Earnings Prediction with Deep Leaning

In the financial sector, a reliable forecast the future financial performance of a company is of great importance for investors' investment decisions. In this paper we compare long-term short-term memory (LSTM) networks to temporal convolution network (TCNs) in the prediction of future earnings per share (EPS). The experimental analysis is based on quarterly financial reporting data and daily stock market returns. For a broad sample of US firms, we find that both LSTMs outperform the naive persistent model with up to 30.0% more accurate predictions, while TCNs achieve and an improvement of 30.8%. Both types of networks are at least as accurate as analysts and exceed them by up to 12.2% (LSTM) and 13.2% (TCN).Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, submitted to KI202

β-Amyloid 25-35 Peptide Reduces the Expression of Glutamine Transporter SAT1 in Cultured Cortical Neurons

β-Amyloid (Aβ) peptides may cause malfunction and death of neurons in Alzheimer’s disease. We investigated the effect of Aβ on key transporters of amino acid neurotransmission in cells cultured from rat cerebral cortex. The cultures were treated with Aβ(25-35) at 3 and 10 μM for 12 and 24 h followed by quantitative analysis of immunofluorescence intensity. In mixed neuronal–glial cell cultures (from P1 rats), Aβ reduced the concentration of system A glutamine transporter 1 (SAT1), by up to 50% expressed relative to the neuronal marker microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2) in the same cell. No significant effects were detected on vesicular glutamate transporters VGLUT1 or VGLUT2 in neurons, or on glial system N glutamine transporter 1 (SN1). In neuronal cell cultures (from E18 rats), Aβ(25-35) did not reduce SAT1 immunoreactivity, suggesting that the observed effect depends on the presence of astroglia. The results indicate that Aβ may impair neuronal function and transmitter synthesis, and perhaps reduce excitotoxicity, through a reduction in neuronal glutamine uptake

The prevalence of suicidal ideation identified by the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale in postpartum women in primary care: findings from the RESPOND trial

<p>1 Abstract</p> <p>1.1 Background</p> <p>Suicide is a leading cause of perinatal maternal deaths in industrialised countries but there has been little research to investigate prevalence or correlates of postpartum suicidality. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale is widely used in primary and maternity services to screen for perinatal depressive disorders, and includes a question on suicidal ideation (question 10). We aimed to investigate the prevalence, persistence and correlates of suicidal thoughts in postpartum women in the context of a randomised controlled trial of treatments for postnatal depression.</p> <p>1.2 Methods</p> <p>Women in primary care were sent postal questionnaires at 6 weeks postpartum to screen for postnatal depression before recruitment into an RCT. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used to screen for postnatal depression and in those with high levels of symptoms, a home visit with a standardised psychiatric interview was carried out using the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised version (CIS-R). Other socio-demographic and clinical variables were measured, including functioning (SF12) and quality of the marital relationship (GRIMS). Women who entered the trial were followed up for 18 weeks.</p> <p>1.3 Results</p> <p>9% of 4,150 women who completed the EPDS question relating to suicidal ideation reported some suicidal ideation (including hardly ever); 4% reported that the thought of harming themselves had occurred to them sometimes or quite often. In women who entered the randomised trial and completed the EPDS question relating to suicidal ideation (n = 253), suicidal ideation was associated with younger age, higher parity and higher levels of depressive symptoms in the multivariate analysis. Endorsement of 'yes, quite often' to question 10 on the EPDS was associated with affirming at least two CIS-R items on suicidality. We found no association between suicidal ideation and SF-12 physical or mental health or the EPDS total score at 18 weeks.</p> <p>1.4 Conclusions</p> <p>Healthcare professionals using the EPDS should be aware of the significant suicidality that is likely to be present in women endorsing 'yes, quite often' to question 10 of the EPDS. However, suicidal ideation does not appear to predict poor outcomes in women being treated for postnatal depression.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN16479417">ISRCTN16479417</a>.</p

Feeding into old age: long-term effects of dietary fatty acid supplementation on tissue composition and life span in mice

Smaller mammals, such as mice, possess tissues containing more polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) than larger mammals, while at the same time live shorter lives. These relationships have been combined in the ‘membrane pacemaker hypothesis of aging’. It suggests that membrane PUFA content might determine an animal’s life span. PUFAs in general and certain long-chain PUFAs in particular, are highly prone to lipid peroxidation which brings about a high rate of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. We hypothesized that dietary supplementation of either n-3 or n-6 PUFAs might affect (1) membrane phospholipid composition of heart and liver tissues and (2) life span of the animals due to the altered membrane composition, and subsequent effects on lipid peroxidation. Therefore, we kept female laboratory mice from the C57BL/6 strain on three diets (n-3 PUFA rich, n-6 PUFA rich, control) and assessed body weights, life span, heart, and liver phospholipid composition after the animals had died. We found that while membrane phospholipid composition clearly differed between feeding groups, life span was not directly affected. However, we were able to observe a positive correlation between monounsaturated fatty acids in cardiac muscle and life span

Red (660 nm) and infrared (830 nm) low-level laser therapy in skeletal muscle fatigue in humans: what is better?

In animal and clinical trials low-level laser therapy (LLLT) using red, infrared and mixed wavelengths has been shown to delay the development of skeletal muscle fatigue. However, the parameters employed in these studies do not allow a conclusion as to which wavelength range is better in delaying the development of skeletal muscle fatigue. With this perspective in mind, we compared the effects of red and infrared LLLT on skeletal muscle fatigue. A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled crossover trial was performed in ten healthy male volunteers. They were treated with active red LLLT, active infrared LLLT (660 or 830 nm, 50 mW, 17.85 W/cm2, 100 s irradiation per point, 5 J, 1,785 J/cm2 at each point irradiated, total 20 J irradiated per muscle) or an identical placebo LLLT at four points of the biceps brachii muscle for 3 min before exercise (voluntary isometric elbow flexion for 60 s). The mean peak force was significantly greater (p < 0.05) following red (12.14%) and infrared LLLT (14.49%) than following placebo LLLT, and the mean average force was also significantly greater (p < 0.05) following red (13.09%) and infrared LLLT (13.24%) than following placebo LLLT. There were no significant differences in mean average force or mean peak force between red and infrared LLLT. We conclude that both red than infrared LLLT are effective in delaying the development skeletal muscle fatigue and in enhancement of skeletal muscle performance. Further studies are needed to identify the specific mechanisms through which each wavelength acts

Wasp-Waist Interactions in the North Sea Ecosystem

Background In a “wasp-waist” ecosystem, an intermediate trophic level is expected to control the abundance of predators through a bottom-up interaction and the abundance of prey through a top-down interaction. Previous studies suggest that the North Sea is mainly governed by bottom-up interactions driven by climate perturbations. However, few studies have investigated the importance of the intermediate trophic level occupied by small pelagic fishes. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the numeric interactions among 10 species of seabirds, two species of pelagic fish and four groups of zooplankton in the North Sea using decadal-scale databases. Linear models were used to relate the time series of zooplankton and seabirds to the time series of pelagic fish. Seabirds were positively related to herring (Clupea harengus), suggesting a bottom-up interaction. Two groups of zooplankton; Calanus helgolandicus and krill were negatively related to sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring respectively, suggesting top-down interactions. In addition, we found positive relationships among the zooplankton groups. Para/pseudocalanus was positively related to C. helgolandicus and C. finmarchicus was positively related to krill. Conclusion/Significance Our results indicate that herring was important in regulating the abundance of seabirds through a bottom-up interaction and that herring and sprat were important in regulating zooplankton through top-down interactions. We suggest that the positive relationships among zooplankton groups were due to selective foraging and switching in the two clupeid fishes. Our results suggest that “wasp-waist” interactions might be more important in the North Sea than previously anticipated. Fluctuations in the populations of pelagic fish due to harvesting and depletion of their predators might accordingly have profound consequences for ecosystem dynamics through trophic cascades

Coalition-structured governance improves cooperation to provide public goods

While the benefits of common and public goods are shared, they tend to be scarce when contributions are provided voluntarily. Failure to cooperate in the provision or preservation of these goods is fundamental to sustainability challenges, ranging from local fisheries to global climate change. In the real world, such cooperative dilemmas occur in multiple interactions with complex strategic interests and frequently without full information. We argue that voluntary cooperation enabled across overlapping coalitions (akin to polycentricity) not only facilitates a higher generation of non-excludable public goods, but it may also allow evolution toward a more cooperative, stable, and inclusive approach to governance. Contrary to any previous study, we show that these merits of multi-coalition governance are far more general than the singular examples occurring in the literature, and they are robust under diverse conditions of excludability, congestion of the non-excludable public good, and arbitrary shapes of the return-to-contribution function. We first confirm the intuition that a single coalition without enforcement and with players pursuing their self-interest without knowledge of returns to contribution is prone to cooperative failure. Next, we demonstrate that the same pessimistic model but with a multi-coalition structure of governance experiences relatively higher cooperation by enabling recognition of marginal gains of cooperation in the game at stake. In the absence of enforcement, public-goods regimes that evolve through a proliferation of voluntary cooperative forums can maintain and increase cooperation more successfully than singular, inclusive regimes.Supported by US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (D17AC00005), National Science Foundation grant GEO-1211972, and Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) through grants PTDC/MAT/STA/3358/2014, PTDC/EEI-SII/5081/2014, and UID/BIA/04050/2013. P.M.H. was supported by the Walbridge Fund at the Princeton Environmental Institute

Filicide in Austria and Finland - A register-based study on all filicide cases in Austria and Finland 1995-2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Filicide is the tragic crime of murdering one's own child. Previous research has found that the offending parents are commonly depressed and that suicide is often associated as an actual act or an intention. Yet, filicide is an underreported crime and previous studies have been strained with methodological problems. No comprehensive international studies on filicide have been presented in the literature until now.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a descriptive, comprehensive, register-based study of all filicides in Austria and Finland during 1995-2005. Filicide-suicide cases were also included.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most of the perpetrators were the biological mothers; in Austria 72%, in Finland 52%. Suicide followed filicide either as an attempt or a fulfilled act in 32% and 54% of the cases in Austria and Finland, respectively. Psychotic mood disorders were diagnosed for 10% of the living perpetrators in Austria, and 12% in Finland. Non-psychotic depression was diagnosed in 9% of surviving perpetrators in Austria, 35% in Finland.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The data from the two countries demonstrated that filicide is such a multifaceted and rare phenomenon that national data from individual countries seldom offer sufficient scope for its thorough study. Further analyses are needed to produce a complete picture of filicide.</p