Correlated Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and Radar Observations of the Initial Stages of Florida Triggered Lightning Discharges

We characterize the geometrical and electrical characteristics of the initial stages of nine Florida triggered lightning discharges using a Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), a C-band SMART radar, and measured channel-base currents. We determine initial channel and subsequent branch lengths, average initial channel and branch propagation speeds, and channel-base current at the time of each branch initiation. The channel-base current is found to not change significantly when branching occurs, an unexpected result. The initial stage of Florida triggered lightning typically transitions from vertical to horizontal propagation at altitudes of 3-6 km, near the typical 0 C level of 4-5 km and several kilometers below the expected center of the negative cloud-charge region at 7-8 km. The data presented potentially provide information on thunderstorm electrical and hydrometeor structure and discharge propagation physics. LMA source locations were obtained from VHF sources of positive impulsive currents as small as 10 A, in contrast to expectations found in the literature

Modification of the Sandia National Laboratories/California advanced coordinate measuring machine for high speed scanning

The Moore M48V high accuracy coordinate measuring machine (CMM), while mechanically capable of exact measurement of physical artifacts, is not, in its original configuration, well suited for rapid gathering of high density dimensional information. This report describes hardware and software modifications to the original control and data acquisition system that allow relatively high speed scanning of cylindrical features. We also estimate the accuracy of the individual point data on artifacts measured with this system and provide detailed descriptions of the hardware and software apparatus as an aid to others who may wish to apply the system to cylindrical or other simple geometries. 6 refs., 18 figs., 1 tab

NASA-UVA Light Aerospace Alloy and Structures Technology Program: LA(2)ST

The NASA-UVA Light Aerospace Alloy and Structures Technology (LA(2)ST) Program continues a high level of activity, with projects being conducted by graduate students and faculty advisors in the Departments of Materials Science and Engineering, Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, and Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the University of Virginia. This work is funded by the NASA-Langley Research Center under Grant NAG-1-745. We report on progress achieved between July 1 and December 31, 1992. The objective of the LA(2)ST Program is to conduct interdisciplinary graduate student research on the performance of next generation, light weight aerospace alloys, composites and thermal gradient structures in collaboration with NASA-Langley researchers. Specific technical objectives are presented for each research project. We generally aim to produce relevant data and basic understanding of material mechanical response, corrosion behavior, and microstructure; new monolithic and composite alloys; advanced processing methods; new solid and fluid mechanics analyses; measurement advances; and critically, a pool of educated graduate students for aerospace technologies

Measuring the acceleration of a rigid body

Two methods to measure the six-degree-of-freedom acceleration of a point on a rigid body are presented. The first, referred to as the periphery scheme, makes use of three clusters of accelerometers mounted orthogonal to each other and coincident with the axes of the point. One of the clusters consists of the three accelerometers attached to a cube-shaped triaxial angular rate sensor (ARS). The second method, called the compact cube scheme, uses a single 3-accelerometer/ARS cluster that may be mounted anywhere on the rigid body. During impact tests with an instrumented rigid body, both methods produced measurements that were highly correlated near the time of peak acceleration. Whereas the compact cube scheme was more economical and easier to implement, the periphery scheme produced results that were less disrupted by instrument signal errors and noisy environments

A Climate Index Optimized for Longshore Sediment Transport Reveals Interannual and Multidecadal Littoral Cell Rotations

