Inverse modeling of emissions for local photooxidant pollution: Testing a new methodology with kriging constraints

International audienceA new methodology for the inversion of anthropogenic emissions at a local scale is tested. The inversion constraints are provided by a kriging technique used in air quality forecast in the Paris area, which computes an analyzed concentration field from network measurements and the first-guess simulation of a CTM. The inverse developed here is based on the CHIMERE model and its adjoint to perform 4-D integration. The methodology is validated on synthetic cases inverting emission fluxes. It is shown that the information provided by the analyzed concentrations is sufficient to reach a mathematically acceptable solution to the optimization, even when little information is available in the measurements. As compared to the use of measurements alone or of measurements and a background matrix, the use of kriging leads to a more homogeneous distribution of the corrections, both in space and time. Moreover, it is then possible to double the accuracy of the inversion by performing two kriging-optimization cycles. Nevertheless, kriging analysis cannot compensate for a very important lack of information in the measurements

Learning a Factor Model via Regularized PCA

We consider the problem of learning a linear factor model. We propose a regularized form of principal component analysis (PCA) and demonstrate through experiments with synthetic and real data the superiority of resulting estimates to those produced by pre-existing factor analysis approaches. We also establish theoretical results that explain how our algorithm corrects the biases induced by conventional approaches. An important feature of our algorithm is that its computational requirements are similar to those of PCA, which enjoys wide use in large part due to its efficiency

A new estimation of the recent tropospheric molecular hydrogen budget using atmospheric observations and variational inversion

This paper presents an analysis of the recent tropospheric molecular hydrogen (H2) budget with a particular focus on soil uptake and European surface emissions. A variational inversion scheme is combined with observations from the RAMCES and EUROHYDROS atmospheric networks, which include continuous measurements performed between mid-2006 and mid-2009. Net H2 surface flux, then deposition velocity and surface emissions and finally, deposition velocity, biomass burning, anthropogenic and N2 fixation-related emissions were simultaneously inverted in several scenarios. These scenarios have focused on the sensibility of the soil uptake value to different spatio-temporal distributions. The range of variations of these diverse inversion sets generate an estimate of the uncertainty for each term of the H2 budget. The net H2 flux per region (High Northern Hemisphere, Tropics and High Southern Hemisphere) varies between −8 and +8 Tg yr−1. The best inversion in terms of fit to the observations combines updated prior surface emissions and a soil deposition velocity map that is based on bottom-up and top-down estimations. Our estimate of global H2 soil uptake is −59±9 Tg yr−1. Forty per cent of this uptake is located in the High Northern Hemisphere and 55% is located in the Tropics. In terms of surface emissions, seasonality is mainly driven by biomass burning emissions. The inferred European anthropogenic emissions are consistent with independent H2 emissions estimated using a H2/CO mass ratio of 0.034 and CO emissions within the range of their respective uncertainties. Additional constraints, such as isotopic measurements would be needed to infer a more robust partition of H2 sources and sinks

