Disentangling the spatial and temporal causes of decline in a bird population

The difficulties in understanding the underlying reasons of a population decline lie in the typical short duration of field studies, the often too small size already reached by a declining population or the multitude of environmental factors that may influence population trend. In this difficult context, useful demographic tools such as integrated population models (IPM) may help disentangling the main reasons for a population decline. To understand why a hoopoe Upupa epops population has declined, we followed a three step model analysis. We built an IPM structured with respect to habitat quality (approximated by the expected availability of mole crickets, the main prey in our population) and estimated the contributions of habitat-specific demographic rates to population variation and decline. We quantified how much each demographic rate has decreased and investigated whether habitat quality influenced this decline. We tested how much weather conditions and research activities contributed to the decrease in the different demographic rates. The decline of the hoopoe population was mainly explained by a decrease in first-year apparent survival and a reduced number of fledglings produced, particularly in habitats of high quality. Since a majority of pairs bred in habitats of the highest quality, the decrease in the production of locally recruited yearlings in high-quality habitat was the main driver of the population decline despite a homogeneous drop of recruitment across habitats. Overall, the explanatory variables we tested only accounted for 19% of the decrease in the population growth rate. Among these variables, the effects of spring temperature (49% of the explained variance) contributed more to population decline than spring precipitation (36%) and research activities (maternal capture delay, 15%). This study shows the power of IPMs for identifying the vital rates involved in population declines and thus paves the way for targeted conservation and management actions

Sex-specific heterogeneity in fixed morphological traits influences individual fitness in a monogamous bird population

Theoretical work has emphasized the important role of individual traits on population dynamics, but empirical models are often based on average or stage-dependent demographic rates. In this study on a monogamous bird, the Eurasian hoopoe (Upupa epops), we show how the interactions between male and female fixed and dynamic heterogeneity influence demographic rates and population dynamics. We built an integral projection model including individual sex, age, condition (reflecting dynamic heterogeneity) and fixed morphology (reflecting fixed heterogeneity). Fixed morphology was derived from a principal component analysis of six morphological traits. Our results revealed that reproductive success and survival were linked to fixed heterogeneity whereas dynamic heterogeneity influenced mainly the timing of reproduction. Fixed heterogeneity had major consequences for the population growth rate, but interestingly, its effect on population dynamics differed between the sexes. Female fixed morphology was directly linked to annual reproductive success whereas male fixed morphology influenced also annual survival, being twice higher in large than in small males. Even in a monogamous bird with shared parental care, large males can reach 10\% higher fitness than females. Including the dynamics of male and female individual traits in population models refines our understanding of the individual mechanisms that influence demographic rates and population dynamics and can help identifying differences in sex-specific strategies

Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

Understanding how the natural world will be impacted by environmental change over the coming decades is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity. Addressing this challenge is difficult because environmental change can generate both population level plastic and evolutionary responses, with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive. Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full machinery of the evolutionarily explicit models we develop will be needed to predict responses to environmental change, or whether simpler non-evolutionary models that are now widely constructed may be sufficient

Modeling Adaptive and Nonadaptive Responses of Populations to Environmental Change

Understanding how the natural world will be impacted by environmental change over the coming decades is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity. Addressing this challenge is difficult because environmental change can generate both population level plastic and evolutionary responses, with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive. Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full machinery of the evolutionarily explicit models we develop will be needed to predict responses to environmental change, or whether simpler non-evolutionary models that are now widely constructed may be sufficient

Workshop on Mitigation Measures to Reduce Bycatch of Short-Beaked Common Dolphins in the Bay of Biscay (WKEMBYC2)

Peer reviewe

Variabilité des trajectoires de vie individuelles et ses conséquences sur la dynamique de population : le cas du chevreuil

Roe deer give birth each year in May. At each reproductive event, a female can be in different reproductive statuses: breeder or non breeder and can wean a variable number of offspring. The successive transitions between the different statuses of a given female give its individual reproductive trajectory. The performance of a given trajectory is assessed by its fitness which can be approximated by the total number of offspring weaned during the trajectory. Different individual life-history trajectories can exist in a same population and these different trajectories can reach similar or different fitness. This suggests that different strategies can be chosen by different individuals to reach the same fitness but also that individuals of high quality can reach higher fitness than individuals of low quality. The study of a roe deer population located in North-Eastern France allowed analyzing the sources and the consequences of individual heterogeneity on individual life-history trajectories and on population dynamics. This work showed that roe deer individual reproductive trajectories are consistent for a given female such as high quality females have an annual reproductive success higher than low-quality females. Female quality is partly generated by birth condition such as birth date and environmental conditions at birth. Individual life-history trajectories vary also randomly in relation to annual environmental conditions. In particular, climate change led to a decline in annual mean reproductive success and a decrease of the population growth rate in the last decades in relation to an increase of the mismatch between vegetation phenology and roe deer birth period. This work discussed how individual heterogeneity is generated in a long-lived species and how it influences individual life-history strategies and population dynamicsLe chevreuil met bas chaque année en mai. À chaque évènement de reproduction, une femelle peut être dans différents états : reproducteur ou non reproducteur et elle peut élever un nombre variable de jeunes. La succession des transitions entre ces différents états constitue la trajectoire de reproduction d’un individu tout au long de sa vie. Chaque trajectoire est donc individuelle et la valeur de cette trajectoire une fois terminée est appréciée par sa valeur sélective qui peut être estimée comme le nombre de petits élevés au cours de la vie d’un individu. Différentes trajectoires individuelles peuvent exister au sein d’une même population et conduire à des valeurs sélectives similaires ou différentes montrant que différentes stratégies sont possibles pour atteindre la même valeur sélective mais aussi que certains individus de meilleure qualité peuvent atteindre une valeur sélective plus élevée que des individus de moins bonne qualité. L’étude d’une population de chevreuil située dans le Nord-Est de la France a permis d’étudier les sources et les conséquences de cette hétérogénéité individuelle sur les trajectoires d’histoire de vie individuelles et sur la dynamique de cette population. Ce travail de thèse a montré que chez le chevreuil, une trajectoire reproductive individuelle est en partie homogène et que les femelles de bonne qualité ont un succès annuel constant et plus marqué que les femelles de mauvaise qualité. La qualité de ces femelles est influencée par les conditions à la naissance comme la date de naissance et les conditions environnementales au cours de leur développement. Les trajectoires individuelles varient également aléatoirement en fonction des conditions environnementales annuelles. Ces dernières décennies, le changement climatique a donné naissance à un mismatch grandissant entre la période des mise-bas du chevreuil et la disponibilité en ressources qui a provoqué une diminution du succès reproducteur et de la croissance de la population. Ce travail a permis de discuter comment l’hétérogénéité individuelle est générée chez une espèce longévive et comment elle influence les stratégies démographiques et la dynamique de cette populatio