1,547 research outputs found
Statistical mechanics of ecosystem assembly
We introduce a toy model of ecosystem assembly for which we are able to map
out all assembly pathways generated by external invasions. The model allows to
display the whole phase space in the form of an assembly graph whose nodes are
communities of species and whose directed links are transitions between them
induced by invasions. We characterize the process as a finite Markov chain and
prove that it exhibits a unique set of recurrent states (the endstate of the
process), which is therefore resistant to invasions. This also shows that the
endstate is independent on the assembly history. The model shares all features
with standard assembly models reported in the literature, with the advantage
that all observables can be computed in an exact manner.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter
Trajectories for the 1976 - 1980 Grand Tour opportunities. Volume 3 - Trajectory data for alternate Grand Tour missions
Tabulating trajectory data for alternate Grand Tour missions from earth for period 1976 to 198
Evaluating the regional potential for emissions reduction using energy storage
Energy storage is an enabler of low carbon electricity generation, however several studies have shown that its use can cause a non-trivial increase in carbon emissions even if the storage has 100% round-trip efficiency. To understand the impact of storage operation and demand response on emissions, it is necessary to determine the marginal emissions factor (MEF) at the time the storage or demand response was operated. This paper presents statistical approaches to determining regional MEFs using data on regional electricity demand and generation by fuel type, with a simple power flow model used to determine consumption emissions by region. The technique is applied to the electricity system in Great Britain in 2018. It is found that the impact of storage varies widely by location and operating mode, with the greatest emissions reductions achieved when storage is used to reduce wind curtailment in areas which consume high levels of fossil fuel generation, and the greatest emissions increases occurring where storage is used for wind balancing in areas where wind is not curtailed. The difference between the highest emissions reduction and highest emissions increase is found to be significant, at 785 gCO2 per kWh that passes through storage
Reserves Protect against Deforestation Fires in the Amazon
BACKGROUND: Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon
The impacts of oil palm on recent deforestation and biodiversity loss
Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems
Using electricity storage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
While energy storage is key to increasing the penetration of variable renewables, the near-term effects of storage on greenhouse gas emissions are uncertain. Several studies have shown that storage operation can increase emissions even if the storage has 100% turnaround efficiency. Furthermore, previous studies have relied on national-level data and given very little attention to the impacts of storage on emissions at local scales. This is an important omission, as carbon intensities can vary very significantly at sub-national scales. We introduce a novel approach to calculating regional marginal emissions factors, based on a validated power system model and regression analysis. The techniques are used to investigate the impacts of storage operation on CO2 emissions in Great Britain in 2019, under a range of operating scenarios. It is found that there are significant regional differences in storage emissions factors, with storage tending to increase emissions when used for wind balancing in areas with little wind curtailment. In contrast, the greatest emissions reductions are achieved when charging storage with otherwise-curtailed renewables and discharging to reduce peak demands in areas consuming high volumes of fossil fuel power. Over all regions and operating modes studied, the difference between the highest reduction in emissions and the highest increase in emissions is considerable, at 741 gCO2 per kWh discharged. We conclude that power system regulators should pay increased attention to the impact of storage operation on system CO2 emissions.</p
Using electricity storage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
While energy storage is key to increasing the penetration of variable renewables, the near-term effects of storage on greenhouse gas emissions are uncertain. Several studies have shown that storage operation can increase emissions even if the storage has 100% turnaround efficiency. Furthermore, previous studies have relied on national-level data and given very little attention to the impacts of storage on emissions at local scales. This is an important omission, as carbon intensities can vary very significantly at sub-national scales. We introduce a novel approach to calculating regional marginal emissions factors, based on a validated power system model and regression analysis. The techniques are used to investigate the impacts of storage operation on CO2 emissions in Great Britain in 2019, under a range of operating scenarios. It is found that there are significant regional differences in storage emissions factors, with storage tending to increase emissions when used for wind balancing in areas with little wind curtailment. In contrast, the greatest emissions reductions are achieved when charging storage with otherwise-curtailed renewables and discharging to reduce peak demands in areas consuming high volumes of fossil fuel power. Over all regions and operating modes studied, the difference between the highest reduction in emissions and the highest increase in emissions is considerable, at 741 gCO2 per kWh discharged. We conclude that power system regulators should pay increased attention to the impact of storage operation on system CO2 emissions.</p
Quantifying the connectivity of a network: The network correlation function method
Networks are useful for describing systems of interacting objects, where the
nodes represent the objects and the edges represent the interactions between
them. The applications include chemical and metabolic systems, food webs as
well as social networks. Lately, it was found that many of these networks
display some common topological features, such as high clustering, small
average path length (small world networks) and a power-law degree distribution
(scale free networks). The topological features of a network are commonly
related to the network's functionality. However, the topology alone does not
account for the nature of the interactions in the network and their strength.
Here we introduce a method for evaluating the correlations between pairs of
nodes in the network. These correlations depend both on the topology and on the
functionality of the network. A network with high connectivity displays strong
correlations between its interacting nodes and thus features small-world
functionality. We quantify the correlations between all pairs of nodes in the
network, and express them as matrix elements in the correlation matrix. From
this information one can plot the correlation function for the network and to
extract the correlation length. The connectivity of a network is then defined
as the ratio between this correlation length and the average path length of the
network. Using this method we distinguish between a topological small world and
a functional small world, where the latter is characterized by long range
correlations and high connectivity. Clearly, networks which share the same
topology, may have different connectivities, based on the nature and strength
of their interactions. The method is demonstrated on metabolic networks, but
can be readily generalized to other types of networks.Comment: 10 figure
Search in weighted complex networks
We study trade-offs presented by local search algorithms in complex networks
which are heterogeneous in edge weights and node degree. We show that search
based on a network measure, local betweenness centrality (LBC), utilizes the
heterogeneity of both node degrees and edge weights to perform the best in
scale-free weighted networks. The search based on LBC is universal and performs
well in a large class of complex networks.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, minor changes, added a referenc
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