Mud Origin, Characterisation and Human Activities (MOCHA): Final report

The cohesive sediments, which are frequently found in the Belgian nearshore zone (southern North Sea), are of different age such as tertiary clays and Holocene, modern and recently deposited muds. The area is characterised by a turbidity maximum. The source areas of the recently deposited muds and the effect of human impact vs. natural processes on the distribution and/or erosion of these sediments have been investigated using historic and recent bottom samples, in situ and remote sensing (satellite images) SPM concentration measurements, numerical modelling, GIS and clay mineral and microfossil analysis. The Schelde estuary, the potential erosion areas of cohesive sediments on the BCS and adjacent areas and the SPM transport through the Dover Strait have been considered as possible source areas.The historic bottom samples have been collected in the beginning of the 20th century, the quality of these samples and the meta-information is very high and they have proven to be a major reference to understand the evolution of the cohesive sediment distribution. The recent bottom samples consist of box core, Reineck core and Van Veen grab samples collected during the last 10 years. The processing of the historic and recent data on cohesive sediments was mainly based on field descriptions of the samples (consolidation, thickness) and morphological evolution. On some of the recent samples radioactive and gamma densitometric measurements have been carried out. During the processing the emphasis was put on the occurrence of thick layers (>30 cm) of freshly deposited to very soft consolidated mud and of clay and mud pebbles, because these sediments are witnesses of changes.Satellite images, in situ measurements and a 2D hydrodynamic numerical model have been combined to calculate the long term SPM transport through the Dover Strait and in the southern North Sea. The satellite images (SeaWiFS) provide synoptic views of SPM concentration. The representativness of SPM concentration maps derived from satellites for calculating long term transports has been investigated by comparing the SPM concentration variability from the in situ measurements with those of the satellite data. It is underlined that SPM concentration measurements should be carried out during at least one tidal cycle in high turbidity areas to obtain representative values of SPM concentration.Areas where the thickness of the Quaternary cover is less than 2.5 m were defined as potential erosion areas of Palaeogene clay containing deposits. In the framework of this project, the geological data related to the BCS have been reviewed and the relevant information was compiled into a GIS. This also included a small part of the French continental shelf. Additionally information was added from vibrocores analysis and Dutch geological data. Approximately 20 % of the BCS, 6 % of the small part of the French area and only 3% of the Dutch study area could possibly serve as a source for fine suspended sediments. Quaternary muds are mostly presented in the 2 eastern nearshore area; on the Dutch part they occur more offshore. Their occurrence represents 11% of the BCS and approximately 35% of the Rabsbank area Cretaceous microfossils are present in all samples and have been transported into the area with the residual water transport. Material from the east, in particular from the Eocene-Oligocene transitional strata, has been found in the eastern nearshore area up to about Oostende. This zone coincides with the extension of the Holocene mud and could indicate an erosion of these sediments and/or a transport of clay minerals from the Schelde estuary.Clay mineral analysis has been carried by two approaches in order to determine source areas. The results of the second approach show that no systematic differences in the clay mineralogy depending on geographic location could have been found within the samples. The results clearly prove the necessity of using more elaborate sample preparation procedures in examining the provenance of the mud deposits.Thick layers of fresh mud were deposited in the beginning of the 20th century mainly in a narrow band along the coast from about Nieuwpoort up to the mouth of the Westerschelde. These deposits were mainly the result of natural morphological changes. Today, most of the depositions of thick layers of fresh mud have been induced by anthropogenic operations, such as dumping, deepening of the navigation channels and construction and extension of the port of Zeebrugge. Comparing the actual situation with the situation 100 years ago reveals that the area around Zeebrugge where fresh mud is deposited extends more offshore today

Crossover Patient Outcomes for Targeted Lung Denervation in Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease:AIRFLOW-2

BACKGROUND: Targeted Lung Denervation (TLD) is a potential new therapy for COPD. Radiofrequency energy is bronchoscopically delivered to the airways to disrupt pulmonary parasympathetic nerves, to reduce bronchoconstriction, mucus hypersecretion, and bronchial hyperreactivity. OBJECTIVES: This work assesses the effect of TLD on COPD exacerbations (AECOPD) in crossover subjects in the AIRFLOW-2 trial. METHOD: The AIRFLOW-2 trial is a multicentre, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled crossover trial of TLD in COPD. Patients with symptomatic COPD on optimal medical therapy with an FEV1 of 30-60% predicted received either TLD or sham bronchoscopy in a 1:1 randomization. Those in the sham arm had the opportunity to cross into the treatment arm after 12 months. The primary end point was rate of respiratory adverse events. Secondary end points included adverse events, changes in lung function and health-related quality of life and symptom scores. RESULTS: Twenty patients were treated with TLD in the crossover phase and were subsequently followed up for 12 months (50% female, mean age 64.1 ± 6.9 years). After TLD, there was a trend towards a reduction in time to first AECOPD (hazard ratio 0.65, p = 0.28, not statistically significant) in comparison to sham follow-up period. There was also a reduction in time to first severe AECOPD in the crossover period (hazard ratio 0.38, p = 0.227, not statistically significant). Symptom scores and lung function showed stability. CONCLUSIONS: AIRFLOW-2 crossover data support that of the randomization phase, showing trends towards reduction in COPD exacerbations with TLD

Atmospheric constraints on the methane emissions from the East Siberian Shelf

Subsea permafrost and hydrates in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) constitute a substantial carbon pool, and a potentially large source of methane to the atmosphere. Previous studies based on interpolated oceanographic campaigns estimated atmospheric emissions from this area at 8–17 TgCH₄ yr⁻¹. Here, we propose insights based on atmospheric observations to evaluate these estimates. The comparison of high-resolution simulations of atmospheric methane mole fractions to continuous methane observations during the whole year 2012 confirms the high variability and heterogeneity of the methane releases from ESAS. A reference scenario with ESAS emissions of 8 TgCH₄ yr⁻¹, in the lower part of previously estimated emissions, is found to largely overestimate atmospheric observations in winter, likely related to overestimated methane leakage through sea ice. In contrast, in summer, simulations are more consistent with observations. Based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of the observations and of the simulations, annual methane emissions from ESAS are estimated to range from 0.0 to 4.5 TgCH₄ yr⁻¹. Isotopic observations suggest a biogenic origin (either terrestrial or marine) of the methane in air masses originating from ESAS during late summer 2008 and 2009

Twinning across the Developing World

Contains fulltext : 95481.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)5 p

Corrigendum to "Source attribution of the changes in atmospheric methane for 2006–2008" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 3689–3700, 2011

No abstract available

Safety and Adverse Events after Targeted Lung Denervation for Symptomatic Moderate to Severe COPD (AIRFLOW):A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial

International audienc

Two-Year Outcomes for the Double-Blind, Randomized, Sham-Controlled Study of Targeted Lung Denervation in Patients with Moderate to Severe COPD:AIRFLOW-2

Purpose: COPD exacerbations are associated with worsening clinical outcomes and increased healthcare costs, despite use of optimal medical therapy. A novel bronchoscopic therapy, targeted lung denervation (TLD), which disrupts parasympathetic pulmonary innervation of the lung, has been developed to reduce clinical consequences of cholinergic hyperactivity and its impact on COPD exacerbations. The AIRFLOW-2 study assessed the durability of safety and efficacy of TLD additive to optimal drug therapy compared to sham bronchoscopy and optimal drug therapy alone in subjects with moderate-to-severe, symptomatic COPD two years post randomization. Patients and Methods: TLD was performed in COPD patients (FEV1 30-60% predicted, CAT≥10 or mMRC≥2) in a 1:1 randomized, sham-controlled, double-blinded multicenter study (AIRFLOW-2) using a novel lung denervation system (Nuvaira, Inc., USA). Subjects remained blinded until their 12.5-month follow-up visit when control subjects were offered the opportunity to undergo TLD. A time-to-first-event analysis on moderate and severe and severe exacerbations of COPD was performed. Results: Eighty-two subjects (FEV1 41.6±7.4% predicted, 50.0% male, age 63.7±6.8 yrs, 24% with prior year respiratory hospitalization) were randomized. Time-to-first severe COPD exacerbation was significantly lengthened in the TLD arm (p=0.04, HR=0.38) at 2 years post-TLD therapy and trended towards similar attenuation for moderate and severe COPD exacerbations (p=0.18, HR=0.71). No significant changes in lung function or SGRQ-C were found 2 years post randomization between groups. Conclusion: In a randomized trial, TLD demonstrated a durable effect of significantly lower risk of severe AECOPD over 2 years. Further, lung function and quality of life remained stable following TLD. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02058459