inflammatory such as neurodegenerative conditions and type 2 diabetes, there is increasing evidence that cell intrinsic or environmental alterations in protein homeostasis may contribute to pathogenesis