A recent 35-year endpoint shoreline change analysis revealed significant counterclockwiserotations occurring in north-central Oregon, USA, littoral cells that extend 10s of kilometers in length.While the potential for severe El Niños to contribute to littoral cell rotations at seasonal to interannual scalewas previously recognized, the dynamics resulting in persistent (multidecadal) rotation were unknown,largely due to a lack of historical wave conditions extending back multiple decades and the difficulty ofseparating the timescales of shoreline variability in a high energy region. This study addresses this questionby (1) developing a statistical downscaling framework to characterize wave conditions relevant for longshoresediment transport during data-poor decades and (2) applying a one-line shoreline change model toquantitatively assess the potential for such large embayed beaches to rotate. A climateINdex was optimizedto capture variability in longshore wave power as a proxy for potentialLOngshore Sediment Transport(LOST_IN), and a procedure was developed to simulate many realizations of potential wave conditions fromthe index. Waves were transformed dynamically with Simulating Waves Nearshore to the nearshore asinputs to a one-line model that revealed shoreline rotations of embayed beaches at multiple time and spatialscales not previously discernible from infrequent observations. Model results indicate that littoral cellsrespond to both interannual and multidecadal oscillations, producing comparable shoreline excursions toextreme El Niño winters. The technique quantitatively relates morphodynamic forcing to specific climatepatterns and has the potential to better identify and quantify coastal variability on timescales relevant to achanging climate.This work would not have been possible without funding from the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) through NSF grant DGE-1314109, the Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications (COCA) program through NOAA grant NA15OAR4310243, NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA), under NOAA grant NA15OAR4310145, and the Spanish Ministerio de Educación Cultura y Deporte FPU (Formación del Profesorado Universitario) studentship BOE-A-2013-12235. Beach survey data collection undertaken on the Oregon coast was made possible by the Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems (NANOOS) through NOAA grant NA16NOS0120019

Evaluation of ENTLN Performance Characteristics Based on the Ground Truth Natural and Rocket-Triggered Lightning Data Acquired in Florida

The performance characteristics of the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) were evaluated by using as ground truth natural cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data acquired at the Lightning Observatory in Gainesville (LOG) and rocket-triggered lightning data obtained at Camp Blanding (CB), Florida, in 2014 and 2015. Two ENTLN processors (data processing algorithms) were evaluated. The old processor (P2014) was put into use in June 2014 and the new one (P2015) has been operational since August 2015. Based on the natural-CG-lightning data set (219 flashes containing 608 strokes), the flash detection efficiency (DE), flash classification accuracy (CA), stroke DE, and stroke CA for the new processor were found to be 99%, 97%, 96%, and 91%, respectively, and the corresponding values for the old processor were 99%, 91%, 97%, and 68%. The stroke DE and stroke CA for first strokes are higher than those for subsequent strokes. Based on the rocket-triggered lightning data set (36 CG flashes containing 175 strokes), the flash DE, flash CA, stroke DE, and stroke CA for the new processor were found to be 100%, 97%, 97%, and 86%, respectively, while the corresponding values for the old processor were 100%, 92%, 97%, and 42%. The median values of location error and absolute peak current estimation error were 215 m and 15% for the new processor, and 205 m and 15% for the old processor. For both natural and triggered CG lightning, strokes with higher peak currents were more likely to be both detected and correctly classified by the ENTLN

Benthic ecology of semi-natural coastal lagoons, in the Ria Formosa (Southern Portugal), Exposed to different water renewal regimes

Several studies in semi-natural coastal lagoons in the Ria Formosa lagoonal system have been carried out. These man-made water reservoirs behave as small lagoons with one opening to the tidal channels, which may be intermittent. Because of their size, these reservoirs are ideal sites for ecological studies. Water quality and macrobenthic fauna were analysed in five water reservoirs. All reservoirs received the same incoming water through a tidal channel, but they differed in water renewal regime. Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) and Discriminant Analysis were used to evaluate the similarity among sites, stations and sampling occasions. Different levels of taxonomic resolution (family, large taxonomic groups and phylum level) were also evaluated. The separation of sites and stations became unclear using high taxonomic levels. Results from the multivariate analyses suggest a slight differentiation of the stations according to sampling occasion but a clear differentiation of the several water reservoirs. Some of the lagoons studied with low water renewal rates showed strong environmental variations. They were characterised by low diversity indexes and abundance of small-sized organisms. Other lagoons, with high water renewal rates, showed low environmental variation and well diversified and structured benthic communities. The main environmental factor that seems to affect the benthic communities was the variation in salinity between neap and spring tides, which is related with the water renewal regime. Coastal lagoons offer a protected shallow habitat, which can be highly productive. Well structured communities, controlled by k-strategists, can develop and settle in leaky lagoons, that is, lagoons with wide entrance channels and tidal currents which guarantee a good water renewal. In these lagoons, biomass can accumulate in large organisms. In contrast, lagoons with a single narrow entrance, that may be closed for long periods, are characterised by persistent physical stress and are dominated by communities of small-sized r-strategists

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no”. To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder