Bias, accuracy, and impact of indirect genetic effects in infectious diseases

Selection for improved host response to infectious disease offers a desirable alternative to chemical treatment but has proven difficult in practice, due to low heritability estimates of disease traits. Disease data from field studies is often binary, indicating whether an individual has become infected or not following exposure to an infectious disease. Numerous studies have shown that from this data one can infer genetic variation in individuals’ underlying susceptibility. In a previous study, we showed that with an indirect genetic effect (IGE) model it is possible to capture some genetic variation in infectivity, if present, as well as in susceptibility. Infectivity is the propensity of transmitting infection upon contact with a susceptible individual. It is an important factor determining the severity of an epidemic. However, there are severe shortcomings with the Standard IGE models as they do not accommodate the dynamic nature of disease data. Here we adjust the Standard IGE model to (1) make expression of infectivity dependent on the individuals’ disease status (Case Model) and (2) to include timing of infection (Case-ordered Model). The models are evaluated by comparing impact of selection, bias, and accuracy of each model using simulated binary disease data. These were generated for populations with known variation in susceptibility and infectivity thus allowing comparisons between estimated and true breeding values. Overall the Case Model provided better estimates for host genetic susceptibility and infectivity compared to the Standard Model in terms of bias, impact, and accuracy. Furthermore, these estimates were strongly influenced by epidemiological characteristics. However, surprisingly, the Case-Ordered model performed considerably worse than the Standard and the Case Models, pointing toward limitations in incorporating disease dynamics into conventional variance component estimation methodology and software used in animal breeding

The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production

This paper examines the behavior of a competitive firm that faces joint price and inflation risk. Given that the price risk is negatively correlated with the inflation risk in the sense of expectation dependence, we show that the firm optimally opts for an over-hedge (under-hedge) if the firm’s coefficient of relative risk aversion is everywhere no greater (no smaller) than unity. We show further that banning the firm from forward trading may induce the firm to produce more or less, depending on whether the price risk premium is positive or negative, respectively. While the price risk premium is unambiguously negative in the absence of the inflation risk, it is not the case when the inflation risk prevails. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, forward hedging needs not always promote production should firms take inflation seriously.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Selective advantage of implementing optimal contributions selection and timescales for the convergence of long-term genetic contributions

Additional file 1: Figure S1. Accumulation of long-term genetic contributions over time with a line of best fit

A qualitative study of the views of patients with long-term conditions on family doctors in Hong Kong

<b>Background</b> Primary care based management of long-term conditions (LTCs) is high on the international healthcare agenda, including the Asia-Pacific region. Hong Kong has a 'mixed economy' healthcare system with both public and private sectors with a range of types of primary care doctors. Recent Hong Kong Government policy aims to enhance the management of LTCs in primary care possibly based on a 'family doctor' model. Patients' views on this are not well documented and the aim of the present study was to explore the views of patients with LTCs on family doctors in Hong Kong.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> The views of patients (with a variety of LTCs) on family doctors in Hong Kong were explored. Two groups of participants were interviewed; a) those who considered themselves as having a family doctor, b) those who considered themselves as not having a family doctor (either with a regular primary care doctor but not a family doctor or with no regular primary care doctor). In-depth individual semi-structured interviews were carried out with 28 participants (10 with a family doctor, 10 with a regular doctor, and 8 with no regular doctor) and analysed using the constant comparative method.<p></p> <b>Results</b> Participants who did not have a family doctor were familiar with the concept but regarded it as a 'luxury item' for the rich within the private healthcare system. Those with a regular family doctor (all private) regarded having one as important to their and their family's health. Participants in both groups felt that as well as the more usual family medicine specialist or general practitioner, traditional Chinese medicine practitioners also had the potential to be family doctors. However most participants attended the public healthcare system for management of their LTCs whether they had a family doctor or not. Cost, perceived need, quality, trust, and choice were all barriers to the use of family doctors for the management of their LTCs.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> Important barriers to the adoption of a 'family doctor' model of management of LTCs exist in Hong Kong. Effective policy implementation seems unlikely unless these complex barriers are addressed