Atmospheric river impacts on Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance

Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss has accelerated since the turn of the 21st century. Several recent episodes of rapid GrIS ablation coincided with intense moisture transport over Greenland by atmospheric rivers (ARs), suggesting that these events influence the evolution of GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). ARs likely provide melt energy through several physical mechanisms, and conversely, may increase SMB through enhanced snow accumulation. In this study, we compile a long‐term (1980–2016) record of moisture transport events using a conventional AR identification algorithm as well as a self‐organizing map (SOM) classification applied to MERRA‐2 data. We then analyze AR effects on the GrIS using melt data from passive microwave satellite observations and regional climate model output. Results show that anomalously strong moisture transport by ARs clearly contributed to increased GrIS mass loss in recent years. AR activity over Greenland was above normal throughout the 2000s and early 2010s, and recent melting seasons with above‐average GrIS melt feature positive moisture transport anomalies over Greenland. Analysis of individual AR impacts shows a pronounced increase in GrIS surface melt after strong AR events. AR effects on SMB are more complex, as strong summer ARs cause sharp SMB losses in the ablation zone that exceed moderate SMB gains induced by ARs in the accumulation zone during summer and in all areas during other seasons. Our results demonstrate the influence of the strongest ARs in controlling GrIS SMB, and we conclude that projections of future GrIS SMB should accurately capture these rare ephemeral events

Sea Ice Modelling

Peer reviewe

Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales

The Physical System of the Arctic Ocean and Subarctic Seas in a Changing Climate

The Earth’s climate is changing and the poles are particularly sensitive to the global warming, with most evident implications over the Arctic. While summer sea ice reduced significantly compared to the previous decades, and the atmospheric warming is amplified over the Arctic, changes in the ocean are less obvious due to its higher inertia. Still, impacts of the changing climate on high-latitude and polar oceans are already observable and expected to further increase. The northern seas are essential regions for the maintenance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which in turn is a key aspect of the maritime climate. Alterations in heat and freshwater/salinity content in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas impact and are closely linked to buoyancy flux distributions, which control the vertical and horizontal motion of water masses, thus impacting the climate system on a longer time scale. In this context, we set our focus on the Arctic Ocean and Atlantic subarctic seas, review some of the contemporary knowledge and speculations on the complex coupling between atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean, and describe the important elements of its physical oceanography. This assessment is an attempt to raise awareness that investigating the pathways and timescales of oceanic responses and contributions is fundamental to better understand the current climate change