A novel approach to quantify random error explicitly in epidemiological studies

The most frequently used methods for handling random error are largely misunderstood or misused by researchers. We propose a simple approach to quantify the amount of random error which does not require solid background in statistics for its proper interpretation. This method may help researchers refrain from oversimplistic interpretations relying on statistical significance

Exploring the interactions between Helicobacter pylori (Hp) infection and other risk factors of gastric cancer: A pooled analysis in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

Helicobacter pylori (Hp) is crucial in gastric carcinogenesis, but infection alone is not a sufficient cause, and the interaction between Hp infection and other risk factors has not been adequately studied. We conducted a pooled analysis of seven case-control studies from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, comprising 1377 cases and 2470 controls, to explore the interaction among Hp infection and tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, socioeconomic status (SES) and dietary salt intake on the risk of gastric cancer. We estimated summary odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by multivariate unconditional logistic regression. The analysis showed no consistent interaction between Hp infection and cigarette smoking, while interaction was more than multiplicative for alcohol drinking (OR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.07-1.77, P-interaction 0.02) and high intake of salt (OR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.88-3.65, P-interaction = 0.04). The interaction with SES followed the multiplicative model (P = 0.49), resulting in a weakening among infected individuals of the protective effect of high SES among observed Hp-negative individuals. The interactions found were more pronounced in subjects with history of peptic ulcer. The interactions with Hp infection were stronger for cigarette smoking and dietary salt in the case of noncardia cancer, and for alcohol and SES in the case of cardia cancer. No differences were found when stratifying for histologic type. This large-scale study aimed to quantify the interaction between Hp infection and other modifiable risk factors of gastric cancer revealed that the benefit of combined Hp eradication and lifestyle modification on gastric cancer prevention may be larger than commonly appreciated.This study was supported by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC), Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant), and by the Italian League for the Fight Against Cancer (LILT). The authors thank the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for providing support for the StoP meetings

Identifying the Profile of Helicobacter pylori-Negative Gastric Cancers: A Case-Only Analysis within the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

Background: The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori-negative gastric cancer (HpNGC) can be as low as 1%, when infection is assessed using more sensitive tests or considering the presence of gastric atrophy. HpNGC may share a high-risk profile contributing to the occurrence of cancer in the absence of infection. We estimated the proportion of HpNGC, using different criteria to define infection status, and compared HpNGC and positive cases regarding gastric cancer risk factors. Methods: Cases from 12 studies from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project providing data on H. pylori infection status determined by serologic test were included. HpNGC was reclassified as positive (eight studies) when cases presented CagA markers (four studies), gastric atrophy (six studies), or advanced stage at diagnosis (three studies), and were compared with positive cases. A two-stage approach (random-effects models) was used to pool study-specific prevalence and adjusted odds ratios (OR). Results: Among non-cardia cases, the pooled prevalence of HpNGC was 22.4% (n = 166/853) and decreased to 7.0% (n = 55) when considering CagA status; estimates for all criteria were 21.8% (n = 276/1, 325) and 6.6% (n = 97), respectively. HpNGC had a family history of gastric cancer more often [OR = 2.18; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-4.61] and were current smokers (OR = 2.16; 95% CI, 0.52-9.02). Conclusion: This study found a low prevalence of HpNGC, who are more likely to have a family history of gastric cancer in first-degree relatives. Impact: Our results support that H. pylori infection is present in most non-cardia gastric cancers, and suggest that HpNGC may have distinct patterns of exposure to other risk factors.S. Morais, B. Peleteiro, N. Araújo, and N. Lunet received national funding from the Foundation for Science and Technology – FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education), under the Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia – Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit; UIDB/04750/2020). S. Morais received funding under the scope of the project “NEON-PC - Neuro-oncological complications of prostate cancer: longitudinal study of cognitive decline” (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032358; ref. PTDC/SAU-EPI/32358/2017) funded by FEDER through the Operational Program Competitiveness and Internationalization, and national funding from FCT, and the EPIunit – Junior Research – Prog Financing (UIDP/04750/2020). N. Araújo received an individual grant (SFRH/BD/119390/2016) funded by FCT and the ‘Programa Operacional Capital Humano’ (POCH/FSE). C. La Vecchia received funding from the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC, investigator grant no. 21378). All authors received support from the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for project meetings. All authors thank all MCC-Spain study collaborators (CIBERESP, ISCIII, ISGlobal, ICO, University of Huelva, University of Oviedo, University of Cantabria, University of León, ibs. Granada, Instituto Salud Pública de Navarra, FISABIO, Murcia Regional Health Authority and cols). The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact

Family history and gastric cancer risk: A pooled investigation in the stomach cancer pooling (STOP) project consortium

Research is still required to establish the relationship between family history (FH) and gastric cancer (GC) in relation to different histological types and anatomical sites. The present work aimed to examine the influence of first-degree FH on the risk of GC, also according to the GC location and histological type, including 5946 cases and 12,776 controls from 17 studies of 11 countries in three continents participating in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. This analysis confirms the effect of FH on the risk of GC, reporting an approximately doubled risk, and provides further quantification of the risk of GC according to the subsite and histotype. Although there is a clear relationship between family history (FH) and the risk of gastric cancer (GC), quantification is still needed in relation to different histological types and anatomical sites, and in strata of covariates. The objective was to analyze the risk of GC according to first-degree FH in a uniquely large epidemiological consortium of GC. This investigation includes 5946 cases and 12,776 controls from 17 studies of the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. Summary odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by pooling study-specific ORs using fixed-effect model meta-analysis techniques. Stratified analyses were carried out by sex, age, tumor location and histological type, smoking habit, socioeconomic status, alcohol intake and fruit consumption. The pooled OR for GC was 1.84 (95% CI: 1.64-2.04; I2 = 6.1%, P heterogeneity = 0.383) in subjects with vs. those without first-degree relatives with GC. No significant differences were observed among subgroups of sex, age, geographic area or study period. Associations tended to be stronger for non-cardia (OR = 1.82; 95% CI: 1.59-2.05 for subjects with FH) than for cardia GC (OR = 1.38; 95% CI: 0.98-1.77), and for the intestinal (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.62-2.23) than for the diffuse histotype (OR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.28-1.96). This analysis confirms the effect of FH on the risk of GC, reporting an approximately doubled risk, and provides further quantification of the risk of GC according to the subsite and histotype. Considering these findings, accounting for the presence of FH to carry out correct prevention and diagnosis measures is of the utmost importance

