Frontiers of marine science

On 9–13 October 2010 early career scientists from the UK and Australia across marine research fields were given the opportunity to come together in Perth, Australia to discuss the frontiers of marine research and exchange ideas

Modelling the Shetland sandeel stock

Young sandeels (0- and 1-group fish) form a substantial part of the total stock biomass at Shetland. As well as forming the basis for a local fishery at Shetland, they are also an extremely important prey item for many seabird species which breed around Shetland coasts. Improving our understanding of recruitment dynamics is vital for managing the Shetland fishery whilst minimizing adverse affects on breeding seabirds. Therefore, this thesis has concentrated on analyzing recruitment patterns and developing models to simulate hypothetical recruitment scenarios. Various models were developed and/or parameterised to simulate recruitment. Firstly, as there appeared to be no clearly defined stock-recruit relationship, time series models were applied to expose and improve understanding of patterns in the data. However, the relationship between stock and recruitment cannot be ignored if spawning stock biomass changes through exploitation. Therefore, Shepherd (1982) and Ricker (1954, 1975) stock-recruit models are parameterised using bootstrap analysis. For the Shepherd model, which is the more complex of the two, bootstrap analysis identified models which could be considered as "constant recruitment" models - that is no influence of spawning stock biomass on recruitment. It was found that four very low recruit years, which occurred in the late 1980s when spawning stock biomass was generally high or moderate, were strongly influencing model fit. This prompted the question: are these low recruit years typical of the range of recruitment for the given spawning stock biomasses or can they be considered outliers? In the face of uncertainty (although there is no biological reasoning) these data points were removed and the stock-recruit models re-parameterised. This enabled curves with 95% confidence intervals to be parameterised for both stock-recruit models (Shepherd & Ricker). The autoregressive model parameterised earlier was combined with the stock-recruit models so recruitment in any year was expressed as a function of SSB and of recruitment in the previous year

Implications of climate change for Australian fisheries and aquaculture: a preliminary assessment

This review finds that there are likely to be significant climate change impacts on the biological, economic, and social aspects of Australian fisheries and that there is little consolidated knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change. Both positive and negative impacts are expected, and impacts will vary according to changes in the regional environment: south-east fisheries are most likely to be affected by changes in water temperature, northern fisheries by changes in precipitation, and western fisheries by changes in the Leeuwin Current. There may be new opportunities for some wild fisheries where tropical species shift southward. There will also be many challenges, such as that faced by the Tasmanian salmon aquaculture industry due to Atlantic salmon being cultivated close to their upper thermal limits of optimal growth. Nevertheless, the report also highlights that there is potential for adaptation measures to be employed by the industry. The report also notes the need for fisheries and aquaculture management policies to better integrate the effects of climate variability and climate change in establishing harvest levels and developing future strategies. This will enhance the resilience of marine biodiversity and the adaptive capacity of the fisheries and aquaculture industries

Coral Reef Ecosystems under Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

Coral reefs are found in a wide range of environments, where they provide food and habitat to a large range of organisms as well as providing many other ecological goods and services. Warm-water coral reefs, for example, occupy shallow sunlit, warm, and alkaline waters in order to grow and calcify at the high rates necessary to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures. At deeper locations (40–150 m), “mesophotic” (low light) coral reefs accumulate calcium carbonate at much lower rates (if at all in some cases) yet remain important as habitat for a wide range of organisms, including those important for fisheries. Finally, even deeper, down to 2,000 m or more, the so-called “cold-water” coral reefs are found in the dark depths. Despite their importance, coral reefs are facing significant challenges from human activities including pollution, over-harvesting, physical destruction, and climate change. In the latter case, even lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios (such as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5) are likely drive the elimination of most warm-water coral reefs by 2040–2050. Cold-water corals are also threatened by warming temperatures and ocean acidification although evidence of the direct effect of climate change is less clear. Evidence that coral reefs can adapt at rates which are sufficient for them to keep up with rapid ocean warming and acidification is minimal, especially given that corals are long-lived and hence have slow rates of evolution. Conclusions that coral reefs will migrate to higher latitudes as they warm are equally unfounded, with the observations of tropical species appearing at high latitudes “necessary but not sufficient” evidence that entire coral reef ecosystems are shifting. On the contrary, coral reefs are likely to degrade rapidly over the next 20 years, presenting fundamental challenges for the 500 million people who derive food, income, coastal protection, and a range of other services from coral reefs. Unless rapid advances to the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement occur over the next decade, hundreds of millions of people are likely to face increasing amounts of poverty and social disruption, and, in some cases, regional insecurity

Climate change and marine vertebrates

Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species

Spatial scales of variance in abundance of intertidal species: effects of region, dispersal mode, and trophic level

Determination of the pattern of variation in population abundance among spatial scales offers much insight into the potential regulating factors. Here we offer a method of quantifying spatial variance on a range of scales derived by sampling of irregularly spaced sites along complex coastlines. We use it to determine whether the nature of spatial variance depends on the trophic level or the mode of dispersal of the species involved and the role of the complexity of the underlying habitat. A least-cost distance model was used to determine distances by sea between all pairs of sites. Ordination of this distance matrix using multidimensional scaling allowed estimation of variance components with hierarchical ANOVA at nested spatial scales using spatial windows. By repeatedly moving these spatial windows and using a second set of spatial scales, average variance scale functions were derived for 50+ species in the UK rocky intertidal. Variance spectra for most species were well described by the inverse power law (1/f?) for noise spectra, with values for the exponent ranging from 0 to 1.1. At higher trophic levels (herbivores and carnivores), those species with planktonic dispersal had significantly higher ? values, indicating greater large- than small-scale variability, as did those on simpler coastlines (southwestern England and Wales vs. western Scotland). Average abundance and proportional incidence of species had the strongest influence on ? values, with those of intermediate abundance and incidence having much greater large-scale variance (? ? 0.5) than rare or ubiquitous species (? ? 0)

Responses of marine organisms to climate change across oceans

Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species\u27 responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species\u27 responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals)

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species’ responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species’ responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals)

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change

Climate Velocity Can Inform Conservation in a Warming World

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions