Forces on Bins - The Effect of Random Friction

In this note we re-examine the classic Janssen theory for stresses in bins, including a randomness in the friction coefficient. The Janssen analysis relies on assumptions not met in practice; for this reason, we numerically solve the PDEs expressing balance of momentum in a bin, again including randomness in friction.Comment: 11 pages, LaTeX, with 9 figures encoded, gzippe

The impact of predation by marine mammals on Patagonian toothfish longline fisheries

Predatory interaction of marine mammals with longline fisheries is observed globally, leading to partial or complete loss of the catch and in some parts of the world to considerable financial loss. Depredation can also create additional unrecorded fishing mortality of a stock and has the potential to introduce bias to stock assessments. Here we aim to characterise depredation in the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) fishery around South Georgia focusing on the spatio-temporal component of these interactions. Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), and orcas (Orcinus orca) frequently feed on fish hooked on longlines around South Georgia. A third of longlines encounter sperm whales, but loss of catch due to sperm whales is insignificant when compared to that due to orcas, which interact with only 5% of longlines but can take more than half of the catch in some cases. Orca depredation around South Georgia is spatially limited and focused in areas of putative migration routes, and the impact is compounded as a result of the fishery also concentrating in those areas at those times. Understanding the seasonal behaviour of orcas and the spatial and temporal distribution of “depredation hot spots” can reduce marine mammal interactions, will improve assessment and management of the stock and contribute to increased operational efficiency of the fishery. Such information is valuable in the effort to resolve the human-mammal conflict for resources

Pattern and process in Amazon tree turnover, 1976-2001

Previous work has shown that tree turnover, tree biomass and large liana densities have increased in mature tropical forest plots in the late twentieth century. These results point to a concerted shift in forest ecological processes that may already be having significant impacts on terrestrial carbon stocks, fluxes and biodiversity. However, the findings have proved controversial, partly because a rather limited number of permanent plots have been monitored for rather short periods. The aim of this paper is to characterize regional-scale patterns of 'tree turnover' (the rate with which trees die and recruit into a population) by using improved datasets now available for Amazonia that span the past 25 years. Specifically, we assess whether concerted changes in turnover are occurring, and if so whether they are general throughout the Amazon or restricted to one region or environmental zone. In addition, we ask whether they are driven by changes in recruitment, mortality or both. We find that: (i) trees 10 cm or more in diameter recruit and die twice as fast on the richer soils of southern and western Amazonia than on the poorer soils of eastern and central Amazonia; (ii) turnover rates have increased throughout Amazonia over the past two decades; (iii) mortality and recruitment rates have both increased significantly in every region and environmental zone, with the exception of mortality in eastern Amazonia; (iv) recruitment rates have consistently exceeded mortality rates; (v) absolute increases in recruitment and mortality rates are greatest in western Amazonian sites; and (vi) mortality appears to be lagging recruitment at regional scales. These spatial patterns and temporal trends are not caused by obvious artefacts in the data or the analyses. The trends cannot be directly driven by a mortality driver (such as increased drought or fragmentation-related death) because the biomass in these forests has simultaneously increased. Our findings therefore indicate that long-acting and widespread environmental changes are stimulating the growth and productivity of Amazon forests

An international network to monitor the structure, composition and dynamics of Amazonian forests (RAINFOR)

The Amazon basin is likely to be increasingly affected by environmental changes: higher temperatures, changes in precipitation, CO2 fertilization and habitat fragmentation. To examine the important ecological and biogeochemical consequences of these changes, we are developing an international network, RAINFOR, which aims to monitor forest biomass and dynamics across Amazonia in a co-ordinated fashion in order to understand their relationship to soil and climate. The network will focus on sample plots established by independent researchers, some providing data extending back several decades. We will also conduct rapid transect studies of poorly monitored regions. Field expeditions analysed local soil and plant properties in the first phase (2001–2002). Initial results suggest that the network has the potential to reveal much information on the continental-scale relations between forest and environment. The network will also serve as a forum for discussion between researchers, with the aim of standardising sampling techniques and methodologies that will enable Amazonian forests to be monitored in a coherent manner in the coming decades

Comparison between Suitable Priors for Additive Bayesian Networks

Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables. When fitting an ABN model, the choice of the prior of the parameters is of crucial importance. If an inadequate prior - like a too weakly informative one - is used, data separation and data sparsity lead to issues in the model selection process. In this work a simulation study between two weakly and a strongly informative priors is presented. As weakly informative prior we use a zero mean Gaussian prior with a large variance, currently implemented in the R-package abn. The second prior belongs to the Student's t-distribution, specifically designed for logistic regressions and, finally, the strongly informative prior is again Gaussian with mean equal to true parameter value and a small variance. We compare the impact of these priors on the accuracy of the learned additive Bayesian network in function of different parameters. We create a simulation study to illustrate Lindley's paradox based on the prior choice. We then conclude by highlighting the good performance of the informative Student's t-prior and the limited impact of the Lindley's paradox. Finally, suggestions for further developments are provided.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

A multi-layer extension of the stochastic heat equation

Motivated by recent developments on solvable directed polymer models, we define a 'multi-layer' extension of the stochastic heat equation involving non-intersecting Brownian motions.Comment: v4: substantially extended and revised versio

Healthcare resource utilisation and mortality outcomes in international migrants to the UK: analysis protocol for a linked population-based cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) [version 2; peer review: 1 approved with reservations, 1 not approved]

An estimated 14.2% (9.34 million people) of people living in the UK in 2019 were international migrants. Despite this, there are no large-scale national studies of their healthcare resource utilisation and little is known about how migrants access and use healthcare services. One ongoing study of migration health in the UK, the Million Migrants study, links electronic health records (EHRs) from hospital-based data, national death records and Public Health England migrant and refugee data. However, the Million Migrants study cannot provide a complete picture of migration health resource utilisation as it lacks data on migrants from Europe and utilisation of primary care for all international migrants. Our study seeks to address this limitation by using primary care EHR data linked to hospital-based EHRs and national death records.  Our study is split into a feasibility study and a main study. The feasibility study will assess the validity of a migration phenotype, a transparent reproducible algorithm using clinical terminology codes to determine migration status in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), the largest UK primary care EHR. If the migration phenotype is found to be valid, the main study will involve using the phenotype in the linked dataset to describe primary care and hospital-based healthcare resource utilisation and mortality in migrants compared to non-migrants. All outcomes will be explored according to sub-conditions identified as research priorities through patient and public involvement, including preventable causes of inpatient admission, sexual and reproductive health conditions/interventions and mental health conditions. The results will generate evidence to inform policies that aim to improve migration health and universal health coverage

Functionals of the Brownian motion, localization and metric graphs

We review several results related to the problem of a quantum particle in a random environment. In an introductory part, we recall how several functionals of the Brownian motion arise in the study of electronic transport in weakly disordered metals (weak localization). Two aspects of the physics of the one-dimensional strong localization are reviewed : some properties of the scattering by a random potential (time delay distribution) and a study of the spectrum of a random potential on a bounded domain (the extreme value statistics of the eigenvalues). Then we mention several results concerning the diffusion on graphs, and more generally the spectral properties of the Schr\"odinger operator on graphs. The interest of spectral determinants as generating functions characterizing the diffusion on graphs is illustrated. Finally, we consider a two-dimensional model of a charged particle coupled to the random magnetic field due to magnetic vortices. We recall the connection between spectral properties of this model and winding functionals of the planar Brownian motion.Comment: Review article. 50 pages, 21 eps figures. Version 2: section 5.5 and conclusion added. Several references adde