Salt intake and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

Purpose: Previous studies show that consuming foods preserved by salting increases the risk of gastric cancer, while results on the association between total salt or added salt and gastric cancer are less consistent and vary with the exposure considered. This study aimed to quantify the association between dietary salt exposure and gastric cancer, using an individual participant data meta-analysis of studies participating in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. Methods: Data from 25 studies (10,283 cases and 24,643 controls) from the StoP Project with information on salt taste preference (tasteless, normal, salty), use of table salt (never, sometimes, always), total sodium intake (tertiles of grams/day), and high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake (tertiles of grams/day) were used. A two-stage approach based on random-effects models was used to pool study-specific adjusted (sex, age, and gastric cancer risk factors) odds ratios (aORs), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Gastric cancer risk was higher for salty taste preference (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.25–2.03), always using table salt (aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.16–1.54), and for the highest tertile of high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.51) vs. the lowest tertile. No significant association was observed for the highest vs. the lowest tertile of total sodium intake (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 0.82–1.43). The results obtained were consistent across anatomic sites, strata of Helicobacter pylori infection, and sociodemographic, lifestyle and study characteristics. Conclusion: Salty taste preference, always using table salt, and a greater high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake increased the risk of gastric cancer, though the association was less robust with total sodium intake. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.This study was funded by national funds from the Foundation for Science and Technology—FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education), under the Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia—Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit; UIDB/04750/2020), by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC), Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant), and the Agency for Management of University and Research Grants (AGAUR) of the Catalan Government (Grant 2017SGR723). AC and SM were funded under the scope of the project "NEON-PC—Neuro-oncological complications of prostate cancer: longitudinal study of cognitive decline" (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032358; ref. PTDC/SAU-EPI/32358/2017). SM was also funded under EPIUnit—Junior Research—Prog Financing (UIDP/04750/2020). An individual grant attributed to NA (SFRH/BD/119390/2016) was funded by FCT and the ‘Programa Operacional Capital Humano’ (POCH/FSE). The authors thank the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for providing support for the project meetings, all MCC-Spain study collaborators (CIBERESP, ISCIII, ISGlobal, ICO, University of Huelva, University of Oviedo, University of Cantabria, University of León, ibs. Granada, Instituto Salud Pública de Navarra, FISABIO, Murcia Regional Health Authority and cols). The funding sources had no role in the study design; collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the article for publication

Education and gastric cancer risk-An individual participant data meta-analysis in the StoP project consortium

Low socioeconomic position (SEP) is a strong risk factor for incidence and premature mortality from several cancers. Our study aimed at quantifying the association between SEP and gastric cancer (GC) risk through an individual participant data meta-analysis within the "Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project". Educational level and household income were used as proxies for the SEP. We estimated pooled odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) across levels of education and household income by pooling study-specific ORs through random-effects meta-analytic models. The relative index of inequality (RII) was also computed. A total of 9,773 GC cases and 24,373 controls from 25 studies from Europe, Asia and America were included. The pooled OR for the highest compared to the lowest level of education was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.44-0.84), while the pooled RII was 0.45 (95% CI, 0.29-0.69). A strong inverse association was observed both for noncardia (OR 0.39, 95% CI, 0.22-0.70) and cardia GC (OR 0.47, 95% CI, 0.22-0.99). The relation was stronger among H. pylori negative subjects (RII 0.14, 95% CI, 0.04-0.48) as compared to H. pylori positive ones (RII 0.29, 95% CI, 0.10-0.84), in the absence of a significant interaction (p\u2009=\u20090.28). The highest household income category showed a pooled OR of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.48-0.89), while the corresponding RII was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.22-0.72). Our collaborative pooled-analysis showed a strong inverse relationship between SEP indicators and GC risk. Our data call for public health interventions to reduce GC risk among the more vulnerable groups of the population

Fish consumption and the risk of gastric cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gastric cancer is the fourth most frequently occurring malignancy after lung, breast, and colorectal cancer, and the second most common cause of death from cancer worldwide. Epidemiologic studies have examined the possible association between fish consumption and gastric cancer, but the results were inconclusive. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the association between fish intake and the risk of gastric cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>PubMed was searched for studies published in English-language journals from 1991 through 2009. We identified 17 epidemiologic studies (15 case-control and 2 cohort studies) that included relative risks (RRs) or odds ratios (ORs) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the relationship between gastric cancer and fish consumption. Data were extracted using standardized data forms. Summary RRs or ORs for the highest versus non/lowest fish consumption levels were calculated using random-effects model. Heterogeneity among studies was examined using Q and I²statistics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this study, 5,323 cases of gastric cancer and over 130,000 non-cases were included. The combined results from all studies indicated that the association between high fish consumption and reduced gastric cancer risk was not statistically insignificant (RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.71-1.07).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Current evidence indicated that the association between fish consumption and risk of gastric cancer remains unclear.</p

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents’ growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income&nbsp;countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was &lt;1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of&nbsp;countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.814.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.871.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.027.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.327.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.323.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.487.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.183.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.160.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally. (c) 2023, The Author(s)